The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 21 points to 12,632.91 (-0.16%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 2 points (0.07%) to 2,813.84, and the S&P 500 fell -0.05% or less than 1 point to 1,312.40.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) raised to ‘buy’ at Argus; Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) cut to ‘neutral’ at Goldman Sachs; Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) started as ‘buy’ at Jefferies; Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) reiterated as ‘buy’ and target price raised to $80 at Argus; and Range Resources Corp. (NYSE: RRC) raised to ‘hold’ from ‘sell’ with a target price of $59 at Canaccord Genuity.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Anixter Inc. (NYSE: AXE) is down -3.7% at $65.25; ARM Holdings PLC (NASDAQ: ARMH) is up 1.7% at $28.84; Celanese Corp. (NYSE: CE) is down -0.95% at $48.84; Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) is up 1.35% at $39.78; Exxon Mobil is down -1.98% at $83.80; Helmerich & Payne Inc. (NYSE: HP) is up 2.2% at $61.64; L-3 Communications Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LLL) is up 1.3% at $70.49; McGraw-Hill Cos. Inc. (NYSE: MHP) is down -0.5% at $46.09; Mattel Inc. (NYSE: MAT) is up 5.1% at $31.04 after posting a new 52-week high today of $31.49; Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is down -0.8% at $21.42; and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is down -0.73% at $24.10.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Vringo Inc. (NASDAQ: VRNG) is up nearly 21% at $1.40. The social media software maker is apparently basking in the glow of the coming IPO of Facebook. See our coverage here.

RadioShack Corp. (NYSE: RSH) is down nearly -30% at $7.19 after setting a new 52-week low of $7.15 earlier today. The social media software maker is apparently basking in the glow of the coming IPO of Facebook. See our coverage here.

Verifone Systems Inc. (NYSE: PAY) is up more than 8% at $42.61. The payment systems maker is getting a boost from a plan by Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) to subsidize the installation of new card readers that use a microchip rather than a magnetic stripe to store customer information.

Rare Element Resources Ltd. (AMEX: REE) is up more than 17% at $7.22. The rare earth minerals miner is likely gaining after a ruling from the WTO that China’s restriction on rare earth minerals’ exports violates global trade rules.

FriendFinder Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: FFN) is up about 19% at $1.26. The adult social media company is likely also being bought up on the prospective Facebook IPO.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. Automakers will be releasing sales figures for January throughout the day. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 7:00 a.m. – Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications
• 7:30 a.m. – Challenger Job-cut data
• 8:15 a.m. – ADP employment report
• 10:00 a.m. – ISM manufacturing index
• 10:00 a.m. – Construction spending
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report

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Paul Ausick

We have provided estimates from Thomson Reuters on each and offered commentary and guidance on some of these companies.  More detailed previews will be available Tuesday morning for the reports due after the closing bell.  The current previews are below:

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) has seen shares back off of highs and the stock is down more than 20% from its year high and all-time high.  The estimates are $0.19 EPS and $18.2 billion.  The Kindle will be a huge focus, but the concern is that the company has been allowing its margins to get crushed far to much for far too long.

ARM Hldgs PLC (NASDAQ: ARMH) is key now that it powering so many smartphones, finally living up to its ambitions of the last decade.  As a reminder, these earnings are translated from British Pounds, and estimates are $0.14 EPS and $193.3 million in revenues.

Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) is effectively the second largest pure biotech company and it finally outperformed in 2011.  Estimates are $1.49 EPS and $1.29 billion in sales.  The new screening test to determine if MS patients using TYSABRI are at risk of developing PML has been undercovered by our take.

Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) was recently given a huge and successful pop after a Jim Cramer tout.  Estimates are $0.65 EPS and $1.8 billion in sales.

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) has a relatively low bar set after Chevron’s earnings stank up the place last week.  Thomson Reuters has estimates for the DJIA component of $1.95 EPS and $119.7 billion in sales.  Keep in mind that revenues are not as widely covered as earnings per share.  Estimates have ticked down by $0.03 in just the last few days.

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is going to show just what happens to earnings with Lipitor now being off-patent.   Pfizer has estimates out there of $0.47 EPS and $16.61 billion in revenues.

Seagate Tech Inc. (NASDAQ: STX) has already risen off of guidance but the Thai flooding and PC flux right now create ongoing wild cards.  The disk drive maker is expected to post earnings of $1.07 EPS and $3.14 billion in revenues.

United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) is expected to report earnings of $1.26 EPS on sales of $14.45 billion.  We will be looking for additional information on past price hikes in the new climate.

United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X) recently announced that its production in Slovakia was returning to a 5-day week from a 4-day week due to demand and after labor agreement negotiations.  The estimates are a large loss at -$0.84 EPS on $4.73 billion in sales.  While it has bounced, U.S. Steel is still down by half from a year ago.

Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) is holding up better than we would have guessed if you have watched refining margins of late.  Estimates are for a loss at -$0.17 EPS on $32.3 billion in sales.

JON C. OGG

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up nearly 97 points to 12,720.48 (0.76%), the NASDAQ fell nearly 2 points (-0.06%) to 2,786.70, and the S&P 500 rose a bare 0.07% or less than 1 point to 1,315.37.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Google maintained as ‘buy’ but target price cut to $700 at Canaccord Genuity; Johnson Controls Inc. (NYSE: JCI) cut to ‘neutral’ at JPMorgan; Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) reiterated as ‘buy’ with $35 target price at Argus; Tractor Supply Co. (NASDAQ: TSCO) reiterated as ‘buy’ and target price raised to $92 at Argus; and Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) cut to ‘market perform’ at Wells Fargo.

Earnings reports since markets closed yesterday have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Google is down -8.78% at $583.39; Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) is up 2.75% at $26.33; IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM) is up 4.48% at $188.61; Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) is up 1.42% at $7.06; American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) is down -1.94% at $49.96; General Electric is down -0.21% at $19.11; Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB is up 0.74% at $73.40; and Suntrust Banks Inc. (NYSE: STI) is up 4.79% at $21.21.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Insmed Inc. (NASDAQ: INSM) is up nearly 30% at $4.94. The biotech company announced that the FDA has lifted a clinical hold on a lung disease drug.

The Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB) is up nearly 18% at $3.17. The clothing retailer is rumored to be under consideration for a takeover by two private equity firms.

Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) is up nearly 14% at $49.25. The general merchandise retailer is thought to be under consideration for a takeover offer from its largest shareholder.

NCI Inc. (NASDAQ: NCIT) is down nearly -32%, after posting a new 52-week low of $7.71 earlier today. The federal contractor will restructure to compensate for loss of contracts.

Cogent Communications Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CCOI) is down nearly -18% at $15.45. The network communications provider is suffering from the shutdown last night of the Megaupload.com website, one of Cogent’s largest customers, by federal authorities.

Stay tuned for Monday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 11:30 a.m. – 3-month and 6-month Treasury bill auctions

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Have a great weekend.

Paul Ausick

BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) Reiterated Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Maintained Buy but cut target to $700 at Canaccord Genuity.
Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
ICICI Bank Ltd. (NYSE: IBN) Cut to Underperform and named Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) Cut to Hold at Kaufman; Reiterated Outperform and raised target to $35 at Credit Suisse; Maintained Hold with $24 target at Canaccord Genuity.
JDS Uniphase Corporation (NASDAQ: JDSU) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Johnson Controls Inc. (NYSE: JCI) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
NCI. Inc. (NASDAQ: NCIT) Cut to Underperform at Wells Fargo.
Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. Co. (NYSE: TNP) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Texas Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ: TXN) Cut to Hold at Needham.
Tractor Supply Co. (NASDAQ: TSCO) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $92 at Argus.
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) Reiterated Buy with $35 price target at Argus.
Western Union Co. (NYSE: WU) Reiterated Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL) lowered targets and estimates by Credit Suisse.

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JON C. OGG

In its announcement Tesoro pointed out the obvious problem:

The discount of WTI to Brent during the fourth quarter narrowed by $18/bbl, dropping from $26/bbl at the end of September to $8/bbl at the end of December. This market price movement impacts fourth quarter results in two ways. First, by reducing benchmark margins at our refineries that run WTI-priced barrels and, second, by reducing the margin on long-haul foreign crude oil barrels indexed to WTI.

Every independent refiner will get hit by this to some degree and we’ve taken a look at what the impact on each might be.

Valero is expected to post EPS of $0.84 in the fourth quarter. The country’s largest refiner owns 16 refineries with a daily throughput volume of 3 million barrels. It is also one of the world’s largest makers of ethanol. Half the refineries are located along the US Gulf Coast, and in the company’s latest investor presentation, WTI margins had fallen from around $26/barrel to around $15/barrel. The company’s Brent margins have stayed relatively flat, at around $10-$11/barrel. To counteract that somewhat, Valero expects to refine about 75,000 barrels/day from the Eagle Ford shale play in the first quarter of 2012. The company is also planning to expand its distillate production to capture the higher margins available from diesel fuel, especially in Europe. Valero hasn’t said anything yet about its fourth quarter earnings, but the company’s stock is down nearly -4% on Tesoro’s report. If Valero revises its earnings estimate — which is likely — another drop of at least that amount is likely.

Marathon completed its spin-off from parent Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO) last June. The company owns six refineries and 51% of the company’s crude supply comes from either the US or Canada. The company’s WTI-Brent differential was nearly $23/barrel in the third quarter of this year compared with less than $3.50/barrel in 2010. No data is available for the fourth quarter, but it’s difficult to see how Marathon can avoid getting caught in the same bind as Tesoro and Valero.

