The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down about 17 points to 12,845.20 (-0.13%), the NASDAQ fell almost 4 points (-0.13%) to 2,901.99, and the S&P 500 fell -0.04% or less than 1 point to 1,344.33.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) raised to ‘buy’ at BofA/ML; Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY) cut to ‘sell’ at UBS; Comerica Inc. (NYSE: CMA) raised to ‘outperform’ at RBS; Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) raised to ‘outperform’ at Piper Jaffray; and Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE: RDS-A) cut to ‘neutral’ at Credit Suisse.

Earnings reports since markets closed last week have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Integrated Device Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: IDTI) is down -0.98% at $6.60; McKesson Corp. (NYSE: MCK) is up 1.71% at $82.18; Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc. (NYSE: PCL) is up 0.32% at $39.81; Changyou.com Ltd. (NASDAQ: CYOU) is down -12.43% at $25.50; Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) is down -5.8% at $84.90; Lazard Ltd. (NYSE: LAZ) is down -4.3% at $27.65; Loews Corp. (NYSE: L) is down -0.85% at $38.28; and Sysco Corp. (NYSE: SYY) is down -4% at $29.66.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

SureWest Communications (NASDAQ: SURW) is up more than 44% at $22.50 after posting a new 52-week high of $22.69 earlier. The telecom provider has agreed to be acquired by Consolidated Communications Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: CNSL) for about $341 million, or $23/share.

O’Charley’s Inc. (NASDAQ: CHUX) is up nearly 42% at $9.81 after posting a new 52-week high of $9.88. The company has agreed to be acquired by Fidelity National Financial Inc. (NYSE: FNF) for $221 million, about $9.85/share.

Sohu.com Inc. (NASDAQ: SOHU) is down nearly -15% at $53.61. The Chinese internet company posted solid earnings, but its Q1 forecast was below expectations.

Great Basin Gold Ltd. (AMEX: GBG) is down -11% at $1.05. The junior gold miner reported preliminary results today that were worse than expected and lowered first quarter production estimates.

Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN) is up about 17.6% at $16.66. The drug maker is getting a boost from a negative report on a prostate cancer drug treatment that would compete with Dendreon’s Provenge.

Stay tuned for Tuesday. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before Senate Budget Committee. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 11:30 a.m. – 4- and 52-week Treasury bill auction
• 3:00 p.m. – Consumer credit report

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Paul Ausick

AeroVironment, Inc. (NASDAQ: AVAV) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Aetna, Inc. (NYSE: AET) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Alcatel-Lucent S.A. (NYSE: ALU) Cut to Sell at S&P Equity Research.
Ann Inc. (NYSE: ANN) Cut to Underperform at Barclays.
Cardinal Health Inc. (NYSE: CAH) Reiterated Buy with $52 price target at Argus.
Comerica Inc. (NYSE: CMA) Raised to Outperform at RBC.
Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) Raised to Overweight at Piper Jaffray.
FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (NASDAQ: JAKK) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) named as value stock of the day at Zacks.
PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (NYSE: PNC) Cut to Market Perform at BMO.
Polypore International Inc. (NYSE: PPO) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-A) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Skechers U.S.A., Inc. (NYSE: SKX) Raised to Neutral at Stern Agee.
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (NASDAQ: TEVA) Cut to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley.
Under Armour Inc. (NYSE: UA) Reiterated Buy with $90 target at Argus.
Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE: WY) Cut to Sell at UBS.

If you enjoyed the top analyst calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO and M&A news, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

JON C. OGG

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up nearly 157 points to 12,862.23 (1.23%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 46 points (1.61%) to 2,905.66, and the S&P 500 rose 1.46% or more than 19 points to 1,344.90.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO) cut to ‘hold’ at Argus; Peet’s Coffee & Tea Inc. (NASDAQ: PEET) raised to ‘outperform’ at Baird; Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) cut to ‘underperform’ at Jefferies; Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) raised to ‘buy’ at Janney Capital; and Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) started as ‘neutral’ at Credit Suisse.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) is up more than 11% at $54.83 after posting a new 52-week high of $54.90 earlier (see our coverage here); Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW) is up more than 13% at $9.12; PC Connection Inc. (NASDAQ: PCCC) is down nearly -20% at $10.22; Novellus Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS) is down -0.73% at $48.98, but posted a new 52-week high of $49.92 earlier in the day; PerkinElmer Inc. (NYSE: PKI) is up more than 6% at $26.21; Beam Inc. (NYSE: BEAM) is up 2.4% at $54.28; Estee Lauder Cos. Inc. (NYSE: EL) is down -3.64% at $56.71 (more coverage here); and Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY) is up more than 5% at $21.19.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Threshold Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: THLD) is up nearly 115% at $2.77. The pharmaceuticals firm has announced a global development deal with Germany’s Merck.

