As the first of the U.S. coal miners to report — and the largest — Peabody’s results offer an opportunity to look at Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: ANR), Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI), CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX), James River Coal Co. (NASDAQ: JRCC), Walter Energy Inc. (NYSE: WLT) and Cloud Peak Energy Inc. (NYSE: CLD). All these stocks are getting a boost today from Peabody’s results.

In its press release, Peabody noted a decline in Australian pricing in the quarter, but a rise in shipments. U.S. revenues were down 12% on a 6% drop in shipments. But Peabody expects a change going forward.

For the remainder of 2013, Peabody expects coal to recapture the “majority” of the demand it lost to natural gas in 2012. Rising U.S. prices for natural gas have returned coal to is low-cost status as a fuel for power generation. Demand from coal-fired plants rose 15% in March, while natural gas demand fell by 16%.

Given Peabody’s surprising results, a look at the other coal miners might provide some insight into the sector ahead of more earnings reports. Unlike Peabody, none of these firms has Australian operations to figure into the equation.

Alpha Natural Resources is expected to post an EPS loss of $0.59 on revenues of$1.32 billion. The company’s expected loss has narrowed from $0.67 three months ago, but given Peabody’s drop in shipments, Alpha’s revenue, projected to drop more than 30% year-over-year in the first quarter, could be weaker than expected. Alpha reports earnings on May 1.

The consensus first-quarter estimates for Arch Coal calls for an EPS loss of $0.34 on revenues of $912.03 million. The expected loss has widened from $0.30 in the past three months, and the revenue estimate is 12% lower than last year’s first quarter total. Arch reports earnings next week.

CONSOL Energy is expected to post first-quarter EPS of $0.18 on revenues of $1.25 billion. The EPS estimate has come down $0.02 in the past three months, and the estimated EPS is way down from $0.42 in the same period a year ago. CONSOL has been somewhat insulated from the harsh treatment for coal because the company also produces natural gas and some liquids. CONSOL reports results next week.

James River is expected to post an EPS loss of $1.63 on revenues of $192.64 million when it reports earnings on April 29. Revenues are expected to be nearly a third lower than a year ago and EPS is more than three times worse. Analysts expect little from James River this quarter, and it is very likely the company will deliver on those expectations.

Walter Energy is expected to post an EPS loss of $0.88 on revenues of $505.55 million when it reports on earnings on May 1. Expectations have fallen from an EPS loss of $0.48 just three months ago. In the first quarter a year ago, Walter Energy posted EPS of $0.65.

Cloud Peak reports earnings on April 30 and is expected to post EPS of $0.28 on revenues of $353.29 million. Revenues are expected to be down more than 5% year-over-year, and EPS expectations to have fallen from $0.37 just three months ago. Over the past 12 months, however, Cloud Peak is the only one of these companies to put up share price growth. Shares are up about 34%, compared to a drop of 70% at Walter, 64% at James River, 55% at Alpha, 49% at Arch, 27% at Peabody and about 5% at Consol.

Peabody’s shares are up 9% just before noon today, at $20.43 in a 52-week range of $18.56 to $31.97.

Alpha’s shares are up 5.3%, at $7.21 in a 52-week range of $5.28 to $17.30.

Arch’s shares are up 8.8%, at $4.95 in a 52-week range of $4.47 to $10.26.

CONSOL’s shares are up 4.4%, at $32.70 in a 52-week range of $26.41 to $37.39.

James River’s shares are up 6.8%, at $1.74 in a 52-week range of $1.46 to $5.89.

Walter Energy’s shares are up 2.2%, at $18.95 in a 52-week range of $18.21 to $69.41.

Cloud Peak’s shares are up 4.3%, at $18.95 in a 52-week range of $13.65 to $22.31.

The U.S. dollar index rose 0.44% today, now at 81.417. The GSCI commodity index is down 1.1% at 668.28, with commodities prices mostly lower today on the stronger dollar. WTI crude oil closed down 2.5% today, at $92.84 a barrel, following a sharp rise in crude inventory (more coverage here). Brent crude trades down 1.7% at $113.64 a barrel. Natural gas is down 1.1% today at about $3.24 per million BTUs following a brief rise following today’s storage report (more coverage here). Gold settled up fractionally today at $1,578.60 an ounce, its first rise in six days.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 47 points to 13,880.01 (-0.34%), the NASDAQ fell almost 33 points (-1.04%) to 3,131.49, and the S&P 500 fell -0.63% or more than 9 points to 1,502.38.

