Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) shares almost hit a 52-week high on Wednesday.  Estimates are $0.75 EPS and $1.32 billion in sales.

Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA) $2.87 EPS on $4.3 billion in revenue; watch for news on northern Africa operations.

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) $0.12 EPS on $1.97 billion in sales; next quarter estimates are $0.16 EPS on $2.08 billion in sales.  This report will have every chip cap-ex stock elsewhere looking closely.

Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) is the “Google of China’ by many investors… estimates are $0.91 EPS and $700.75 million in sales.  Next quarter estimates are $0.83 EPS and $665.9 million in sales.   Around $138 it is back in the middle of its 52-week trading range.

Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) $1.27 EPS and shares are in the lower half of the 52-week range.

DIRECTV, Inc. (NASDAQ: DTV) $0.92 EPS on $7.4 billion in sales; Team Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway added shares to the position.

DaVita Inc. (NYSE: DVA) $1.48 EPS on $1.85 billion in sales; Team Buffett added this as a new position for the Berkshire Hathaway holdings.

Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE: DUK) $0.21 EPS on $3.37 billion in revenue

EarthLink Inc. (NASDAQ: ELNK) is still around and acting as a business broadband provider rather than just a dial-up ISP of the days past.  Estimates are $0.04 EPS and $349.23 million in sales.

General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) $0.41 EPS and $38.2 billion in sales; GM is still a busted IPO but is trading down under 7-times 2012 expected earnings.  Value, or value trap?

Leap Wireless International Inc. (NASDAQ: LEAP) -$1.11 EPS on $808 million in sales.  Watch shares of MetroPCS Communications, Inc. (NYSE: PCS).

Molson Coors Brewing Co. (NYSE: TAP) $0.70 EPS

Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) $1.10 EPS on $3.18 billion in sales

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) was the ‘solar buyout that only got partly acquired’ and shares have been bashed.  At $7.36, the 52-week range is $4.94 to $23.36.  Earnings estimates are -$0.05 EPS on $669 million in sales.

Waste Management, Inc. (NYSE: WM) $0.60 EPS on $3.35 billion in revenue.  The 3.8% yield may make more interest than in rival Republic Services.

Web.com Group Inc. (NASDAQ: WWWW) is expected to post $0.23 EPS and $93.95 million in sales.  If all goes well, this one trades at less than 10-times expected 2012 earnings.  It has been hard to not notice a high degree of advertising out of Web.com of late.

Thursday’s Economic Data:

8:30 AM EST Weekly Jobless Claims (365K est.)

8:30 AM EST January Housing Starts (677K est.)

8:30 AM EST January PPI (+0.4% es.)

9:00 AM EST Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on community banking

10:00 AM EST Treasury’s Geithner speaks to Senate Budget Committee

10:00 AM EST February Philly Fed

10:30 AM EST Weekly Natural Gas inventories

4:30 PM EST Feb. 15 Foreign Central Bank Treasury Holdings

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JON C. OGG

Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) Added to Strong Buy List at Zacks Investment Research.
AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Baxter International Inc. (NYSE: BAX) Reduced to Outperform from the “Top Pick” and target lowered to $58 from $61 by RBC Capital Markets.
BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE: BHP) cut to Underperform and named as Bear of the Day at Zacks Investment Research.
F5 Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: FFIV) Raised to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer.
HomeAway, Inc. (NASDAQ: AWAY) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) named as value stock of the day at Zacks Investment Research.
Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (NYSE: MAA) Raised to Outperform at Keefe Bruyette & Woods.
Novellus Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS) Cut to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan.
OpenTable Inc. (NASDAQ: OPEN) Started as Outperform with a $49.00 price target objective at Credit Suisse.
Smithfield Foods Inc. (NYSE: SFD) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks Investment Research.
Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Raised to “Top Pick” from Outperform at FBR Capital Markets.
Web.com Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: WWWW) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.

