We have shown how Credit Suisse’s price targets compare to the consensus targets and shown price history as well to give investors a feel for what the price targets might imply.  Other color has been added in if applicable.

Oil States International Inc. (NYSE: OIS) is in the Energy Equipment & Services sector.  Credit Suisse’s Arun Jayaram has an Outperform rating on the stock and it has been on the top picks list since September under the growth category.  Shares are trading at $75.00 and the $110.00 price target objective implies upside of almost 47%.  Thomson Reuters has a $95.92 consensus price target on Oil States and Credit Suisse has the “street high” target.  It should be worth noting that shares tanked in the summer sell-off and they have now recovered actually by about 50% since the September-October selling climax.

Read Also: Top Biotech Stocks For 2012

Owens-Illinois, Inc. (NYSE: OI) is in the Metal and Glass Containers sector and Credit Suisse’s Al Kabili has an Outperform rating and it is listed as a value stock.  This stock was added to the top picks list in mid-December.  At $18.65, there is an implied upside of almost 61% to the firm’s $30.00 price target. Interestingly enough, the consensus price target from Thomson Reuters is $28.11 and the highest target from other analysts is $32.00. It looks like there are still many bullish analysts here on this one outside of Credit Suisse. The summer sell-off was brutal here as shares were more than cut in half at the extreme point before recovering recently.

Rosetta Resources, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROSE) is in the Oil and Gas Exploration and Production segment.  Credit Suisse’s Mark Lear has an Outperform rating and calls ita growth stock.  At $44.00, there is an implied upside of 52% to the firm’s $67.00 price target.  The Thomson Reuters consensus price target is $58.64 and the year high is $58.04.  There are some other analysts with far higher expectations as there is one price target as high as $82.00 on the stock.  This one has been an aggressive earnings growth name and that is expected to remain in 2012.

Read Also: Small Caps With 50% Upside in 2012

WABCO Holdings Inc. (NYSE: WBC) is into braking, stability, suspension, and transmission control systems primarily for commercial vehicles. Credit Suisse’s Peter Chang has an Outperform rating on Wabco as a growth stock.  The $43.00 share price today leaves an implied 53% upside to the firm’s $66.00 price target.  This one has been very volatile as the 52-week range is $34.17 to $75.00.  Credit Suisse is only a tad more bullish than the consensus as Thomson Reuters has a median price target of $63.71 and the highest analyst price target is $71.00. 

Cobalt International Energy, Inc. (NYSE: CIE) is now just a “runner-up” in the Oil and Gas Exploration and Production segment and Credit Suisse’s Edward Westlake has an Outperform rating.  This one was added as a fresh addition to the top picks list in December, but investors have effectively missed this one.  It had 50% implied upside to the $17.00 price target at the time, but now shares have risen to $15.98.  If it matters, Thomson Reuters has a higher consensus price target of $18.40 on the stock.

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JON C. OGG

Boingo Wireless, Inc. (NASDAQ: WIFI) Started as Outperform at William Blair.
Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE: COG) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) Cut to Underperform at RBC.
Cost Plus, Inc. (NASDAQ: CPWM) called the daily Value Stock at Zacks.
Demand Media, Inc. (NYSE: DMD) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) Started as Underperform at RBC.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) Reiterated Buy with $97 target at Canaccord Genuity.
JDS Uniphase Corporation (NASDAQ: JDSU) called Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Juniper Networks, Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC.
MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Started as Underperform at RBC.
SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
WABCO Holdings Inc. (NYSE: WBC) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Wendy’s/Arby’s Group, Inc. (NYSE: WEN) Raised to Buy at UBS.
Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) Reiterated Buy with $62 target at Argus.
Zions Bancorporation (NASDAQ: ZION) Raised to Outperform at KBW.

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JON C. OGG

Buffett has gone higher up the food chain and is likely to be a creditor now inside or to large institutions.  We have seen this during the crisis.  Buffett negotiated a better deal for Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) than the US Government was able to get.  Buffett’s preferred stock in Goldman Sachs has a dividend of 10% and is callable at any time at a 10% premium; but Buffett also got warrants to purchase $5 billion of common stock with a strike price of $115.00 per share, exercisable for a five-year term (4 years now), and Buffett would effectively get to pocket $61 per share if he exercised those all today at the market (and with a $2.6 billion warrant profit alone).