There were a several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) price target raised to $1,000 at Bernstein (more coverage here); Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) raised to ‘buy’ at Citigroup; BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE: BHP) cut to ‘neutral’ at Citigroup; Groupon Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) raised to ‘overweight’ and price target raised to $8.00 at Piper Jaffray; and UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH) raised to ‘outperform’ at Oppenheimer.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night resulted in several price moves today, including these: Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) is up 2% at $14.90; Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP) is down 0.4% at $46.67; Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS) is up 6.3% at $16.55; Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is down 9% at $35.06 (more coverage here); Walter Energy Inc. (NYSE: WLT) is down 7.1% at $34.16; Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY) is up 5.2% at $15.15; Carlyle Group LP (NASDAQ: CG) is down 7.3% at $33.98; Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) is down 0.4% at $20.16 (more coverage here); Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp. (NYSE: CDE) is up 2.8% at $19.34; Ensco PLC (NYSE: ESV) is down 1.2% at $62.47; Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) is up 14.3% at $23.00 after posting a new 52-week high of $23.96 earlier today (more coverage here); and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is up 1.8% at $70.48 (more coverage here).

After markets close today and before they open tomorrow morning we are scheduled to hear from Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU), American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG), Frontier Communications Inc. (NYSE: FTR), Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ), Marvell Technology Group Inc. (NASDAQ: MRVL), Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF), and Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE: EGO).

Some standouts from today include the following stocks:

VeriFone Systems Inc. (NYSE: PAY) is down 43.3% at $18.09 after posting a new 52-week low of $17.93 earlier today. The payment systems maker cut its guidance sharply. More coverage here.

ParkerVision Inc. (NASDAQ: PRKR) is up 72.4% at $4.19 after posting a new 52-week high of $4.24 earlier today. The RF technology provider got a favorable court ruling in its patent infringement case against Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM). More coverage here.

Repros Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: RPRX) is up 26.6% at $12.89. The development stage biopharma company got FDA approval for study on its testosterone drug. More coverage here.

Stay tuned for Friday. Fed Governor Jerome Powell and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren are giving speeches. No data releases are scheduled for tomorrow.

The U.S. dollar index rose 0.75% today, now at 81.065. The GSCI commodity index is down 0.5% at 675.63, with commodities prices higher today. WTI March crude oil closed down 2.2% today, at $94.46 a barrel. The April contract closed down 1.9% at 95.22 and will be the source of the WTI quote for the next month. Brent crude trades down at 1.7% at $115.52 a barrel. Natural gas is up 0.4% today at about $3.28 per million BTUs. Gold settled down 1.6% today at $1,578.00 an ounce.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 109 points to 13,926.47 (-0.78%), the NASDAQ fell about 49 points (-1.53%) to 3,164.41, and the S&P 500 fell -1.24% or about 19 points to 1,511.90.

There were a several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Windstream Corp. (NASDAQ: WIN) cut to ‘sell’ at UBS; Lowe’s Companies (NYSE: LOW) reiterated as ‘buy’ and price target raised to $44 at Argus; Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) cut to ‘underperform’ at CLSA; Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) cut to ‘neutral’ at Goldman Sachs; and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) reiterated as ‘buy’ and price target raised to $54 at Argus.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night resulted in several price moves today, including these: Analog Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) is down 2.2% at $45.98; CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) is down 5.3% at $206.88; Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) is up 0.25% at $XX (more coverage here); Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE: HLF) is down 5% at $37.77 (more coverage here); Avista Corp. (NYSE: AVA) is down 0.2% at $26.15; Clean Harbors Inc. (NYSE: CLH) is up 6.1% at $53.37; Dish Network Corp. (NASDAQ: DISH) is down 0.25% at $36.00; Leap Wireless International Inc. (NASDAQ: LEAP) is down 8.3% at $5.61; MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) is down 1.5% at $12.55; Sodastream International Ltd. (NASDAQ: SODA) is down 6.8% at $48.90 (more coverage here); and Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) is down 8.7% at $33.71 (more coverage here).