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JON C. OGG

Other rating actions were announced for General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM), Liberty Media LLC, Lubrizol Corp., now wholly-owned by Berkshire-Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A; BRK-B), ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG), Orbitz Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: OWW), Web.com Group Inc. (NASDAQ: WWWW), and Cummins Inc. (NYSE: CMI)

General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) is having its ‘Ba2′ corporate family rating and its ‘Baa3′ secured credit facility ratings reviewed for possible upgrade at Moody’s. The company’s new union contract and its improved operating and financial performance are the drivers of the review. Global economic uncertainty and the cyclic nature of the automaking business are the agency’s biggest concern. Also today, S&P assigned ‘AAA’ ratings to $500 million in asset-backed notes for Ally Bank. The funds are primarily intended to finance purchases of new cars from GM and Chrysler.

Liberty Media LLC and its Liberty Starz Group (NASDAQ: LSTZA; LSTZB) and Liberty Capital Group (NASDAQ: LCAPA; LCAPB) have received a ratings downgrade from Moody’s on senior unsecured bonds from ‘B1′ to ‘B3′ and the probability of default rating was downgraded from ‘Ba3′ to ‘B1′. The downgrades follow a court ruling that allows Liberty Media to split-off certain assets. The agency noted that 18% of Liberty Media’s revenues and 37% its enterprise value are being removed, which “disproportionately and negatively affect Liberty Media’s bondholders.”

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A; BRK-B) subsidiary Lubrizol Corp. received a ratings upgrade from Moody’s following its acquistion by Warren Buffett’s company. The agency raised Lubrizol’s debt ratings from ‘Baa1′ to ‘Aa2′ with a stable outlook. There’s no substitute for having access to really deep pockets, or as Moody’s says, Berkshire-Hathaway “now guarantees Lubrizol’s public debt.”

ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG) has had its ‘BBB’ corporate credit and its ‘A-2′ short-term and commercial paper rating, among others, re-affirmed by S&P following ConAgra’s decision to give up its attempts to acquire Ralcorp Holdings Inc. (NYSE: RAH). All the company’s ratings have been removed from CreditWatch and the ratings outlook has been declared stable.

Orbitz Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: OWW) has had its ‘B’ corporate credit rating put on CreditWatch with negative implications by S&P. The agency downgraded debt for Travelport Holdings Ltd. yesterday, which together with The Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) owns 55% of Orbitz.

Web.com Group Inc. (NASDAQ: WWWW) received a preliminary rating of ‘B’ with a stable outlook from S&P on its corporate credit.

Cummins Inc. (NYSE: CMI) received a corporate credit upgrade from ‘BBB+’ to ‘A’ from S&P. Cummins is an engine and parts maker and has been performing above expectations for the past three quarters. Analysts have raised EPS estimates for the current quarter by 10%.

Paul Ausick

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) reported a key beat on its earnings expectations after the close as its profits literally tripled.  The company also said it is not selling an operation to Mosaic and it is multiplying its dividend rate.  CF shares closed down over 8% today and the stock is up about 6% at $150.00 in the after-hours session.

Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR) is not your normal earnings gainer.  Shares were down more than 9% today but the engineering and design firm exceeded earnings estimates with a 5% profit gain as backlog rose over 30%.  Shares are indicated up 3.3% at $56.42 in the after-hours session against a 52-week trading range of $44.04 to $75.76.

Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp. (NYSE: KOG) reported in-line earnings and it beat on revenues with $0.04 EPS and revenues rose some 260% to $22.1 million (above $700K higher than estimates).  Shares are trading up 5.7% at $6.09 in the after-hours session against a 52-week range of $2.43 to $7.70.

LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD) fell by over 9.5% today with the market, but the company now said it has over 120 million members as it posted not just a beat on earnings but positive earnings as sales more than doubled to $121 million.  Shares are now indicated up over 4% at $99.00 in the after-hours.

priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) tanked by more than 7% ahead of earnings, but the online travel site is gaining back all of its losses and then some.  The company beat earnings as revenues rose 44%.  Bookings rose and even a trend of deceleration on growth did not upset William Shatner and friends.  Shares are up over 9.5% at $531.25 in the after-hours.

Spreadtrum Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: SPRD) was hit by more than 7% but the results have it way up.  Earnings were $0.10 above estimates at $0.65 EPS and revenue was up over 15% at $160.2 million vs. $155+ million expected.  It also raised guidance to $172 to $178 million versus almost $166 million expected.  Shares are up over 13% at $15.00 in the after-hours session.

