It takes a lot for an active stock of an already established company to see the price of its shares double. In fact, it usually means that a company has posted a significant recovery or that something incredible happened that wasn’t factored into traditional investment models. Stocks that double are also frequently deemed as clunkers full of problems that staged a significant recovery. But that has also been used as a description for many key companies like Apple and many more.
We created a primary list recently (see below), but our screen of stocks that could double yielded over 50 candidates and we wanted to run some of the less active stocks in this category. Almost all of these are still quite active, so only a few may not ring a bell. Here is the second list of stock candidates that could double with the explanations if the stars line up right inside each company or if certain outside developments come to fruition:
- Capstone Turbine (NASDAQ: CPST); Dialysis Corp. of America (NASDAQ: DCAI); Palomar Medical Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PMTI); Qwest Communications International Inc. (NYSE: Q); Sanmina-SCI Corp. (NASDAQ: SANM); Smith & Wesson Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: SWHC); Travelzoo Inc. (NASDAQ: TZOO); YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW); Websense Inc. (NASDAQ: WBSN); Xinhua Finance Media Ltd. (NASDAQ: XFML).
Capstone Turbine (NASDAQ: CPST) is one of those stocks which could actually make a significant comeback. This one used to trade many multiples higher. We’ve covered this one in our "10 Stocks Under $10 Newsletter" for subscribers. It was at $1.25 or $1.30 at the time and shares now sit close to $1.70. This company is now producing revenues and its turbines are getting significant interest. The initial re-screen on this one came to us after Lazard Capital Markets gave this a call for the stock to double to $2.50 in its alternative energy coverage. After we dug around and reviewed all the past data and put in our own thoughts on alternative energy, we think that instead of this hitting $2.50 that it has a shot at being able to surge past that level. This is highly dependent upon it announcing new orders, and recent customer order activity has us behind this one.
Dialysis Corp. of America (NASDAQ: DCAI) is another company that has fallen from grace. Shares were north of $30.00 back in 2005 and it’s seen its share of ugliness since then. Shares are currently close to three-year lows. A double from today’s prices would barely get it above the $14.16 52-week high. The $78 million market cap makes this one trade close to three-times book value and under one-times 2008 revenues. But we think that the company may actually have to go do a dilutive capital raise first so it can open more facilities. This has severe risks tied to reimbursement rates, so any cuts in that area would drive this lower. The problem of today’s treatment is that kidney dialysis is really the only option for renal patients with kidney failure and there isn’t another viable alternative widely available to the masses and widely covered by insurance.
Palomar Medical Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PMTI) is a risky cosmetic laser maker that could roar or flop in 2008. With shares under $16.00, this stock could double and still be down more than 40% from its $55 highs seen earlier in 2007. It and P&G (NYSE: PG) recently agreed to extend the Launch Decision of a home-use, light-based hair removal device for women until no later than February 29, 2008 in place since February 2003. Gillette had until January 7, 2008 to make the Launch Decision and it is likely that this will end exclusivity. Lasers are a competitive business and it will have to really ramp its sales overseas for this to double again. But if the company gets another critical supply deal and if it secures this current P&G deal in limbo, then this could become one of the explosive growth prospects again. If not, well then this could slide further down even if many feel the worst has been priced in.
Qwest Communications International Inc. (NYSE: Q) has had a rough time since September and it has only traded above $10.00 for a very brief time period in the last 5-years. But it recently reestablished its dividend, and the ‘perceived’ yield was actually higher than the dividend of land-line rivals Verizon (NYSE: VZ) and AT&T (NYSE: T). Shares are also about 75% higher than the mid-point of its old trading range from 2003 to 2005. It still has a $13 Billion market cap, so it will take many institutional buyers to believe in this one for it to be a double. But the performance of its two top rivals has not been sustained as far as the stocks go. Its lack of a wireless offering has also been thought of as a hole in the business plan and analysts would either have to raise their targets or make cuts on valuation if Qwest got back to $10.00. Any upside would make the valuations on Qwest seem paltry. If the company wouldn’t have made its recent dividend gesture we would have passed on this one. But that sure made us think more good news was coming because a dividend is not meant to be a one-time event for companies.
Sanmina-SCI Corp. (NASDAQ: SANM) is an EMS (electronics manufacturing services) company where tech and non-tech companies come to have it manufacture for them. It owns factories all over the world and it has been in a turnaround for quite some time. If the company can make that turn then for this to double after a rough week the stock would still not even be at its 52-week highs. We covered this in our "10 Stocks Under $10" and its market cap has dipped back under that $1 Billion mark. There are some pretty big risks that it won’t be able to turn around, so this one is a real coin toss. The company has moved from being perceived as a tech-only manufacturer as it serves medical, defense & aerospace, automotive, and more. Any major win could make this one turn or it could always become a potential acquisition from some of the other larger EMS players.
