We have compiled data and analysis here using Thomson Reuters consensus estimates, recent metrics offered by the companies, relative performance, and more.  As with what we have seen at most retail and apparel earnings this week and last, many of these are richly valued and probably cannot just hope to please the bulls by meeting estimates on cost cutting and inventory management and then giving cautious guidance.

Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS) estimates are $0.09 EPS and $961.5 million, both higher than last week’s estimates; estimates for the holiday quarter are $0.57 EPS and $1.27 billion in revenues, both also higher than last week.  With shares at $24.60, its 52-week trading range is $9.21 to $26.00.  A look at forward annual earnings estimates of $1.13 EPS for Jan-2010 and $1.29 for Jan-2011 will bring up some of the same valuation concerns we have seen elsewhere in retail.

Foot Locker Inc. (NYSE: FL) estimates are $0.13 EPS on $1.19 billion in revenues.  For the holiday quarter ahead estimates are $0.28 EPS and $1.29 billion in revenues.  The stock is probably not overly expensive at $11 at almost 18-times the $0.60 EPS target for FY Jan-2010 and 14.5-times the $0.73 EPS target for FY Jan-2011.  They are not exactly cheap either.  The 52-week trading range is $3.65 to $12.95.

Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) is in a totally new light as the new CEO has really gotten this longstanding turnaround candidate turned around and heading in the right direction.  Things are good enough and not-bad enough that we aren’t calling Old Navy a dead brand thanks to the new efforts.  Estimates are $0.44 EPS and $3.57 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $0.43 EPS and $4.15 billion in revenues.  The CEO deserves praise, but the question here is one of how to value Gap shares in looking ahead now that it is mature, has managed to get much of a turnaround under its belt considering the economy and peers, and since it is no longer the great growth story it once was.  Estimates are $1.50 EPS for FY Jan-2010 and $1.65 EPS for FY Jan-2011.  With a $22.20 price, Gap trades at 14.8-times this year’s earnings and trades at 13.5-times next year’s expected earnings.  That is not expensive in the current climate, particularly when you consider that it has provided an upside surprise for the last four quarters.  We don’t expect it to come any time soon, but we have always had Gap as a break-up candidate where it could break the three major brands apart.  The company also noted how October same-store sales were up 4% and the total sales rose 5% after seeing gains over at Banana Republic and Old Navy.  The Gap brand continues to drag the ship now.

Ross Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST) $0.84 EPS and $1.73 billion in revenues.  For the holiday quarter those estimates are $0.99 EPS and $1.92 billion in revenues.  With shares at $45.65 and with a 52-week trading range of $21.70 to $50.50, this doesn’t sound that expensive or like it has to blow numbers away to keep the bulls happy.  The off-price and home accessories retailer trades at 13.5-times expected Jan-2010 earnings estimates of $3.37 EPS and 12.5-times the expected Jan-2011 earnings estimates of $3.67 EPS.

The Buckle (NYSE: BKE) estimates are $0.70 EPS and $231.07 million in revenues; and estimates are $0.81 EPS and $269.94 million in revenues.  At $28.96, the retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young men and women has a 52-week range of $13.57 to $39.09 and it trades at 11-times both the Jan-2010 estimates of $2.62 and Jan-2011 estimates of $2.63.  That sounds cheap, but the lack of growth is probably part of the reason when you consider about 6% top-line revenue growth from fiscal years Jan-2010 to Jan-2011.

Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD) estimates are -$1.09 EPS on $9.92 billion in revenues.  For the ever-important holiday quarter the estimates are $2.64 EPS and $12.61 billion in revenues.  This has a huge premium close to 70-times this year’s expected earnings and about 50-times FY Jan-2011 estimates.  The premium is due to the old belief of the value of the dirt underneath the shops and because of brands and trademarks which can be sold or licensed.  At $76.00, the 52-week trading range is $26.80 to $79.35.  Calling the history here spotty is an understatement, yet shares continue to rally after selling off on bad news.

The Children’s Place Retail Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCE) still has a discrepancy from source to source on its earnings estimates so that is about all we will add: $1.38 EPS on $461.18 million in revenues; next quarter estimates are $1.05 EPS on $463.78 million in revenues. The largest unquantifiable risk here is what happens in flu season and how protective Mommy is over Junior. With shares around $34.65, and the 52-week trading range is $16.45 to $37.68.

