So, why are things so bad in the garbage and waste management sector? It is almost scary if you reviewed the earnings report from last week’s reports from Waste Management Inc. (NYSE: WM), Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) and Waste Connections Inc. (NYSE: WCN). Even Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. (NYSE: BIN) had a bad report. In case you forgot, Bill Gates has been a huge investor in this sector with a 15% or higher stake in Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) via his personal investment entity called Cascade Investment.

Last week, particularly Friday, was just brutal on the shares of these companies due to such poor earnings from the waste management sector leaders. A contrarian take against the grain would be that this sector just got a lot cheaper for those investors who have a very long-term outlook. We want to see which companies are now a bargain and which ones may still deserve some caution.

Waste Management Inc. (NYSE: WM) took it on the chin last week as booked revenue of $3.30 billion and, while that was above the consensus of about $3.2 billion, the non-GAAP earnings of $0.38 EPS was shy of the $0.41 EPS estimate as GAAP earnings shrank by 5% from a year earlier. The company also reported a drop in the gross margin, operating margin and net margin. The $15-plus billion garbage company was down by more than 3% when the other reports were taken into consideration, with shares trading just above $34 and very close to the Thomson Reuters consensus price target of $34.40. This was just a $36 stock on Wednesday and the 52-week range is $27.75 to $39.69.

Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter results as revenue increased 0.9% to $1.98 billion, but earnings per share fell by 7.8% to $0.38 EPS based on lower recycled commodity prices and higher fuel costs. The $10 billion waste company was said to have lost a large national account due to competitive pricing that will cost about $25 million in 2012 sales and it noted a loss of one or two municipal disposal contracts. The company is holding on to its pricing structure and it did manage to raise volume and said that they are seeing positive C&D activity and special waste volume. Republic was down over 11.5% at one point Friday morning at $27.50 and the 52-week range is $24.72 to $33.10.

Waste Connections Inc. (NYSE: WCN) turned in sales growth of more than 13% to $376 million, which was just above estimates, and it claimed increased pricing strength and that its C&D waste volume offset commodities and fuel prices. Still, its EBITDA margin was lower at 30.5% based on lower recycled commodity values and also on higher expenses due to its County Waste acquisition in 2011. The company’s franchise market model is allowing for pricing power and supposedly keeping customer churn lower. Waste Connection shares were down more than 1% on Friday again with shares above $32 and its 52-week range is $29.06 to $35.95. This was probably the only bright spot, but with a $3.5 billion market cap its stock trend was dictated by problems at the larger peers.

U.S. investors often forget about Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. (NYSE: BIN) because it is based in Canada, but it has a $2.5 billion market cap. Keep in mind that this is the old BFI Canada, and it offers waste services in Canada and in the United States. A weak report from this company last week took a lot of wind out of its sails as well: $0.19 EPS versus $0.24 EPS expected, but revenues rose 3.6% to $438.3 million versus $434.3 million expected. The company reaffirmed its 2012 outlook. Shares were down more than 6% at $21.40 on Friday against a 52-week range of $18.35 to $25.56. The consensus target from Thomson Reuters is closer to $25 over the next year.

Gabelli issued a report on Friday calling a Waste Connection private market value of $31 for 2012 and $34 in 2013. What is interesting is that Thomson Reuters has a consensus target objective of just over $38 for the next 12 months. Gabelli also maintained its Buy stance on Republic Services and Thomson Reuters had a consensus target of $34.60 before considering the double-digit percentage drop on Friday morning.

Raymond James downgraded Republic Services to Market Perform from Outperform based upon the report. We would not be surprised at all if there are more analyst downgrades due to how the whole sector was soft. These reports from last week may set a sour tone for the smaller US Ecology Inc. (NASDAQ: ECOL) as it is set to report its first quarter earnings on Tuesday, May 1, 2012. Its market cap is only $390 million.

Based upon the new share price drops, the dividends of each are looking better: a 3.9% yield for Waste Management Inc. (NYSE: WM), a 2.8% yield for Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) but only 1.1% for Waste Connections Inc. (NYSE: WCN). Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. (NYSE: BIN) now has a 2.5% dividend yield.