The General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) stake was listed only as 7.77 million shares of common stock (about $125 million now), the same as it has been for quarters.  Yet last year Buffett came to the rescue with a $3 billion of perpetual preferred stock in a private offering with a dividend of 10% and warrants to purchase $3 billion of common stock.  The preferred is callable after 3-years (2 years now) at a 10% premium; the warrants have a strike price of $22.25 and are exercisable for a five-year term (4 years now).

Two other investments in preferred or note offerings made in the last year during the financial crunch were in Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) in February via 10% senior notes and in Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) with a 15% rate.  Neither of these are in the Buffett equity holdings.

Buffett increased his holdings in Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) to 37.8 million shares versus 19.9 million shares.  This could easily be hiked from about $1.9 billion today to almost infinity with its $208 billion market cap.  With over 10% officially unemployed in the U.S., Wal-Mart has become the shopping destination of millions more of Americans and that value and thrift trend is not likely to end any time soon.

Then there is the ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) bet that Buffett got his timing very wrong on.  He cut his stake again here to 57.4 million shares versus almost 62.5 million shares and still has the tax benefit for selling.  He added Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) with a 1.27 million share stake.  As Exxon is the largest company by market cap at $357 billion, this is much easier for Buffett to invest into rather than $79 billion market cap today in ConocoPhillips.

The Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) stake which he grew yet again is worth over $8.7 billion, and Buffett could probably insert more money there through time if it gets cheap again.  Then there is the new Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) position of 3.625 million shares ($100 million today) where Buffett is just investing alongside buddy Bill Gates now that Gates’ entity has a board seat there and a huge stake.

Then there are the overseas bets, and these are just some:

• $2.5 billion into diversified Swiss Reinsurance Co. Ltd.
• $4 billion to buy control of Iscar Metalworking in Israel
• $230 million for a 10% stake in BYD for electric batteries in China
• $144 million or so stake in Nestle

Buffett lent $4.4 billion to Mars for the Wrigley buyout.  He also lent Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) $3 billion for part of the Rohm & Haas deal. As noted earlier, Buffett is going higher up the food chain.  In fact, he is almost becoming the default alternative investment bank.  And he has cut down and exiting equity positions as well.

Eaton Corp. (NYSE: ETN), in power management, and WABCO Holdings (NYSE: WBC), in parts and systems for mostly commercial vehicles, were dropped entirely this last quarter.  It seems as though Buffett is also systematically exiting the Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) position now that the business model has changed.  He still holds too much there, but maybe better late than never.

Buffett is also not betting against the Obama health care plan as he cut his stakes in both Wellpoint Inc. (NYSE: WLP) and UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH). It will be interesting to see if Buffett hangs on to those drug company stakes in GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK), at 1.51 million shares, and Sanofi Aventis (NYSE: SNY), of more than 3.9 million shares.

Then when considering Buffett’s comments about the poor future of print media, you have to wonder if the Oracle of Omaha just won’t take his licks in Gannett Co. Inc. (NYSE: GCI) worth only about $39 million today and Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO) worth $730 million today.

It still seems obvious that Buffett would like to hold a large utility as a wholly owned subsidiary.  That may be his next ‘whale of a deal’ after he builds his cash back up over $20 billion.  Buffett got burned on his dollar bet before, but he is active internationally.  The BNSF deal is arguably a China-coal bet rather than an “all-in bet on the future of America,” assuming that is not symbiotic.  This now makes Berkshire Hathaway even more of a financial and transport operation, with far less emphasis on public common stock bets.  And he is going higher on the food chain. It will alsways be interesting to see how Buffett invests the Berkshire Hathaway fortune.  But what is obvious is that he is starting to get out of the way of some bets and make more concentrated bets elsewhere.  The new Berkshire Hathaway is more of a financial and transportation operator now… more than ever… that is also acting as private investment banker.  The investment changes over the last year are showing more of a penchant for debt and being higher up the food chain than just common stock in the U.S.

This all acts to make Berkshire Hathaway more predictable in operations and even more of a true conglomerate.  And it makes the passive investments a bit more opaque.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear more news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, key analyst calls, and more.

Again, here is the full list of Buffett & Berkshire Hathaway US public stock holdings.