After markets close today and before they open tomorrow morning we are scheduled to hear from Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX), Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP), Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS), Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), Walter Energy Inc. (NYSE: WLT), Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY), Carlyle Group LP (NASDAQ: CG), Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) (more coverage here), Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp. (NYSE: CDE), Ensco PLC (NYSE: ESV), Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY), and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT).

Some standouts from today include the following stocks:

OfficeMax Inc. (NYSE: OMX) is down 11.8% at $11.47 after posting a new 52-week high of $14.92 earlier today. The office supply retailer and Office Depot Inc. (NYSE: ODP) finally pulled the trigger on their merger after one false start this morning. Office Depot shares are down 22.1% at $3.91. More coverage here.

Netspend Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: NTSP) is up 28.6% at $15.80 after posting a new 52-week high of $15.96 earlier today. The pre-paid credit card provider has agreed to be acquired by Total System Services Inc. (NYSE: TSS) for about $1.4 billion in cash ($16 a share).

Harvest Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: HNR) is down 40% at $5.50. The oil & gas junior said today that a planned sale to Indonesia’s Pertamina has been cancelled. More coverage here.

Stay tuned for Thursday. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, San Francisco Fed President John Williams, and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher are giving speeches. We have also noted the following events on Tuesday’s schedule (all times Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – Consumer price index
8:30 a.m. – New claims for unemployment benefits
8:58 a.m. – Flash PMI manufacturing index
10:00 a.m. – Existing home sales
10:00 a.m. – Philadelphia Fed survey
10:00 a.m. – Leading indicators
10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas storage report
11:00 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report
1:00 p.m. – 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected securities (TIPS) auction
4:30 p.m. – Fed balance sheet and money supply

The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) loss for the quarter was just $0.19, compared with an estimate for a loss of $0.55. Revenues of $1.56 billion were slightly better than the consensus estimate of $1.55 billion.

Investors are taking hope from the company’s statement that it expects to benefit from an “eventual recovery” in the global market for metallurgical coal. And production costs are forecast to fall to an annual range of $71 to $75 per ton for eastern U.S. coal from an average of $75.84 a ton in the fourth quarter of 2012. In the fourth quarter of 2011, average costs were $81.21, but the company has closed several mines in the past year that contributed to the company’s falling costs.

When Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU) reported earnings a couple of weeks ago, its poor showing dragged all the bigger coal stocks down. Same thing happened when Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) reported earnings a few days later. Consol Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX), James River Coal Co. (NASDAQ: JRCC), Walter Energy Inc. (NYSE: WLT) and Cloud Peak Energy Inc. (NYSE: CLD) tagged along for the most part.

This morning, Alpha’s shares are up about 13.7% at $9.65 in a 52-week range of $5.28 to $21.19. Shares of Peabody are up 2.8%, Consol’s shares are up 1.6%, Arch Coal is up 4.1%, Walter Energy shares are up 2.2%, James River is up 6.8% and Cloud Peak is down 0.4%, probably because when the company reported earnings last night they did not quite live up to expectations.

Coal stocks are almost like solar stocks these days. Each reacts to good or bad news about a competitor in the same way they would react if the news was just about itself. If there is money to be made in the sector it is on volatility, not on holding for the long term. In any but the shortest term, coal’s place as a fuel for electricity generation in the United States is on a continual downtrend and should remain there over the long haul.

And when one coal miner coughs, they all catch a cold. Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU) dragged the sector down last week when it reported quarterly results, and Arch’s results are having the same effect. Peabody’s shares are down about 2.5% today, Consol Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX) is seeing its shares down about 0.3%, and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: ANR) is down more than 2%. James River Coal Co. (NASDAQ: JRCC) is up about 0.7%, while Walter Energy Inc. (NYSE: WLT) is down about 2.3% and Cloud Peak Energy Inc. (NYSE: CLD) is down fractionally.

Demand for Arch’s thermal coal has fallen off the table as mild weather and cheap natural gas continue to throttle demand. The company now expects volume shipments of about 141 million tons in 2013, down from 155 million tons in 2012. Production at Consol has dropped from 62 million tons in 2011 to an estimated 55.5 million to 57.5 million tons for 2013. That’s one reason Consol is putting more effort and investment into its natural gas assets.