Things are bad enough in the sector that Enerkem Inc., a Canadian biofuel company backed by Waste Management Inc. (NYSE: WM) and Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO), even withdrew its registration statement with the SEC that would have allowed it to raise almost $140 million in an initial public offering. Enerkem develops refineries that convert trash into gases that get reprocessed to be turned into ethanol and other chemicals. The outfit cited market conditions in the filing. This is sector-specific market conditions, because, in case you had not noticed, the market has managed to hold up well in earnings season. These “market conditions” are also against the backdrop of what has been a super-premium IPO market.

It may take a bit for the dust to settle here because this was widespread disruption. That being said, we would start to look at a contrarian outlook now that the sector is on sale for those investors who invest with a multiyear horizon. Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) took it on the chin the worst of the lot, and it is not easy to bet against Bill Gates for too long in his post-software investments.

JON C. OGG

Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) shares almost hit a 52-week high on Wednesday.  Estimates are $0.75 EPS and $1.32 billion in sales.

Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA) $2.87 EPS on $4.3 billion in revenue; watch for news on northern Africa operations.

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) $0.12 EPS on $1.97 billion in sales; next quarter estimates are $0.16 EPS on $2.08 billion in sales.  This report will have every chip cap-ex stock elsewhere looking closely.

Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) is the “Google of China’ by many investors… estimates are $0.91 EPS and $700.75 million in sales.  Next quarter estimates are $0.83 EPS and $665.9 million in sales.   Around $138 it is back in the middle of its 52-week trading range.

Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) $1.27 EPS and shares are in the lower half of the 52-week range.

DIRECTV, Inc. (NASDAQ: DTV) $0.92 EPS on $7.4 billion in sales; Team Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway added shares to the position.

DaVita Inc. (NYSE: DVA) $1.48 EPS on $1.85 billion in sales; Team Buffett added this as a new position for the Berkshire Hathaway holdings.

Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE: DUK) $0.21 EPS on $3.37 billion in revenue

EarthLink Inc. (NASDAQ: ELNK) is still around and acting as a business broadband provider rather than just a dial-up ISP of the days past.  Estimates are $0.04 EPS and $349.23 million in sales.

General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) $0.41 EPS and $38.2 billion in sales; GM is still a busted IPO but is trading down under 7-times 2012 expected earnings.  Value, or value trap?

Leap Wireless International Inc. (NASDAQ: LEAP) -$1.11 EPS on $808 million in sales.  Watch shares of MetroPCS Communications, Inc. (NYSE: PCS).

Molson Coors Brewing Co. (NYSE: TAP) $0.70 EPS

Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) $1.10 EPS on $3.18 billion in sales

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) was the ‘solar buyout that only got partly acquired’ and shares have been bashed.  At $7.36, the 52-week range is $4.94 to $23.36.  Earnings estimates are -$0.05 EPS on $669 million in sales.

Waste Management, Inc. (NYSE: WM) $0.60 EPS on $3.35 billion in revenue.  The 3.8% yield may make more interest than in rival Republic Services.

Web.com Group Inc. (NASDAQ: WWWW) is expected to post $0.23 EPS and $93.95 million in sales.  If all goes well, this one trades at less than 10-times expected 2012 earnings.  It has been hard to not notice a high degree of advertising out of Web.com of late.

Thursday’s Economic Data:

8:30 AM EST Weekly Jobless Claims (365K est.)

8:30 AM EST January Housing Starts (677K est.)

8:30 AM EST January PPI (+0.4% es.)

9:00 AM EST Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on community banking

10:00 AM EST Treasury’s Geithner speaks to Senate Budget Committee

10:00 AM EST February Philly Fed

10:30 AM EST Weekly Natural Gas inventories

4:30 PM EST Feb. 15 Foreign Central Bank Treasury Holdings

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JON C. OGG

Charles River Laboratories International Inc. (NYSE: CRL); Chimera Investment Corporation (NYSE: CIM); Nordic American Tankers Ltd. (NYSE: NAT); Rackspace Hosting Inc. (NYSE: RAX); Avon Products, Inc. (NYSE: AVP); Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT); MetLife Inc. (NYSE: MET); Omnicom Group Inc. (NYSE: OMC); Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA); Agilent Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: A); NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA); PG&E Corp. (NYSE: PCG); Devon Energy Corporation (NYSE: DVN); Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE); NetApp, Inc. (NASDAQ: NTAP); Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA); Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA); DIRECTV, Inc. (NASDAQ: DTV); Waste Management, Inc. (NYSE: WM); Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN); Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT); Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE: DUK); H.J. Heinz Company (NYSE: HNZ); and Campbell Soup Company (NYSE: CPB).