JON C. OGG
November 19, 2009

• Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) 96.3 million, the same as before.
• Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) 3.625 million shares; NEW POSITION following Bill Gates.
• Sanofi Aventis (NYSE: SNY) more than 3.9 million shares, same as before.
• Sun Trust Bank (NYSE: STI) 3.079 million shares; DOWN FROM 3.2+ the quarter before.
• Torchmark Corp. (NYSE: TMK) roughly 2.82 million, same as before.
• Travellers Cos (NYSE: TRV) 27,336; NEW POSITION but small.
• US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) roughly 69 million; Same as quarter before.
• USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) 17.072 million shares, same as before.
• United Health Group (NYSE: UNH) 3.4 million shares; DOWN from 4.5 million last quarter and down from over 6 million in Q1.
• Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP) 9.55 million shares, same as quarter before but this does not matter as Buffett is dumping his non-BNSF rail holdings.
• United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) 1.429 million shares, same as before.
• Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) 37.8 million; WAY UP from the 19.9+ million shares last quarter.
• Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) over 1.72 million shares, same as before.
• Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) 313.3 million shares; ABOVE THE PRIOR 302+ million last quarter and above the 290+ million in Q1.
• Wellpoint Inc. (NYSE: WLP) 3.394 million; DOWN SLIGHTLY from the 3.5 million last quarter and from the 4.7773 million in Q1.
• Wesco Financial Corp. (NYSE: WSC) 5.7 million shares, same as before.

WABCO Holdings (NYSE: WBC) IS GONE after being 2.7 million shares last quarter.

BUFETT HOLDINGS ‘A to F’

BUFFETT HOLDINGS ‘G to O’

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JON C. OGG

• Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) 96.3 million, same as before.
• Sanofi Aventis (NYSE: SNY) more than 3.9 million shares, looks same as before.
• Sun Trust Bank (NYSE: STI) more than 3.2 million shares, same as before.
• Torchmark Corp. (NYSE: TMK) roughly 2.82 million, same as before.
• US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) roughly 69 million is same as before after it had been raised in Q1.
• USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) 17.072 million shares, same as before.
• United Health Group (NYSE: UNH) 4.5 million; down from over 6 million.
• Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP) 9.55 million shares, same as Q1 after growing the Q1 over Q4 position.
• United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) 1.429 million shares, same as before.
• WABCO Holdings (NYSE: WBC) 2.7 million shares, same as before.
• Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) over 19.9 million shares, same as before.
• Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) over 1.72 million shares, same as before.
• Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) over 302 million; ABOVE the 290+ million shares the quarter before.
• Wellpoint Inc. (NYSE: WLP) 3.5 million; DOWN from the 4.7773 million shares in Q1.
• Wesco Financial Corp. (NYSE: WSC) 5.7 million shares, same as before.

BUFETT HOLDINGS ‘A to F’

BUFFETT HOLDINGS ‘G to O’
JON C. OGG
AUGUST 14, 2009

Some of these positions could include ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Constellation Energy Group, Inc. (NYSE: CEG), Gannett Co. Inc. (NYSE: GCI), Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO), M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB) and WABCO Holdings (NYSE: WBC).  There are others, such as his stakes in drug and health care sectors that could have been mentioned, but those big directional bets may have to wait until after health care reform is enacted.   As you will see, we listed the reasons that Buffett should or could cut the stakes.

On the Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) model, the new regulation is going to create a crippling impact on its business.  Being paid by a company or a municipality to analyze and rate that same entity is a conflict of interest.  That is what penny stocks have gotten in trouble for time and again. New regulation is going to keep these firms from doing some of the added consulting business, and that is going to bite down on these ratings agencies.  And missing the whole mortgage blow-up?  Moody’s can’t exactly call a do-over and it cannot claim they were misled by every aspect of the chain when they handed out all those Triple-A ratings for some of the junkiest classes of CDO’s and other securitizations.  Frankly, the only positive development here is that Moody’s and the other ratings agencies were not abolished.  They still have relevance, but they arguably have a much smaller revenue stream on the surface.  So we wanted to apply some of the significant changes in industries and companies that Buffett holds inside Berkshire Hathaway to see which companies Buffett should clip down.  The writing was on the wall for so long that shares fell by more than two-thirds in less than 18 months.  We think Buffett will be taking this stake down considerably.