Western Refining owns two refineries with a total throughput of 151,000 barrels/day. The company’s operating margin through the first three quarters of 2011 is around $20/barrel. All of Western’s crude is domestically sourced and priced as WTI. This is a nice advantage when Brent pricing is more than $25/barrel higher, but as the differential narrows, Western has to come up with some other way to make profits. This company could get stung badly on WTI pricing.

CVR Energy owns two refineries with a combined throughput of 185,000 barrels/day. Both are located in the Midwest and about 75% of the feedstock is domestically sourced WTI. CVR gets some portion of its feedstock from the Bakken area, which gives the company an additional break on crude pricing because Bakken crude trades at a small discount to WTI. Rising WTI prices will certainly hurt margins for CVR, but probably not as badly as the narrower differential will hurt other refiners.

One last word about Conoco, which is planning to spin-off its refining operations into a separate company. The spin-off was set to happen by mid-2012, but unless refining margins return to what they were last summer, Conoco might have a hard time convincing investors that they’re getting a good deal from the split.

Paul Ausick

The lack of Congressional action ends the $0.45/gallon blender’s credit on US-produced ethanol and the $0.54/gallon tariff on imported ethanol. US ethanol producers Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM), Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX), and Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRE) had already seen the writing on the wall and are not likely to feel any appreciable pain from the end of the subsidies. Brazilian cane-based ethanol maker Cosan Ltd. (NYSE: CZZ) and its partner, Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE: RDS-A) have also been making a profit exporting ethanol to the US in spite of the tariff.

The end of the subsidy does not end the federal mandate on the use of alternative fuels for transportation. Earlier this week we looked at the nonsensical mandate adopted by Congress in 2007 that calls for 200 million gallons of alternative fuels to blended with gasoline in 2012. Virtually every drop will come from ethanol, and the producers really don’t need a subsidy on top of a mandate to make a profit. The mandate alone will do quite nicely, thank you very much.

Paul Ausick

In 2010, the mandate was lowered for that year to 6.5 million gallons and for 2012, the mandate set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has been set at 8.5 million gallons. Companies like Codexis Inc. (NASDAQ: CDXS), Amyris Inc. (NASDAQ: AMRS), Gevo Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO), Solazyme Inc. (NASDAQ: SZYM) and Kior Corp. (NASDAQ: KIOR) have so far failed to reach production levels anywhere near mandated levels. Traditional corn-ethanol makers like Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM), Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) and Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX) continue to supply the vast majority of nonpetroleum based fuels.

Refiners are required either to use cellulosic ethanol or to pay $1.20/gallon for the privilege of not using it. Because so little is available, refiners end up paying for something they cannot buy at any price.

Most biofuels makers have turned to producing specialty chemicals for the cosmetics and pharmaceuticals industries in order to make some revenue. Truth be told, a gallon of a cosmetic component is far more costly than a gallon of cellulosic ethanol, so these companies continue to work on developing substitute chemicals. The payback from these is more certain and nearer in time than is trying to scale up manufacturing of biofuels and facing uncertain political and distribution issues.

To show how hard things have been, the share price of many pure-play stocks pretty much sums it all up:

• Codexis trades at $5.53 and its 52-week trading range is $3.91 to $12.24.
• Amyris trades at $11.16 and its 52-week trading range is $9.90 to $33.99.
• Gevo trades at $5.59 and its 52-week trading range is $5.18 to $26.36.
• Solazyme trades at $11.27 and its 52-week trading range is $7.68 to $27.47.
• KiOR trades at $9.31 and its 52-week trading range is $8.88 to $23.85.

Paul Ausick

The US Department of Agriculture is forecasting a global corn crop of 867.5 million metric tons and analysts survey by Bloomberg News are forecasting a price of $4.305/bushel next year. Corn is trading today at about $6.20/bushel.

Demand for meat is driving the demand for corn and wheat as feed for cattle, pigs, and chickens, with total demand for feed expected to reach 640.6 million metric tons in the crop season ending next Spring.

The US share of the booming corn crop will decrease to less than 50% for the first time in 40 years.

Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) shares closed down more than -9% on the day. Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC) closed down nearly -12%, Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO) closed down nearly -10%, and Western Refining Inc. (NYSE: WNR) was off -13.5%. CVR Energy, Inc. (NYSE: CVI) shares plunged more than -16%.

The major integrated oil companies with refining operations also experienced a down day, with Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) off about -1%, Conoco down about -3%, Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) down about -2%, and BP plc (NYSE: BP) down about -0.5%.