Earnings estimates are from Thomson Reuters and the dates may change by the companies.  More detailed previews will be available each day this coming week with much more color and trading information.

MONDAY, FEB 13

Charles River Laboratories International Inc. (NYSE: CRL) $0.56 EPS

Chimera Investment Corporation (NYSE: CIM) $0.11 EPS

Nordic American Tankers Ltd. (NYSE: NAT)  -$0.29 EPS… with losses expected this year, we will be watching for any dividend news after the company sold 5.5 million shares last month.

Rackspace Hosting Inc. (NYSE: RAX) $0.15 on $281 million in sales; this one still trades at close to 60-times 2012 expected earnings of $0.81 EPS.   

TUESDAY, FEB 14

Avon Products, Inc. (NYSE: AVP) $0.51 EPS on $3.11 billion; a serial disappointment in shares, but turnaround investors have hopes that the bar is set extremely low.  Earnings will prove if there is a value story here or just more of a value trap.

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT) $0.20 EPS on $5.88 billion in sales; this is still a long-term turnaround story valued at less than 7-times expected earnings.

MetLife Inc. (NYSE: MET) $1.24 EPS on $16.81 billion in revenues; shares are mid-way between the 52-week high and 52-week low.

Omnicom Group Inc. (NYSE: OMC) $0.95 EPS on $3.8 billion in sales.

Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) estimates are not yet available for its first quarterly earnings report.  Shares are now back over $13.00 due to the Facebook-effect on anything tied to social media.

Don’t forget about Valentine’s Day….

Before just considering book value, we always look for more.  We looked for companies which are still expected to have respectable earnings growth.   Analysts expect next year earnings expansion ranging from Raytheon’s 12.8% to Kennametal’s 23.5% growth.  We have also considered a consensus price target from analysts for those companies which have implied upside for investors, and this group ranges from 16% to 33% upside.  We also only consider liquid issues, and the floor for this group was average daily trading volume exceeding 750,000 shares. Except where otherwise noted, the source for all performance and financial data is Finviz.com.

Eaton Corporation (NYSE: ETN) has a price to book value of 2.1  to 1.  Eaton’s market cap is almost $17 billion, ranking it second among these companies.  Its forward PE is about 10.5, placing it in the top-tier of these companies.  With a consensus target price of $60.96 from Thomson Reuters, Eaton has an implied upside exceeding 24%.  In Thursday trading Eaton’s shares closed at $48.85 and the 52-week price range is $30.65 to $56.12.  The power management company is now larger than what we would expect as an acquisition target as its market cap is north of $16 billion, so if you like Eaton it better be for its own merits. If analysts are right, that $60.96 would be an all-time high.  Our caveat in Eaton is that a substantial portion of its “value” in equity is tied to intangible assets and goodwill.

Kennametal Inc. (NYSE: KMT) posts a 2.2 to 1 price to book value.  This is sometimes a bit high by our count, but the specialty materials and metalworking outfit is one that has the right size and the right angle for many value investors.   Its market cap is $3.3 billion, making it the smallest company discussed here.  Its forward PE is less than 12.  With a consensus target price of $48.45, Kennametal has an implied upside of 19%.  In Thursday trading Kennametal shares closed at $40.63 and the 52-week trading range is $23.75 to $43.84.

Republic Services, Inc. (NYSE: RSG) boasts a 1.5 to 1 price to book value, best among these companies.  Imagine, value in garbage.  Its market cap is almost $12 billion.  Its forward PE is slightly less than 14.5 With a consensus target price of $36.17, Republic has an implied upside of 16%.  In yesterday’s trading Republic’s shares closed at $31.1, down 0.06%.  The 52-week price range is $27.33 to $33.10.  What is interesting about Republic is that its screened criteria made this one a stock which we said was one of our Ten Stocks To Own For The Next Decade.  Its rival Waste Management, Inc. (NYSE: WM) is often in the same boat and much of the value analysis is relative between the two companies.  This was also formerly a Warren Buffett stock, but it was still a Bill Gates holding when we last looked.

Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN)  sports a 1.7 to 1 price to book value. Its market cap exceeds $17 billion, largest among these companies.  Its forward PE is lower than 9, ranking it first among this list of companies.  With a consensus target price of $56.41, Raytheon has an implied upside of 16%. In Thursday trading Raytheon shares closed at $48.39, down 1.49%.  The 52-week price range is $41.60 to $52.67.  This defense stock was one of our higher-yield dividend defense stocks reviewed as the fighting in Libya escalated.  The maker of the Patriot Missile system and many other defense and war technologies also carries a large amount of goodwill and the reason it has low earnings multiples is because the Department of Defense is under significant budget pressure which is not going to go away.

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (NYSE: SWK) posts a 1.7 to 1 price to book value, placing it in the top-tier of these companies.  We do want to make the reminder that this tool-maker for builders and carpenters (and for you around your house) is now the “newly amalgamated” Stanley and Black & Decker after the merger.  The company is also still considered by many investors to be searching for acquisitions as well.  Its market cap is almost $12 billion and it carries a forward P/E ratio of less than 12.  With a consensus target price of $86.13, Stanley Black & Decker has an implied upside of 21%. In trading yesterday the company’s shares closed at $71.06 and the 52-week trading range is $47.64 to $77.75.

Timken Co. (NYSE: TKR)  posts a 2.3 to 1 price to book value. Its market cap is less than $5 billion, ranking it one of the smaller companies listed here.  The company is part of America’s core manufacturing as it makes bearings, seals, and many other internal components for machines and machinery.  Its forward PE is slightly greater than 10, placing it in the top-tier of these companies.  With a consensus target price of $64.86, the machine tool manufacturer has an implied upside of 33%.  In Thursday trading Timken’s shares closed at $48.65, and the 52-week price range is $24.45 to $57.60.  If the target price is realized by analysts, that will mark an all-time high.

While many companies have high balances of goodwill and intangible assets, we are currently looking for value among peers.  We are not considering liquidation values and therefore are not using the analogy that “You can’t pay your rent with goodwill.”

Warren Buffett was quoted back in the 1990s saying, “Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily-understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, ten and twenty years from now.”  We don’t go along with the Buffett model of forever any longer, but you get the idea.

This is also not a value review digging through the garbage heap.  As one investment manager said at The Value Investing Congress when asked about how she starts her screens for finding value stocks, “Actually, I usually start my screens by seeing which stocks have been hitting 52-week lows for a while.”  There would not be a value category of the growth trajectory was never interrupted and if problems had not arisen.

Elsewhere in recent value picks looking for book value discounts:

• Looking for Deep Value in Basic Materials
• Banks, Tech, and Others close-to or under book value

JON C. OGG & JIM BERDOU

The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) Maintained Buy on Focus List with $81 target at Argus.
Discovery Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: DISCA) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
General Growth Properties Inc. (NYSE: GGP) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Hologic Inc. (NASDAQ: HOLX) replaced Allergan Inc. (NYSE: AGN) on the Convition Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks Investment Research.
Strayer Education (NASDAQ: STRA) was named the Bear of the Day at Zacks Investment Research.
Turkcell (NYSE: TKC) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
United Rentals, Inc. (NYSE: URI) Started as Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Waste Management Inc. (NYSE: WM) Maintained BUY with $44 target at Argus.
WellPoint Inc. (NYSE: WLP) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.

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JON C. OGG

The Houston-based garbage and waste management giant will pay the dividend in March with a formal date to be announced soon.  This marks the 7th consecutive year of a dividend hike.

The move follows a similar dividend hike from Republic Services, Inc. (NYSE: RSG) a quarter ago after it hiked its quarterly payout to $0.20 from $0.19.  The rival dividend from Republic probably has a lot more room to rise as that rate is 2.66% per year.  Rival Republic was also listed recently as one of our ten stocks to hold for the next decade, and that pick was very very close to being Waste Management.

So far, there has been no pre-market boost to Waste Management shares.