Tudou Holdings Ltd. (NASDAQ: TUDO) is up nearly 19% at $16.66. The Chinese online video company has signed a deal with Sina Corp. (NASDAQ: SINA) to provide a video platform for Sina Weibo, a Twitter-like social site.

Zoltek Cos. Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOLT) is up nearly 39% at $13.14. The specialty fibers maker posted good earnings number and forecast continued growth in the market for wind turbines which use its carbon fibers in blade construction.

STR Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: STRI) is down nearly -20% at $9.08. The company manufactures materials used in solar PV modules, and lowered its fourth-quarter guidance this morning.

Mannkind Corp. (NASDAQ: MNKD) is down nearly -13% at $2.15 after posting a new 52-week low of $2.14 earlier. The biotech company has priced its public offering of units containing one share of stock and warrant to purchase another 0.6 shares. More coverage here.

Stay tuned for Monday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 11:30 a.m. – 3- and 6-month Treasury bill auction
• 3:00 p.m. – Treasury STRIPS

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Have a great weekend.

Paul Ausick

In the firm’s equity income allocations, the firm is selling 100% of its allocation in American Electric Power Co. (NYSE: AEP) at $41.14 and is adding in Williams Companies Inc. (NYSE: WMB) at $28.22.

As far as growth and income, Argus is recommending to buy CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) at $23.32 and Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) at $79.00; and it is recommending that the model portfolio sell all of its positions in Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) at $97.17 and Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY) at $19.18.

Finally, in mid-cap growth the firm’s model portfolio is buying VeriFone Systems Inc. (NYSE: PAY) at $37.12 and buying MDU Resources Group Inc. (NYSE: MDU) at $21.50.  It is selling 100% of its position in IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (NYSE: ICE) at $113.13.  Another selling stock, but only by 20% of its allocation is Hain Celestial Group Inc. (NASDAQ: HAIN).

Speaking of model portfolios, here were the 5 most undervalued DJIA stocks and the 5 least attractive DJIA stocks based upon consensus targets.  Here are the top 4 DJIA stock picks from Jim Cramer for 2012.

Also, we made a lot of changes this year to the 24/7 Wall St. 2012 Model Dividend Portfolio.

JON C. OGG

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including the addition of Aetna, Inc. (NYSE: AET) to Goldman Sachs’ Conviction Buy list. Goldman also raised Amerigroup Corp. (NYSE: AGP) to ‘buy’. JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT) cut to ‘hold’ at Stifel Nicolaus; Sandisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) cut to ‘neutral’ at Sterne Agee; Weyerhaeuser Corp. (NYSE: WY) raised to ‘hold’ at Deutsche Bank; Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) cut to ‘equal-weight’ at Global Equities Research; and Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) started at ‘neutral’ by JP Morgan.Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Shaw Group (NYSE: SHAW) up nearly 5.5%, at $23.39; Loews Corp. (NYSE: L) is down about -3%, at $40.07; Identive Group Inc. (NASDAQ: INVE) is down more than -6.5%, at $2.37; and Humana, Inc. (NYSE: HUM) is up more than 6.5%, at $85.68.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: MNTA) is up more than 22%, at $14.96. The shares jumped following a court ruling that will hamper the introduction of competing drugs.

NuPath Inc. (NASDAQ: PATH) is up more than 15%, at $2.68. The company reported positive results on tests of its patch treatment for migraine headaches.

NPS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: NPSP) is down more than 33%, at $5.18. The company said that two patients for its new bowel drug died and another developed cancer.

Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) is down more than -15%, at $4.06. This could well be caused by bit of profit-taking on solar stocks that posted sharp gains on Friday.

Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL), another solar maker, is also down about -14%, at $8.04. Just another day in the solar whirlwind.

Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is down about -16%, at $7.31. The biofuel maker was refused a re-examination of a patent by the US Patent and Trademark Office.

Stay tuned for Tuesday. A two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve board of governors begins tomorrow. The first data on auto sales in October is expected tomorrow as well.  We have noted the following events (all times Eastern):

10:00 a.m. — ISM Manufacturing index released
10:00 a.m. — US construction spending for September 2011

Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) Raised to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
AMERIGROUP Corporation (NYSE: AGP) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Eni SpA (NYSE: E) Raised to Buy at S&P.
JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Juniper Networks, Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) Raised to Outperform at RBC.
The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) Started as Neutral at JPMorgan.
News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWSA) Started as Neutral at UBS.
RPC, Inc. (NYSE: RES) Raised to Buy at Canaccord Genuity.
Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) Started as Neutral at JPMorgan.
Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) Cut to Equal-weight at Global Equities Research.
SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) Cut to Neutral at Stern Agee; named value stock of the day at Zacks.
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. (NYSE: SKT) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
TMS International Corp. (NYSE: TMS) Started as Outperform with $11 target at Credit Suisse.
Vodafone Group Plc (NYSE: VOD) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Watson Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE: WPI) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY) Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) Started as Neutral at JPMorgan.