Based upon the market of late, share prices alone cannot be the only yardstick used to measure these.  Particularly since Buffett believes you want to be greedy when everyone is fearful.  These stake sales could even raise capital if Berkshire needs it.  With all the calls for a second stimulus package, we took this as a signal that Buffett was guiding down operational forecasts for what to expect inside his operating companies and in many of his holdings.

The first and most likely position Buffett could cut is ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP).  We already noted in his last report of full holdings that Conoco is really lower than the 71.228 million reported.  Buffett even came out and said he made a huge mistake and this stock was going to be used for cutting taxes.  To us, the only question comes down to whether the Oracle of Omaha cuts the stake down to under 20 million shares or if he pulls the plug on the entire lot.  Frankly, this one does offer significant upside if and when energy prices return to loftier levels and we think Buffett should hold on to the stake.  The issue is that he’s already said he’ll probably more of these shares even if they rise.  Buffett could still capture another $2 billion in capital here if he just took his stake down to right under 20 million shares.

Constellation Energy Group, Inc. (NYSE: CEG) has been a fluke of a stock for Berkshire.  Buffett won this as a poker game collateral pledge after Berkshire Hathaway’s MidAmerican Energy tried to buy Constellation.  It received about 20 million shares in the break-up as a deal termination fee after Constellation went with a rival deal from EDF from France in a joint venture instead.  Buffett has already cut this, and we saw filings showing this was a smaller stake of about 12.4 million shares rather than the 14.8+ million as of the last filing date.  In the Constellation stake, Buffett could bring in roughly $365 million in new cash.

Gannett Co. Inc. (NYSE: GCI) and Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) are in the same boat.  Buffett made a media bet and he has been riding a horse than cannot or has not been able to fight the tide.  He has even panned newspapers and some traditional media in an interview as having a model that is on a race to zero.  If this is true then the only question is why Buffett has stuck with these.  It is not as though Buffett needs them to stay friendly to Berkshire Hathaway.  On the Gannett stake, that is 3.447 million shares that would fetch some $20.3 million today.  Frankly, that small of a stake is not worth his time even if he thinks media is coming back.  The Washington Post stake is more interesting because it has held up better than most in media because it has education sales rather than just pure media. Berkshire entities hold over 1.72 million shares, so this could raise almost $700 million.  While we list this here as ones that Buffett could sell, the old guy might have a change of heart and buy more while these are at basement prices.  With Buffett owning Business Wire, does he need the content side when he owns the premiere distribution side?  The estimated intake from these two today would bring in $720-ish million in cash.

The 6.71 million shares of M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB) listed under Berkshire Hathaway’s holdings is one that M&T’s management probably does not appreciate us calling out as a sell-candidate for Mr. Buffett.  In fact, we have no call against M&T personally nor do we have anything against it today even as a stock on a standalone basis.  The problem here is that Buffett’s circa-$390 million value in this holding is dwarfed by a $7.25 billion stake in Wells Fargo.  With his other banking and financial holdings, Buffett’s need for this one is not apparent.  We have heard Buffett talk about Wells Fargo over and over as a great bank but have not heard a peep about M&T in any recent years.  Add in his recent deal with Goldman Sachs, and that will leave you with Buffett’s new model in investing in financial institutions.  The sale of this stake would allow Buffett to bring in close to $390 million.

WABCO Holdings (NYSE: WBC) is still a 2.7 million share stake.  The company is tied to autos, but not entirely tied to the US-auto sector.  It is primarily in safety and control systems for commercial vehicles,  particularly on breaking systems.  The market cap is a mere $1.3 billion, so the question to ask is just how much Buffett and friends can pocket here even if this is the Holy Grail in the commercial auto parts sector.  This “Berkshire Sell” notion is not tied to the auto sector, but we just don’t see how this stake is worth Mr. Buffett’s time or effort.  If he wants to have exposure in various aspects of the auto sector, he could go into one of the larger government-backed or one of the other players and invest higher in the capital structure.  If Buffett were to cut this one out of his portfolio, he’d bring in roughly $54 million in cash.

Let’s pretend Buffett unloaded all of these positions.  The tally in just these positions would raise close to $3.5 billion in cash.  Some of these positions are essentially legacy positions.  Buffett has also been going higher up into the capital structure in many of his recent investments so he is above the common stock holders.  He could immediately use the funds to buy more of some other smaller holdings he would like to add to.  Or he could add it into the till for that “whale of a deal” he had previously telegraphed that he would like to pursue.