All this carnage over a 150,000 barrel/day pipeline that currently carries almost no oil from the Gulf Coast to the storage tanks at Cushing, Oklahoma, and will not be reversed until sometime later next year. The US consumes about 9 million barrels/day of crude just for transportation use, so less than 2% of that crude should not have such an outsized effect on refiner stocks.

The Seaway pipeline transaction, the other 50% of which is owned by Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE: EPD), was merely the trigger. Refiners’ profits have been strong in recent months as those with access to WTI and cheaper crudes have been able to price the refined output based on Brent crude input costs. The differential once reached nearly $28/barrel. The price difference closed to about $11/barrel yesterday and is around $8/barrel this morning.

Brent prices are falling, but not as fast as WTI prices are rising. The reversal of the Seaway pipeline means that landlocked WTI can now get to the Gulf Coast refineries where it will be priced the same as Brent. As the two crude prices converge, refiners will not be able to feast off that differential.

Another factor weighing against the refiners is the start-up of the Bakken Oil Express, a tank-car train running from North Dakota to Louisiana. The first train-load of crude left North Dakota on November 7th with 70,000 barrels, with current rail capacity of 100,000 barrels/day expected to increase to 250,000 barrels/day. Rail transport of crude and refined products has risen by more than 9% in the past year, to about 7,600 tank-cars/week.

The price of Brent is falling because production from Libya has ramped quickly, to reach about 700,000 barrels/day already, more than half its total production before the upheaval of last Spring. Full production of 1.3 million barrels/day could be reached before mid-2012, again keeping downward pressure on Brent pricing.

The final factor pushing WTI prices up is the tentative agreement between TransCanada Corp. (NYSE: TRP) and the state of Nebraska on a new route for the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada to the Gulf Coast. This pipeline could carry up to 1.1 million barrels/day when (if) it is built. Because Canada’s synthetic crude is priced even lower than WTI, getting this pipeline into service is critical to oil sands producers who want to see the differential between synthetic crude and WTI/Brent close if not disappear altogether.

TransCanada has said that it is considering moving ahead with the section of the Keystone XL that runs from Cushing to the Gulf Coast and Enterprise has said that it will scrap plans for a new pipeline from Cushing to the Gulf but now plans to expand the Seaway pipeline to as much as 400,000 barrels/day by 2013. The two pipelines combined could carry nearly 1 million barrels/day from Cushing to the Gulf.

That million barrels represents crude that would not need to be imported by ship to the Gulf, but rather than lowering crude prices, it would raise them. That raises refiners’ input costs and raises the price of gasoline at the pump for consumers.

BP and Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE: RDS-A) probably stand to gain the most of any of the integrated oil companies from the new outlets to the Gulf. Shell is a big producer from the oil sands and BP is upgrading its refinery in Indiana to process the heavy Canadian synthetic crude, as well as owning production properties in the US midwest.

Refiners’ stocks are likely to take more losses today, though not as bad as the beating they got yesterday. Big oil companies could lose a bit more today, but the rising price for crude more than offsets any hits to their refining operations.

Paul Ausick

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is down nearly -9%, at $22.67. Valero and other refiners’ stocks got hit with a narrowing of the gap between WTI and Brent crudes, as well as an announcement by Enbridge Inc. (NYSE: ENB) that it is buying a 50% stake in the Seaway pipeline from ConocoPhillips Corp. (NYSE: COP) and reversing the pipeline’s flow to carry 150,000 barrels/day of crude from Cushing, Oklahoma, to the Gulf Coast.

Western Refining Inc. (NYSE: WNR) is down more than -13%, at $13.47, and Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC) is down about -11%, at $32.91.

Novagold Resources Inc. (AMEX: NG) is up more than 23.5%, at $10-.89. The company has appointed a new CEO to start in January and also announced that it would spin-off a subsidiary, NovaCopper, to current NovaGold shareholders.

Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX) is up more than 3%, at $1.37. The company announced that it has fully retired $35 million in senior convertible notes.

Amtech Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: ASYS) is down more than -17%, at $8.59. The company issued a statement that it expects to post $21-$23 million in sales for the third quarter, where analysts had been expecting revenue of $50 million.

Unilife Corp. (NASDAQ: UNIS) is down about -12.5%, at $4.17. The company priced a secondary stock offering of 8.25 million shares at $4.35, well below yesterday’s closing price of $4.76.

Stay tuned for Thursday. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank president Sandra Pianalto and New York Fed president William Dudley are giving speeches tomorrow afternoon. Here’s a list of other noteworthy events (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – Housing starts
• 8:30 a.m. – Initial unemployment benefits claims
• 10.00 a.m. – Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s October business outlook survey
• 10:00 a.m. – E-commerce retail sales
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas status report
• 1:00 p.m. – 10-year TIPS auction
• 4:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve balance sheet and money supply report

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