Like Peabody, Arch said today that it is “seeing signs” of a possible recovery in the domestic coal market in the second half of 2013. Those signs will evaporate unless natural gas prices move closer to $4 per million BTUs. Today’s price is about $3.34 per million BTUs, and the outlook for the first half of 2013 does not indicate an average price above $4.

After a good night’s sleep, investors have bid the stock down about 4.5% today and the drop has taken the other coal miners along for the ride. Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: ANR) is down about 2.9% today, Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) is down 3.8%, Consol Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX) about 1%, James River Coal Co. (NASDAQ: JRCC) is down about 4.4%, Walter Energy Inc. (NYSE: WLT) about 1.8%, and Cloud Peak Energy Inc. (NYSE: CLD) is down 2.2%.

Peabody forecast higher costs in Australian operations and lower sales and pricing in the U.S. in the first quarter. The company sold 248.5 million tons of coal last year, near the high end of its 2013 forecast of 230 to 250 million tons. Peabody expects U.S. coal shipments to rise as natural gas costs rise and power plants switch back to coal-fired generation. The problem with that conclusion is that natural gas prices have been falling again.

Consol Energy said earlier this month that it would change the focus of its capital investments to natural gas production and will invest twice as much in gas as it will in coal. That news also dragged down coal stocks. Try as it might, the coal sector is still having trouble finding the silver lining.

The company’s CEO said:

[O]nce we complete the BMX Mine, we do not expect to be investing in new major coal growth projects. So, in 2014 and beyond, we expect annual coal investments to approach maintenance-of-production levels of $5 to $6 per ton.

The BMX (Bailey Mine Expansion) in southwestern Pennsylvania is expected to be operational by the first quarter of next year following a $660+ million expansion project that will boost production at the Bailey complex to 25 million tons a year.

To reach its spending goal, Consol plans to sell $455 to $640 million in assets, including a $328 million payment from Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE: NBL). The payment is the last in a $1 billion deal between the two firms to create a joint partnership to develop natural gas leases in the Marcellus shale play in southwest Pennsylvania and northwest Virginia.

Consol expects to invest $600 million to develop its Marcellus shale assets in 2013, another $160 million to maintain current natural gas production, and another $122 million in a joint venture with Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) in the Utica shale play. Investment in natural gas development is expected to total $835 to $935 million.

Net investment in coal operations is forecast at $410 to $520 million, including a $205 million operating lease deal.

The news that a traditional coal company is investing twice as much in natural gas as in coal has pushed down the stocks of most other coal miners. Shares of Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU) are down 2.9%, Arch Coal shares are down 2.2%, and Alpha Natural Resources Inc.’s (NYSE: ANR) are down 3.1%, while James River Coal Co. (NASDAQ: JRCC) is down 2.9%, Walter Energy Inc. (NYSE: WLT) is down 2.2%. Cloud Peak Energy Inc. (NYSE: CLD) is up about 1.1% and Consol itself is down 0.8%.

Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: ANR) is up 4.4%, Walter Energy Inc. (NYSE: WLT) is up 3.6%, Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) is up 1.9%, James River Coal Co. (NASDAQ: JRCC) is up 0.3%. Cloud Peak Energy Co. (NYSE: CLD) is today’s only loser, down 1.4%.

In its announcement today, Peabody’s CEO said:

We are seeing increased U.S. gas-to-coal switching given higher natural gas prices, and global seaborne coal markets are showing signs of improving next year. While the first quarter is challenged due to a combination of factors, we expect quarter-over-quarter improvement throughout the remainder of the year.

There’s the reason for investors enthusiasm today. Peabody thinks coal is coming back as a fuel source for electricity generation. That’s good news for coal miners — if it’s true, but inventories are still high, idled capacity can be brought back online quickly, regulation is getting tighter, and export demand may continue weak.

Peabody also said it would slash 2013 capital spending by half from 2012 levels. The company expects U.S. sales volumes will be somewhat lower next year, but Australian volumes are expected to be higher. There are a lot of moving parts in the coal industry, and a glitch in any one could bring the industry back down again.

Paul Ausick

Today’s rumor involved a potential acquisition of Walter Energy Inc. (NYSE: WLT) by BHP Billiton plc (NYSE: BHP), the world’s largest natural resources company. Walter owns significant reserves of metallurgical coal, the kind used in steelmaking that sells for a substantial premium to thermal coal used in power generation.