Web.com Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: WWWW) had a solid day as one of the few great winners after it beat earnings and said it is making an accretive buyout of Network Solutions for some $560 million.  Shares were up 19% today to $10.37 and the stock is up 7% at $11.13 in the after-hours session because the CEO is supposed to speak to Jim Cramer.  Where this really ends up tonight is anyone’s guess, but this one is a winner from that deal.

It is possible that some of the gains will dry up if the panic continues.  After all, the NASDAQ: was down over 100 points and the DJIA fell more than 500 points today.  It happens, and we have the key unemployment non-farm payrolls data that could drive the markets even that much more in the morning.

JON C. OGG

We have shown a brief news summary and the implied stock price changes on each after the 4:00 PM EST closing bell.

Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) closed higher by 1.1% ahead of earnings and its earnings report was given a boost by digital sales this last quarter.  Shares are up 3.6% at $12.25, but it will have to rise another 3% before it is outside of a longer-term trading range.

The Andersons, Inc. (NASDAQ: ANDE) beat earnings with $2.42 EPS versus $1.72 estimates as revenues grew 65%… Plant nutrients rule!  Shares closed down 1.5% at $38.49 but the stock is up over 7% in the after-hours at $41.25 versus a year range of $32.01 to $51.23.

Clearwire Corporation (NASDAQ: CLWR) rose handily today by 10% but is giving some back after a deeper loss in the quarter and after planning to add LTE Advanced-ready technology to its 4G network.  Shares are down 2% at $2.42 in the after-hours session.

comScore, Inc. (NASDAQ: SCOR) announced the acquisition of AdXpose for $22 million in stock, but the earnings are taking the stock south despite 38% revenue growth and 23% EBITDA growth.  Shares are down 14.5% at $18.00 after closing at $21.07 today.  Keep in mind that the 52-week range is $17.18 to $31.28.

Entropic Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENTR) is down after a 14% drop in sales sequentially, even if it was a gain of 51% from the year ago period.  Earnings were down sequentially too.  This was not expected and shares are down a whopping 25% at $5.00 in the after-hours session.  Shares had already hit a 52-week low of $6.36 today.

GT Solar International, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOLR) is catching a bounce as the solar equipment maker beat earnings estimates and reiterated annual guidance.  GT shares fell 3.7% today but the stock is up 5.6% at $13.98 today in the after-hours session.  The 52-week range is $6.63 to $17.50.

Leap Wireless International, Inc. (NASDAQ: LEAP) was already weak after MetroPCS stunk up Wall Street this week with earnings.  Misery loves company in pre-paid cellular as it saw a drop in subscriber additions.  Leap Wireless fell 2.2% to $10.04 today and the stock is down 6.3% at $9.40.  That is under the 52-week low of $9.51 by the way.

MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ: MELI) had sales in line with targets but earnings were light for Q2; shares of the online payment and e-commerce platform in Latin America fell 2.7% but are down 4.4% more at $69.11 in the after-hours.

MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (NYSE: WFR) is trading up after beating earnings, even if the year is looking light on guidance.  The wafer producer for chip and solar companies was down 0.4% today but the stock is up 5.7% at $7.39 after hitting a 52-week low of $6.82 today.

Solarwinds, Inc. (NYSE: SWI), which is about as far as being out of the solar business as it can be, beat earnings and revenues, guided its third quarter in line with estimates, and guided 2011 in line with estimates.  Shares rose over 2% today and is up another 8% at $23.00 after the close.

Walter Energy, Inc. (NYSE: WLT) shares were down 2.5% today ahead of results and the company’s miss on earnings has shares down another 5.5% at $104.45.  That is a combined $9.00 move or so from yesterday’s close.

Web.com Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: WWWW) is surging after beating earnings expectations.  The big boost is coming as it is acquiring to acquire Network Solutions for $405 million in cash in a deal that is said to be at least 20% accretive to the $1.22 EPS figure for 2012 and with even higher accretion in 2013.  This is a coup, and the stock rose over 6% today to $8.66 and is up almost 30% at $11.00 in the after-hours.

Zipcar, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZIP) is surging after the company’s earnings report. The company raised full year guidance and shares are up 16% att $26.70 in the after-hours session.  Not bad at all for a freshly public company.

Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) was significantly lower than expected in same-store sales gains of only 4.9%.  This one rose 6% to $27.10 today but the stock is down 13% at $23.50 in the after-hours session.

You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

AXT Inc. (NASDAQ: AXTI) beat earnings and revenues and guided in-line as well.  Shares were up 8.3% at $7.79 on about 75,000 after-hours shares.

BTU International Inc. (NASDAQ: BTUI) was up over 10% ahead of earnings and the street was right that it would beat earnings. Unfortunately, guidance was lackluster and the stock is sliding by 21% to $9.77 in after-hours trading on thin volume.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) was trying to hold up with in-line guidance and after revenues were soft, but that was then… shares are now down over 7.6% at $124.40 in active trading in the after-hours session.

Glu Mobile Inc. (NASDAQ: GLUU) also beat on earnings and shares are higher.  We have the stock trading up 10% at $4.21 on nearly 300,000 after-hours shares.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) isn’t feeling the sting from the high coffee prices as it both beat earnings estimates and raised guidance.  A probable short squeeze is only adding fuel to the fire. Shares are up 18.8% at $76.12 on more than 1.4 million shares in the after-hours.

Las Vegas Sands Corporation (NYSE: LVS) is playing a card game after earnings and is losing.  The casino resort operation earnings rose to $0.37 or $299.4 million, but this was short of estimates and we know how much this was up from its lows.

Myriad Genetics, Inc. (NASDAQ: MYGN) beat earnings and shares are higher on thin volume. The stock rose 6.5% to $22.73 on over 17,000 shares in the after-hours.

OpenTable, Inc. (NASDAQ: OPEN) closed down over 7% today at $105.00 and then reported earnings, but it also sent its CEO up to the top board position as Chairman of the Board.  Shares are down almost 8% at $96.95 on about 395,000 share sin the after-hours session.

Quest Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: QSFT) missed earnings and revenue expectations as costs rose on the operating side.  Shares were down 1% in regular trading but the stock is down about 16.5% at $21.05 on close to 250,000 shares in the after-hours session.

Silicon Graphics International Corporation (NASDAQ: SGI) is up after earnings and after reaffirming guidance.  The shares are up 7.2% at $17.67 on only about 27,000 shares.

THQ Inc. (NASDAQ: THQI) managed to beat earnings but its revenue was soft.  Shares were down about 9% at $3.75 on more than 60,000 shares in the after-hours session.

Web.com Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: WWWW) was down 4% today ahead of earnings and now shares are down over 9% at $13.61 on under 20,000 shares.

JON C. OGG

Blackrock (BLK) upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
CarMax (KMX) upgraded to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
CenturyTel (CTL) upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Internet Brands (INET) Started as Buy at Canaccord.
Lowe’s (LOW) upgraded to Outperform at FBR.
Seagate (STX) upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank; upgraded to Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
Soutwest Air (LUV) Raised to Buy at Argus.
Web.com (WWWW) upgraded to Outperform at FBR Capital.

JON C. OGG

This company is partly a market victim, but it has also been victim ofthe traditional sell-off after its acquisition, re-branding, namechange, and stock ticker change.  That effort frequently causes greatinvestor confusion and can create a multi-quarter problem in many caseswhere online quote and research services have major holes in accuratecoverage data.  That is still the case today.

But this company stole the old Web.com and former Interland for a songand is essentially the poor man’s alternative to VeriSign (NASDAQ:VRSN).  The company offers almost all of the same web hosting and weboffering packages at a far more reasonable cost.  We know thispersonally and from first hand experience. We also notified our special situation readers when VeriSign was above $39.00 that the stock was poised to go to $30.00 or under because of many web trends and industry changes on top of its own internal issues.  Those shares closed under $25.00 yesterday.

We featured this over the weekend as one of the best value stocks in web names in the weekly stocks under $10 newsletter.  Its market cap is a mere $145 million after Monday’s sharp sell-off andthe 4% recovery today still has it at a mere $5.20.  It has about $1.15cash per share, or at least that was the case before its recent $20million share buyback.  The stock does not have stock optionsavailable, and that is one issue we would like to see changed.