Smith & Wesson Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: SWHC) is one of the only gun plays in the entire U.S. That is a bad spot right now as shares are down 75% from their highs. So for this to double it would still be down 50% from its 52-week highs. The company had already been in trouble as a stock goes, but then it failed to impress in October and then warned again for 2008 in early December. Those each took nearly half of the value away each time. What is interesting is that with a weak consumer and weakening economy expected in 2008, this could scare people about crime if lower-income wage jobs start to dry up. That could make more homeowners want to buy a gun. With a presidential election around the corner, we wouldn’t be shocked to see a rush of buyers try to load up on any remote gun desires if they feared that 2009 or 2010 might bring about stronger gun controls. That HAS happened before. We don’t know if it will come about again. That why this is a COULD rather than a WILL.
Travelzoo Inc. (NASDAQ: TZOO) could end up being a Hail Mary pass for 2008 after posting a dismal 2007. Shares are barely above 52-week lows and this stock would basically have to rise 200% before it took out its 52-week high of $40.68. It only trades at about 17-times 2008 projected earnings and it is still expected to have revenue gains. The beast of the sector is Priceline.com (NASDAQ: PCLN) and that stock has risen nearly five-fold over the last 24 months. The company has what is deemed one of the lower-end online travel package and search features out there, but the beauty of the web is that ANY company can end up with a killer app or major consumer draw that sucks customers back to it. That might not be the case and we think management isn’t as sharp as at other online travel sites. But one bit of good news here could make this skyrocket with a flood of day traders, and it has over 25% of its float listed as being in the short interest. It has also been the subject of takeover rumors in the past.
YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ:YRCW) is one of our favorite trucking stocks as a go-to play in the sector. The problem is that this sector just stinks right now and it has made warning after warning besides its CEO being generally very openly cautious. But with shares at $17.00 and a trailing P/E of under 10, any upside surprise or even any ‘less bad’ news might make this look like the old flying trucks commercials from the early 90’s. In fact, if YRCW stock doubled from here it would still be $13.00 short of its 52-week highs. In January 2005 this even traded north of $60.00. Are the rest of the bad headlines out? No. We think times will remain tough. But at some point Wall Street realizes an overreaction and quickly fixes it. This one may linger and may continue to slide. So when or from level it doubles off of is anyone’s guess. If that CEO would just be upbeat on TV once rather than negative, that might send the signal to others to buy as well. Lastly, this one could actually be a takeover candidate.
Websense Inc. (NASDAQ: WBSN) is one of the old Internet hi-flyers that got sleepy and then became a Rip Van Winkle of a sleeper. With this being back close to $16.00, a double would only take it back to its highs at the end of 2005 and start of 2006. But the company has still managed to grow while its shares have slumbered and its $400 million market cap is not ridiculous compared to sales estimates of $226 million expected for 2007 or more than $300 million for 2008. It trades at less than 19-times 2007 EPS and less than 15-times 2008 earnings, yet EPS growth is expected to be 25%. The company’s strength is also its weakness: it has the best enterprise-wide web filtering mechanism for enterprise Internet and Intranet access out there, but IT buyers have noted over and over how it is also quite expensive compared to second rate services. Is it fair to hint that Larry Ellison & Co. at Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) or that his rivals like SAP AG (NYSE:SAP) or Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) might consider buying it? Probably not. But if a buyer stepped in they’d be getting a very valuable set of customers. The company could always make a strategy of creating a more mainstream web filtering product that smaller organizations can afford or justify. As web 2.0 applications are bandwidth intensive and as they become more and more prevalent, companies with bandwidth intensive businesses may also have to increase their web filtering efforts.
Xinhua Finance Media Ltd. (NASDAQ: XFML) is another stock that could garner a double if it can prove it is worthy. But we want to warn you that it could also see another 50% drop. It was a runner up on the "Worst IPO’s of 2007" this week and many investors are not convinced that all the bad stuff out there is fully reflected in today’s prices. But the Chinese financial and traditional media could end up being a major sleeper as media is still very under-penetrated in China where it is located. Management is also fairly well heeled in the media circles in China and its media properties and ancillary services all hold significant values independently if it wanted to divest into a more focused company (unlikely to us). If Xinhua Finance Media doubled from today’s prices it still would be short of that $13.00 high. 2008 is either going to be a year of forgiveness and acceptance, or it is going to hurt. This one is risky enough that we might only want to look at long-dated (May) calls to limit any potential downside if there are more land mines in this one.
- Our previous 10 STOCKS THAT COULD DOUBLE is as follows: AMD, BSX, CHTR, ETFC, DNDN, KBH, LVLT, PALM, SIRI, VG.
- Keep in mind that many of these stocks are also risky and might not make a turnaround. We also came up with a list of stocks that COULD FALL 50% IN 2008 under the right circumstances (BIDU, BIDZ, C, CFC, F, JRC, LDK, MU, PMCS, VMW).
Jon C. Ogg
December 28, 2007
You can join our free email distribution list to get previews for other issues around IPO’s, spin-offs, merger-arb, turnarounds, and more. Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
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