You can always join our open email distribution list to get reminders about Buffett, IPO’s, mergers, secondary offerings, daily analyst calls and more.  As always, here is the full list of Buffett holdings.  We expect that to change in roughly three weeks.

Jon C. Ogg
July 27, 2009

• Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) 96.3 million, same as before.
• Sanofi Aventis (NYSE: SNY) more than 3.9 million shares, looks same as before.
• Sun Trust Bank (NYSE: STI) more than 3.2 million shares, same as before.
• Torchmark Corp. (NYSE: TMK) roughly 2.82 million, same as before.
• US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) roughly 69 million; ABOVE last quarter’s 67.6 million.
• USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) 17.072 million shares, same as before.
• United Health Group (NYSE: UNH) 4.5 million; down from over 6 million.
• Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP) 9.55 million shares, above our 8.9 million noted before.
• United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) 1.429 million shares, same as before.
• WABCO Holdings (NYSE: WBC) 2.7 million shares, same as before.
• Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) over 19.9 million shares, same as before.
• Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) over 1.72 million shares, same as before.
• Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) over 302 million; ABOVE the 290+ million shares the quarter before.
• Wellpoint Inc. (NYSE: WLP) 4.7773 million shares, same as before.
• Wesco Financial Corp. (NYSE: WSC) 5.7 million shares, same as before.

Here is the full list of Buffett holdings “A to F”
Here is the full list of Buffett holdings “G to O”

Jon C. Ogg
May 15, 2009

• Sanofi Aventis (NYSE: SNY) more than 3.9 million shares, same as before.
• Sun Trust Bank (NYSE: STI) more than 3.2 million shares, same as before.
• Torchmark Corp. (NYSE: TMK) looks roughly the same at 2.82 million.
• US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) about 67.6 million shares, down from over 72.9 million last quarter.
• USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) 17.072 million shares, looks same as last quarter.
• Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP) 8.9 million shares, same as before.
• United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) 1.429 million shares, same as before.
• WABCO Holdings (NYSE: WBC) 2.7 million shares, same as before.
• Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) over 19.9 million shares, same as before.
• Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) over 1.72 million shares, same as before.
• Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) roughly 290.4 million shares, looks same as before.
• Wellpoint Inc. (NYSE: WLP) 4.7773 million shares, same as before.
• Wesco Financial Corp. (NYSE: WSC) 5.7 million shares, same as before.

BUFFETT HOLDINGS “A to G”
BUFFETT HOLDINGS “H to R”

Jon C. Ogg
February 17, 2009

• Torchmark Corp. (NYSE: TMK) 2.82 million
• US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) over 72.9 million; looks UP from June
• USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) 17.072 million shares (same)
• Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP) 8.9 million shares (same)
• United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) 1.429 million shares (same)
• WABCO Holdings (NYSE: WBC) 2.7 million shares (same)
• Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) over 19.9 million shares (looks same)
• Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) over 1.72 million shares (same)
• Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) roughly 290.4 million shares (looks same, but likely larger now)
• Wellpoint Inc. (NYSE: WLP) 4.7773 million shares (same)
• Wesco Financial Corp. (NYSE: WSC) 5.7 million shares (same)

BUFFETT HOLDINGS "A to H"
BUFFETT HOLDINGS "I to S"

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Jon C. Ogg
November 14, 2008

• Torchmark Corp. (NYSE: TMK) more than 3.51 million shares in multiple lots
• US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) more than 68 million shares in multiple lots
• USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) 17.07 million shares
• Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP) 8.9 million shares
• United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) 1.429 million shares
• WABCO Holdings (NYSE: WBC) 2.7 million shares
• Wal-Mart Stores inc. (NYSE: WMT) over 19.9 million shares in multiple lots
• Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) over 1.72 million shares in multiple lots
• Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) over 290 million shares in multiple lots
• Wellpoint Inc. (NYSE: WLP) 4.8 million shares
• Wesco Financial Corp. (NYSE: WSC) 5.7 million shares

We have also pulled out the other Buffett & Berkshire holdings in two separate groups:
Those grouped as A to G
Those grouped as H to S

Jon C. Ogg
August 14, 2008