The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 3 points to 12,415.70 (-0.02%), the NASDAQ rose more than 21 points (0.81%) to 2,669.86, and the S&P 500 rose 0.29% or nearly 4 points to 1,281.05.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) maintained ‘buy’ with a $46 target price at Argus; Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) maintained ‘underperform’ and estimates cut at Needham; Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) raised to ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse; Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) cut to ‘hold’ at Benchmark; and VMWare Inc. (NYSE: VMW) started as ‘buy’ at Sterne Agee.

Earnings reports of note since markets closed yesterday include: Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) is down about -3.5% at $19.72; Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) is up more than 5.5% at $76.70; Worthington Industries Inc. (NYSE: WOR) is down -0.6% at $17.55; and Helen of Troy Ltd. (NASDAQ: HELE) is up more than 4% at $32.73.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN) is up nearly 40% at $10.61. The biotech company reported a sales jump of 25% for its prostate cancer drug. The company is one of our top biotech picks for 2012.

Ancestry.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: ACOM) is up more than 21% at $27.69. The internet genealogy provider reported a 22% rise in subscribers and forecast sales growth for 2012 of more than 14%.

Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) is up nearly 17% at $30.74 after posting a new 52-week high earlier of $30.94. The sports apparel company reported a 10% same-store sales gain and raised guidance this morning. See our coverage here.

Orchard Supply Hardware Stores (NYSE: OSH) is down nearly -25% at $16.70. The home improvement store held its IPO on Monday and today provided a weak outlook for 2012.

Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) is down more than -17% at $11.25. The bookstore chain said today that it is considering spinning off its Nook e-reader unit as a strategic option. Our coverage is available here.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) is down more than -10% at $13.61. The clothing retailer slashed its fourth-quarter profit guidance by nearly a quarter.

Stay tuned for Friday. Federal Reserve Governors Elizabeth Duke and Sarah Bloom Raskin are speaking, as are Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and New York Fed President William Dudley. Here are the noteworthy events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – Employment reports, including non-farm payrolls
• 3:00 p.m. – US Treasury STRIPS

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Paul Ausick

Goldman Sachs’ research team noted that the most recent price drop in many of the metals and mining shares has created very attractive entry points for many of the best stocks in the sector.  The firm is remaining bullish on copper fundamentals, which is hard to say is a value call.  To be bullish on copper almost always translates back to the global growth trade.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) was reiterated as a “Buy.”  Goldman is less aggressive on Aluminum, but has some bright spots.  Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) was reiterated as “Buy” as a move away from the linkage to spot aluminum prices due to strong aerospace business opportunities coming down the pipe in the years ahead.  Freeport-McMoRan shares are up 3.75% at $48.35, bot bad for a $45 billion market cap.  Alcoa is up almost 4% at $12.84 this morning.

Century Aluminum Co. (NASDAQ: CENX) was raised to “Neutral” from “Sell,” but it needs to be noted that the target went to $11.50 from $14.50 before; the 52-week range is $8.72 to $20.76.  Shares are still up 5% at $12.38 on the news.

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (NYSE: RS) was raised to “Buy” from “Neutral,” but the price target was taken to $52 from $60 against a 52-week range of $36.62 to $60.60. Reliance shares are up a sharp 5% at $43.26 this morning.

Worthington Industries, Inc. (NYSE: WOR) in steel and metals processing was not given the same love.  Goldman Sachs cut the rating there to “Sell” from an already cautious “Neutral” rating.  Worthington shares are down 2.5% at $16.28 on the call and the 52-week range is $14.07 to $23.75.

The key ETF is on the move too.  The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining (NYSE: XME) is up 1.8% at $59.66 and its 52-week range is $47.31 to $77.44.  In copper mining ETF trends, the Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSE: COPX) is up over 3% at $17.15 against a 52-week range of $12.35 to $20.98.

JON C. OGG

Forward PE multiples range from 6.7 to almost 12 and the return on equity (ROE) is as low as 3.6% to as high as 18.5%.  Five of these companies boast ROE’s greater than 8.5%.  Analysts estimate next year’s earnings will range from a 15% year-over-year increase to an increase of about 60%.  Most of these companies are expected to post an increase in next year’s earnings above 30%. Consensus target prices from analysts indicate that each of these have above-market upside from Thomson Reuters, with most looking to be above 20%.  Most of these companies also show a price to book ratio of 2.4 to 1 or lower.  Except where otherwise noted our source for all financial and performance data is Finviz.

Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA) is the largest of these companies with a market cap of $17.3 billion.  This is also one of our freshly featured “Top Stocks That Will Set Market Trends For This Summer” as it leads off in earnings season this coming week.  Its price to book ratio is 1.17 to 1, best of the lot.  With a consensus target price of $19.67 the shares have an implied greater than 20%.  Alcoa shares recently traded at $16.49 and its 52-week trading range is $9.86 to $18.44.  We do not expect this to occur, but we do have to admit that this was considered a loose takeover candidate in the recent past.  It also hit $40.00 before the recession.  Alcoa offers a very unexciting dividend of about 0.7%.

Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) may seem an odd fit in our base metals screen, but that is because of its metallurgical coal operations that feed the steel industry.  Technically it does actually lead the rest of our screened companies in three of our financial measures: forward P/E, analysts’ implied price upside, and analysts’ estimated earnings growth.  The reason or explanation may simply be because many estimates have not properly adjusted since its International Coal acquisition.  Our review was on a standalone basis and we always want to point out that estimates and projections can often lag by a quarter when M&A is in the mix.  The company’s forward price to earnings multiple is less than 7 as analysts see next year’s earnings growth of about 60%.  Again, consider the merger.  With a consensus target price of $39.28, the shares have an implied upside of more than 40%.  Arch Coal shares recently traded at $27.34 and its 52-week price range is $19.03 to $36.86.  After the acquisition was completed, S&P affirned a “BB-” corporate credit rating.

Century Aluminum Co. (NASDAQ: CENX) is second best among these companies with a low price to book ratio of 1.26 to 1.  It also trades at less than 9-times 2012 projected earnings from Thomson Reuters consensus data.  Unfortunately, Century is stingy when it comes to dividends.  Its $1.48 billion market cap makes Century the smallest of these companies.  Its consensus target price of $19.75 implies an upside greater than 24%.  The company’s shares recently traded at $15.87 and the 52-week trading range is $8.57 to $20.76.

Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) has a market cap of $13 billion making it the second largest company in this lot.  The manufacturing and sales company of steel and steel products actually has an unimpressive 3.6% return on equity (ROE) per the Finviz screen, which, if entirely accurate, screened out as the lowest among these companies.  It also pays a 3.6% dividend yield.  With a consensus target price of $50.38, the shares still have an implied upside of 23%.  Nucor shares recently traded at $40.82.  The 52-week price range is $34.48 to $48.40.  While it trades at 15.6-times 2011 earnings estimates, the multiple drops down to under 11-times the 2012 earnings estimates.

Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) is in an interesting place since it recently gave earnings and offered guidance which was technically a bit light.  Still, shares have recovered about 10% since its report and it seems that the valuations may be a part of the “why” that recovery has been seen.  The steel products operator has a price to book ratio of 1.62 to 1, third best among these companies.  With a consensus target price of $21.83, the shares have an implied upside of 34%.  That is actually the second highest among these companies. Shares of Steel Dynamics recently traded at $16.25.  The 52-week price range is $12.92 to $20.45. Steel Dynamics also pays a 2.5% dividend yield.

Worthington Industries, Inc. (NYSE: WOR) is one of the smaller companies with a market cap of just under $1.7 billion.  It also leads these companies with a 16.4% return on equity (ROE).  It also trades at about 13-times next year’s projected earnings.  With a consensus target price of $26 the shares of this metals processor have an implied upside of 12% to the consensus price target.  Worthington shares recently traded at $23.22.  The 52-week price range is $12.00 to $23.75.  Worthington’s dividend yield measures today at about 2.1%.

Having the term “value” does not imply immediate gains nor does it imply that there are no risks.  The market has also just recently enjoyed a great bounce.  When it comes to M&A and it when it comes to long-term investing it is the value segment that often outperforms the market and which can hold up better if and when the markets head south again. Earnings season is about to be underway and many of these figures may change in the coming weeks.

JON C. OGG

• Barrick (ABX) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
• Cogent (COGT) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
• General Maritime (GMR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
• Goldcorp (GG) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
• Newmont (NEM) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
• Nordic American Tanker (NAT) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
• Prudential (PRU) Cut to Marekt Perform at FBR.
• UBS (UBS) Cut to Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
• US Steel (X) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Worthington (WOR) Cut to Underperform at CIBC.

Jon C. Ogg
December 22, 2008

• AIG (NYSE: AIG) Cut to Market Perform from Outperform at Wachovia.
• ASMI International (NASDAQ: ASMI) Started as Underperform at Jefferies.
• AT&T (NYSE: T) maintained Buy but Removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
• Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) Cut to Market Perform from Outperform at Wachovia.
• Motorola (NYSE: MOT) Started as Sell at Societe Generale.
• Neurogen (NASDAQ: NRGN) Cut to Neutral from Buy at Pacific Growth.
• Wachovia (NYSE: WB) Cut to Underperform from Perform at Oppenheimer.
• Waste Management (NYSE: WMI) maintained Buy but removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
• Worthington Industries (NYSE: WOR) Added to Goldman Sachs Conviction Sell List.

Jon C. Ogg
July 15, 2008

There was one lowered target on Olympic Steel, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZEUS).  Goldman Sachs is raising ZEUS earnings estimates for this year and next, but it is downgrading the stock from Buy to Neutral because its shares are up more than 50% since being added as Buy in November.  It is raising the rating on U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) from neutral to Buy and it has raised targets as well, and it raised 2008 EPS from $11.10 to $14.80 and 2008 from $12.75 to $16.75.

Other estimates are raised in the sector:  Allegheny Tech (NYSE: ATI) was maintained as Buy and saw a slight boost to earnings targets.  Gerdau AmeriSteel (NYSE: GNA), Gibralter Ind. (NASDAQ: ROCK), Reliance Steel (NYSE: RS), Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD), AK Steel (NYSE: AKS), and Commercial Metals (NYSE: CMC) are all neutral rated but saw estimates raised considerably considering the neutral ratings.

The firm is also positive on Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE), which it maintains a Buy rating on and raised estimates sharply on for this year and next.

Goldman Sachs has sell ratings on Worthington (NYSE: WOR) and Schnitzer Steel (NASDAQ: SCHN), although the firm even raised earnings estimates on those two names.

Jon C. Ogg
March 20, 2008