Its most recent guidance for 2008 on non-GAAP net income of $0.73 to$0.76 on revenues of $124 to $125 million.  This gives forwardmultiples on the lower end of its targets 7.1-times non-GAAP earningsof and 1.17-times revenues.   When we look at next year’s estimates of$0.88 non-GAAP EPS and $134 million in revenues, those multiples goeven lower.

The company’s churn was down last quarter to 3.9% from 4.1% the priorquarter and it still managed to grow clients to 271,000 from 270,000the previous quarter. Our own base case model was planning forcontractions in subscribers and therefore higher churn.

While the recent turmoil is creating an environment where 7-week oldguidance is as reliable, the valuations here look more thancompelling.  The company cannot be immune, but its lower cost offeringsdo offer some insulation which other web hosts and web servicesproviders have. When the environment for liquidity and mergers becomesmore stable, we think this could be an easy roll-up play for any largeweb services company.  We don’t expect this one to be immune to thecurrent situation. This one came back under $10.00 with far too muchvengeance.  Can it get worse? Of course. That is a risk inherent inany value and growth stock which is subject to the economy, and the market is nuts right now. 

We believethis can go back above $10.00 when the climate is remotely stable,although in the current market we admit that level will be harder andharder to see in the near-term as that is now nearly 100% higher than today’s price.

Jon C. Ogg
September 30, 2008

• Adolor (ADLR) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Allscripts (MDRX) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Ceradyne (CRDN) Cut to Underperform at Wachovia.
• ConAgra (CAG) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
• International Flavors (IFF) Started as Underweight at Lehman.
• McAfee (MFE) Cut to Underperform at FBR.
• Time Warner Inc. (TWX) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein.
• Vertex (VRTX) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
• Vodafone plc (VOD) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Web.com (WWWW) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.

Jon C. Ogg
September 3, 2008

Just two weeks ago, we issued a SPECIAL SITUATION alert to our newsletter subscribers with a short sell or put option strategy based upon many current and recent concerns we have.  We sent out an alert on Monday night asking for holders to cover HALF of the position.  This gain on Tuesday morning would have been approximately 20% on the stock, but the options trade (DEC08 $32.50 PUTS) would have generated more than a 100% gain.  You can see the actual report sample document here now that this is off of embargo.

Right before the long weekend, the company announced that its CEO was vacating the top spot. While that was the catalyst that prompted our profitable call to bet against it, that is likely the second shoe to drop among many.  Yes, the second.  The first shoe to drop was the April resignation of its CFO and of its Controller simultaneously.  Sorry, but that is more than a flag and cannot just be a coincidence.

So what else is there to not believing the current value of this stock?  Competitors such as Website Pros (NASDAQ: WWWW) (or Web.com), Entrust (NASDAQ: ENTU), Register.com, GoDaddy, 1and1, and others offer far cheaper services, and while we argue that VeriSign is the Rolls Royce of the web we believe that the small business migration growth from the waves of "accidental entrepreneurs" will have to seek lower priced services at shops that offer turnkey solutions.  There is some political risk here after 2009 depending on the US Presidential election, and there are many new domain extensions coming online. 

We also believe that its divesting strategy is taking far too long and is going to generate far less than was initially spent on some of these businesses.  Another isue is teh share buyback, which we believe Wall Street gave the benefit of the doubt over on the entire amount and then some all up front without considering the risks.  The company’s recent expansions may also not pan out for VeriSign as quickly as it hopes.

Lastly, we believe that this last departure puts the bias for a real miss to earnings as a very likely scenario.  That is pure speculation though, as the company didn’t change its May guidance recently on the CEO departure.  We also believe that its operating costs are going to grow, and we also believe that it will have a hard time passing down additional price hikes for domain registration.

There are many risks to staying negative after such a sharp and fast drop.  Butthat is why we believe that only a half position should be maintained in a bet against the company. We have continued to favor Website Pros, Inc. (NASDAQ: WWWW) for our "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter and just issued a new alert on that one this last weekend.

Risks in staying negative in VeriSign here revolve around the company suddenly selling units that have been on the block, accelerated share repurchases, accelerated and above expectations new orders and expanded orders from key customers, domain growth, and more.

Jon C. Ogg
July 9, 2008