JON C. OGG

Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) Started as Hold at Jefferies.
Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) Started as Neutral at Robert W. Baird.
Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein.
Clearwire Corporation (NASDAQ: CLWR) Raised to Neutral at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Eaton Corp. (NYSE: ETN) Raised to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) Started At Hold By Jefferies
Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (NASDAQ: MPEL) Raised to Buy at Daiwa.
MetLife, Inc. (NYSE: MET) Cut to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) Raised to Buy at Needham.
Quiksilver Inc. (NYSE: ZQK) Cut to Underperform at FBR.
Republic Services, Inc. (NYSE: RSG) Started as Outperform at William Blair.
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: HOT) Started as Neutral at Janney.
UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (NYSE: UNH) Started as Hold at Jefferies.
Waste Management, Inc. (NYSE: WM) Started as Outperform at William Blair.
Williams-Sonoma Inc. (NYSE: WSM) Started as Outperform at Robert W. Baird.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

Fedex (NYSE: FDX) is off 3% to $83.14 on new that earnings were weaker than expected. The freight firm will cut 1,700 jobs.

The Williams Companies (NYSE: WMB) stock is off 2% after the firm disappointed Wall St. and said its adjusted 2010 earnings would be only $1 to $1.25 a share.

Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL) is up a fraction to $58 after it announced that its fiscal year guidance was better than expected.

Cellular Tissue Holdings (NYSE: CLU) is up 57% to $12.45 on news that it will be bought by Clearwater Paper (NYSE: CLW)

Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) is off 1.1% on more news that it is losing market share to Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google’s (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android.

Micron Technology (NYSE: MU) is up 1% after a 3% drop in yesterday’s trading.

Douglas A. McIntyre

We have included a full chart below with tickers, a 52-week range, P/E ratios, earnings and revenue expectations from Thomson Reuters, and even the dividend yields of each.

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

All estimates are from Thomson Reuters. Earnings dates are subject to change and some may have already changed. Earnings estimates may also be slightly altered between now and the formal earnings date as analysts change their estimates, particularly on those later in the week.

JON C. OGG

Today came the news that Gates’ confidant Michael Larson has joined Republic’s Board of Directors effective October 28, 2009, and Larson will also become a member of Republic’s Compensation Committee and its Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee.  Larson is the Business Manager of Cascade Investment and is the Chief Investment Officer for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust.  In short, Bill Gates (or his investment funds) is not just going to be a mere large investor in the garbage sector.  That is an entrenchment into a company, and there seems to be a reason for it.

What is surprising is that Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) have not been involved in this investment after reviewing the Buffett holdings as of last quarter.   Republic shares are up about 0.8% today at $26.55 and the 52-week trading range is $15.05 to $28.35. The market cap is now around $10 billion, and the company does pay a dividend of $0.76 (worth some 2.9% yield today).  This also has nothing to do with Gates still having the largest stake in Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT).

One metric we always look for is the earnings and revenue projections from Wall Street.  Thomson Reuters lists $1.46 EPS as the 2009 earnings target and $1.67 EPS for the 2010 earnings target.  Those same annual targets for revenues are listed as $8.26 billion for 2009 and $8.51 billion for 2010.  As always, we are somewhat apprehensive about relying too deeply on analyst consensus data for at least a year after a merger because there can always be surprises on either side of the coin.

Rival Waste Management Inc. (NYSE: WM) posted a 11% drop in profits just yesterday.  Thomson Reuters is calling for growth in 2010 revenues for Waste Management, but that would still be lower than the combined annual revenues for at least each of the last three years.

Gates has been out in front of many major changes with a bit of a futurist investor mentality besides having built a software empire.  He is deeply entrenched with Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A).  He has invested in rail for its huge barriers to entry, he cleaned up in ethanol long before that became a hot sector and subsequent flop, and he invests in other businesses via Cascade.

The garbage sector has very large barriers to entry.  In many ways, the waste management sector is almost the same as a utility.  Many waste disposal companies have partial locks on long-term contracts with municipalities and businesses.  They are highly regulated and new operating permits won’t be handed out haphazardly in most markets.  Garbage and waste producers (like you and me) don’t care who picks up their trash nor where it goes.  The problem creating another barrier to entry is that there are landfill restrictions and most cities and counties do not want to open up new landfills because of the environmental issues and the political heat that comes up each time a new landfill is allowed.  In one sort, it is just like the issue of building a new refinery or a nuclear power plant… nobody wants it in their backyard.

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JON C. OGG