Wet Seal Inc. (NASDAQ: WTSLA) is a young women’s apparel retailer.  Normally, we might not cover this one, but it is a retailer that has been very range-bound because of a turnaround and because of its mixed performance metrics.  Estimates are $0.03 EPS and $139.79 million in revenues for the past quarter, yet the coming holiday quarter-end estimates are $0.08 EPS and $155.19 million in revenues, yet the company gave guidance of $0.04.  We will hold off on forward valuation multiples because each penny in an EPS scenario for a $3.36 stock will skew the ratios.  October same-store sales were down 1.3%.

Williams-Sonoma Inc. (NYSE: WSM) is not just in the apparel market, but steadfast in the retail market for middle and upper-middle class spending for the kitchen and house. Its estimates are $0.05 EPS and $686.1 million in revenues. For the important Christmas quarter the estimates are much higher at $0.38 EPS and $949.9 million in revenues.  At $20.66 and with a $4.35 to $22.25 52-week trading range, this company absolutely has to knock the cover off the ball here.  Otherwise, this trades at 62-times Jan-2010 fiscal estimates and 38-times Jan-2011 fiscal earnings estimates.  Meeting estimates and maintaining guidance won’t likely be enough here.

Zumiez, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) is the last of the retailers out on Thursday Estimates for the action sports equipment and apparel retailer are $0.15 EPS and $112.01 million in revenues for the last quarter, which is higher than estimates last week.  For the important holiday quarter-end ahead the estimates are $0.25 EPS and $131.17 million in revenues, also higher than last week. Unfortunately, its same store sales in October were off by -8.9% and that may erase its habit of beating estimates.

JON C. OGG
NOVEMBER 17, 2009

We have provided estimates from Thomson Reuters, recent sale store sales data, share performance, and added color on what else to consider where applicable.

Saks Incorporated (NASDAQ: SKS) reports on Tuesday.  This is still deemed the troubled and challenged of the higher-end retailers, and it is after the sell-off seen so far in Nordstrom.  Earnings are expected to be -$0.12 EPS and $621.95 million in revenues.  The problem is that analysts still see a loss for the ever-important Q4 period of -$0.04 EPS and $792.7 million in revenues.  Investors are not exactly keen on retail plays that lose money in the holiday quarter.  That being said, it may take a “we should be profitable in Q4″ statement to garner much excitement.  Another issue is that Saks is expected to lose money not just for fiscal Jan-2010 but also for Jan-2011.  The good news is that Carlos Slim invested in it and it recently showed October same-store sales were up 0.7%.  At $6.00+ today, its 52-week range is $1.50 to $7.45.

BJ’s Wholesale Club Inc. (NYSE: BJ) is on deck next Wednesday, and we have already seen Wal-Mart and Costco data.  Estimates for the big box-club retailer are $0.45 EPS and $2.48 billion.  For the Q4 period the estimates are $0.97 EPS on $2.76 billion in revenues.  A significant problem for many investors is that BJ’s stock has been range-bound for some time despite some gains it has made.  The company’s same-store sales were -1.1%, but that included gasoline. At $36.50, the 52-week trading range is $27.26 to $40.77.

Gymboree Corp. (NASDAQ: GYMB) is also on deck for earnings on Wednesday.  The special situation and turnaround kid’s retail destination is 20% off of a recent 52-week high, but is still up about 200% from its 52-week low.  Earnings estimates are $1.10 EPS and $270.8 million in revenues.  For the holiday quarter those estimates are $1.12 EPS and $302.2 million in revenues.  While this is not quantifiable without seeing it, the notion that this is for kids does put its swine flu risks higher than most companies elsewhere in the retail stocks reporting next week.  Same-store sales were also down 4% for October.

Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS) is on deck next Thursday, Nov. 19.  Estimates are $0.08 EPS and $957.6 million; estimates for the holiday quarter are $0.56 EPS and $1.26 billion in revenues.  With shares at $24.00, its 52-week trading range is $9.21 to $26.00.  A look at forward annual earnings estimates of $1.11 EPS for Jan-2010 and $1.26 for Jan-2011 will bring up some of the same valuation concerns we have seen elsewhere in retail.

Foot Locker Inc. (NYSE: FL) is reporting next Thursday and estimates are $0.13 EPS on $1.19 billion in revenues.  For the holiday quarter ahead estimates are $0.28 EPS and $1.29 billion in revenues.  The stock is probably not overly expensive at $10.80 at 17.7-times the $0.61 EPS target for FY Jan-2010 and 14.5-times the $0.74 EPS target for FY Jan-2011.  They are not exactly cheap either.  The 52-week trading range is $3.65 to $12.95.

Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) is also on deck next Thursday.  The new CEO has really gotten this longstanding turnaround candidate turned around and heading in the right direction.  We are not even calling Old Navy by the name of ‘Old Lamie’ any longer.  Estimates are $0.44 EPS and $3.57 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $0.43 EPS and $4.15 billion in revenues die to higher inventory costs.  The CEO deserves praise, but the question here is one of how to value Gap shares.  It is mature and no longer the great growth story.  Estimates are $1.50 EPS for FY Jan-2010 and $1.65 EPS for FY Jan-2011.  With a $22.20 price, Gap trades at 14.8-times this year’s earnings and trades at 13.5-times next year’s expected earnings.  That is not expensive in the current climate, particularly when you consider that it has provided an upside surprise for each of the last four quarters.  We don’t expect it to come any time soon, but we have always had Gap as a break-up candidate where it could break the three major brands apart.  October same-store sales rose by 4% and the total sales rose 5% led by gains at Banana Republic and Old Navy, and dragged by Gap.

Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD) is due next Thursday from Eddie Lampert and friends.  The shares are up massively, yet Eddie’s minions at the retail giant keep showing dull earnings.  Estimates are for another loss at -$1.09 EPS on $9.89 billion in revenues.  For the ever-important holiday quarter the estimates are $2.64 EPS and $12.6 billion in revenues.  This has a huge premium at over 70-times this year’s expected earnings of $0.85 EPS and about 50-times FY Jan-2011 estimates.  The premium is because there is a huge asset play here for Lampert’s real estate under the stores.  Investors are probably betting that Lampert traded well in investments too.  So the traditional P/E ratio here doesn’t matter.  At $72.40, the 52-week trading range is $26.80 to $79.35.  Sears has a history of very spotty earnings, yet shares are up significantly from lows and went well above our “stocks to double” price target.

The Children’s Place Retail Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: PLCE) is also on deck next Thursday.  We had a severe discrepancy in estimates here when we were looking them up, so we are not going to provide that data on this stock.  Sorry.  We recently saw October sales metrics down 2%, but online sales were up 36% in October.  Again, the unquantifiable risk here is what happens in flu season because of the kid factor.  With shares around $35.00, and the 52-week trading range is $16.45 to $37.68.

Wet Seal Inc. (NASDAQ: WTSLA) is on deck as a young women’s apparel retailer.  Normally, we might not cover this one, but it is a retailer that has been very range-bound because of a turnaround and because of its mixed performance metrics.  Estimates are $0.03 EPS and $139.79 million in revenues for the past quarter, yet the coming holiday quarter-end estimates are $0.08 EPS and $155.19 million in revenues, yet the company gave guidance of $0.04.  We will hold off on forward valuation multiples because each penny in an EPS scenario for a $3.36 stock will skew the ratios.  October same-store sales were down 1.3%.

Zumiez, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) is the last of the retailers we track for next Thursday.  As much as you have seen “Thursday” you may have figured that was never-ending.  Estimates for the action sports equipment and apparel retailer are $0.14 EPS and $111.89 million in revenues for the last quarter.  For the important holiday quarter-end ahead the estimates are $0.24 EPS and $130.97 million in revenues.  Before last quarter, Zumiez had a habit of beating estimates handily. Unfortunately, its same store sales in October were off by -8.9%.

Ann Taylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) is on deck next Friday morning.  Estimates are $0.06 EPS and $476.2 million in revenues.  Shares are just under $13.00 and the 52-week trading range is $2.41 to $17.50.  While shares have recovered handily from 2008 lows, this one has never recaptured its mojo from when it lost its growth trajectory from 2000 to 2007.

Again, these estimates are likely to change slightly ahead of the actual earnings report next week.  This is also not every single company in the retail and apparel sector with earnings on deck and it follows a sloppy reaction from the retail and apparel reports from many peers this week.  The notion that many CEOs and CFOs this week have not been very clear on what to expect for the holiday season leaves us with even more pause after the significant stock runs we have seen.

Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) is also on deck next Tuesday.  That one is large enough compared to the rest of the crowd that we are holding to give a very detailed analysis and preview on Monday.

JON C. OGG
NOVEMBER 13, 2009

• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) Cut to Neutral at Banc of America.
• Affymax (AFFY) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
• AT&T (T) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
• Cepheid (CPHD) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies.
• Daimler (DAI) Cut to Neutral at HSBC.
• Regions Financial (RF) Cut to Neutral at Banc of America.
• St. Jude Medical (STJ) Started as Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• TASER (TASR) Cut to Neutral at Merriman Curhan Ford.
• The9 Ltd. (NCTY) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
• Tiffany (TIF) Cut to Sell at Banc of America.
• Wet Seal (WTSLA) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.

Jon C. Ogg
July 25, 2008

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.