This wouldn’t be the first time that BHP was identified as a potential buyer for Walter. The first reports of such $6 billion offer for Walter came more than a year ago, and lasted through May of this year. While it could still happen, a healthy skepticism seems in order.

Nonetheless, coal mining stocks are getting a boost today. Walter is up 6% at $30.25 in a 52-week range of $28.01 to $76.95. And Walter’s market cap at today’s stock price is less than $2 billion.

Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU) is up 1% at $25.29 in a 52-week range of $18.78 to $39.74.

Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) is up more than 2% at $6.70 in a 52-week range of $5.16 to $16.88.

Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: ANR) is up 2.7% at $7.37 in a 52-week range of $5.28 to $25.48. Alpha also has large reserves of met coal thanks to its acquisition of Massey Energy.

James River Coal Co. (NASDAQ: JRCC) is up 7.9% at $3.82 in a 52-week range of $1.68 to $8.67.

The Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSEMKT: KOL) is up 0.2% at $23.65 in a 52-week range of $21.49 to $37.39.

Paul Ausick

The U.S. dollar index rose slightly today, now up 0.01% at 81.065. The GSCI commodity index is up 0.6% at 637.39, with commodities prices mostly lower today. WTI crude oil closed down 1% today, at $85.45 a barrel, following a mostly inline report on inventories (more coverage here). Brent crude trades down about 0.4% at $108.03 a barrel. Natural gas is down 1.3% today at about $3.71 per thousand cubic feet, following a reported drawdown that was again inline with expectations (more coverage here). Gold settled down 0.9% today at $1,713.80 an ounce.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 29 points to 12,541.62 (-0.23%), the NASDAQ fell nearly 10 points (-0.35%) to 2,836.94, and the S&P 500 fell -0.16% or about 2 points to 1,353.30.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Cablevision Systems Corp. (NYSE: CVC) cut to ‘sell’ at Goldman Sachs; Walter Energy Co. (NYSE: WLT) cut to ‘underperform’ at BofA/ML; Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) reiterated as ‘buy’ with a target price of $19 at Argus; Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL) raised to ‘buy’ at CLSA; and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) reiterated as ‘outperform’ with a target price of $750, with near-term risk-reward prices of $520 and $630 at Credit Suisse.

Earnings reports of interest since U.S. markets closed last night have resulted in some price moves today, including these as of the last half hour of trading: DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) is down 18.3% at $1.70 after posting a new 52-week low of $1.69 earlier today; NetApp Inc. (NASDAQ: NTAP) is up 11.1% at $30.13; PetSmart Inc. (NASDAQ: PETM) is up 3.9% at $67.40; Spectrum Brands Holdings Inc. (NYSE: SPB) is up 0.3% at $43.42; GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) is up 4.6% at $24.56 (more coverage here); Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST) is down 1.4% at $54.35; Viacom Inc. (NASDAQ: VIAB) is up 2.8% at $49.33; Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) is up 1.8% at $62.48 (more coverage here); and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is down 3.7% at $68.71 (more coverage here).

After markets close today and before they open tomorrow morning we are scheduled to hear from Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT), Autodesk Inc. (NASDAQ: ADSK), Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL), Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD), Foot Locker Inc. (NYSE: FL), and J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE: SJM).

Some standouts from today include the following stocks:

Velti Plc (NASDAQ: VELT) is down 33.9% at $4.39 after posting a new 52-week low of $4.27 earlier today. The Ireland-based software maker posted a loss last night and said today that it will sell some of its businesses in countries with weak economies.

Diamond Foods Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND) is down 21.7% at $15.26 after posting a new low of $14.50 earlier today. The snack food maker dumped $56.5 million in profits when it restated previous earnings. More coverage here.

Bluegreen Corp. (NYSE: BXG) is up 55.9% at $9.67, after posting a new 52-week high of $9.67 earlier today. The resort time-share company agreed to be acquired by BFC Financial Corp. for shares last year, but the offer was today switched to $10 a share, all in cash. BFC already owns 54% of Bluegreen and has topped a competing offer from Diamond Resorts for $6.50 a share in cash.

Stay tuned for Friday. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart is giving a speech. We have also noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 9:00 a.m. – Treasury International Capital (TIC) data
• 9:15 a.m. – Industrial production

Paul Ausick