We also have some more data on analysts and the calendar.  Here are the top analyst upgrades and downgrades of the last week.  We also have the top twelve earnings reports and an economic calendar for what is coming down the pipe this week.

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JON C. OGG

Markets opened slightly lower this morning and spent the morning trying to decide on a direction. The Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose more than expected, but even that was not enough to charge up investors. In the early afternoon, advances were leading declines on the NYSE, while the status was just the reverse on NASDAQ. Both oil and gold prices were slightly lower after rising sharply yesterday. So far this month, markets are up a solid 13%.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up nearly more than 21 points to 12,230.35 (0.18%), the NASDAQ fell about -1.5 points (-0.05%) to2,737.15, and the S&P 500 rose 0.03% or about 0.47 points to 1,285.06.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including a raise for Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) to ‘outperform’ at Wells Fargo. First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) was maintained at ‘buy’ but the target price was cut to $90 at Argus; Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT) cut to ‘sector perform’ at Scotia; Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS) cut to ‘sector perform’ at CIBC; Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) raised to ‘outperform’ at Macquarie; and Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) raised to ‘outperform’ with a new target price of $135 at Credit Suisse.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) is up 0.3%, at $109.99, two pennies short of a new 52-week high; Coinstar, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTR) is down about -7.6%, at $48.91; Merck (NYSE: MRK) is up 2.3%, at $35.10; Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) is up 4.33% (our coverage here), at $144.38; Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY) is up 1.6%, at $18.23; and The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (NYSE: IPG) is up 11.6%, at $9.94 (our coverage here).

Several other standouts from today follow …

Stillwater Mining Co. (NYSE: SWC) is up more than 27%, at $12.65. The company beat earnings estimates this morning, and has reiterated its production estimates for platinum and palladium for 2011. Stillwater recycled 133,500 ounces of platinum, palladium, and rhodium in the third quarter, up 70% from the same period a year ago.

Align Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALGN) is up more than 34%, at $23.94. The company posted solid earnings for the third quarter and announced a $150 million stock buyback program. Align manufactures and sells Invisalign teeth straightening products.

Stamps.com Inc. (NASDAQ: STMP) is up more than 25%, at $32.48 — a new 52-week high — following an outstanding earnings report. Stamps.com raised its non-GAAP EPS estimate for the second time this year, to $1.20-$1.40. The company originally estimated non-GAAP EPS of $0.85-$1.05.

Computer Programs and Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CPSI) are down more than -28%, at $51.10. The company missed both revenue and EPS estimates for the quarter, and the fourth-quarter outlook is also weak. The company’s $1.44/share dividend takes some of the sting out of the poor results.

Spansion Inc. (NYSE: CODE) is down more than -25%, at $10.46, after posting a new 52-week lower earlier today of $9.17. The company released a weaker fourth-quarter forecast and announced the closure of its plant in Kuala Lumpur as part of its effort to cut costs.

Digital River Inc. (NASDAQ: DRIV) is down more than -19%, at $18.52. The company’s third-quarter earnings were short of expectations and the fourth-quarter forecast was lowered.

Stay tuned for Monday.  We have noted the following events (all times Eastern):

9:45 a.m. — Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
3:00 p.m. — USDA farm prices

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Which U.S. industries and companies stand to get hit the hardest in the event a trade war gets started? The U.S. Census Bureau provides data on the dollar amounts of U.S. imports from and exports to China that we have looked at to see where the impacts could be the largest.

According the Census Bureau data, in 2010 the U.S. imported goods from China worth about $365 billion, while exporting goods worth about $92 billion. If the U.S. were to implement tariffs on imports, the likeliest targets would be the goods with the largest dollar value. These imports include computer, semiconductors and telecom gear worth about $88 billion in 2010, clothing and other household goods worth an aggregate of about $71 billion, toys and similar items worth about $27 billion, televisions and other video equipment worth about $15 billion.

If all that sounds like the stuff you can buy at Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) or Target (NYSE: TGT) or any number of other U.S. department stores, then be prepared to pay more for these items. Because comparatively little clothing or TVs or toys are manufactured in the U.S. any longer, an import duty on these items would hurt U.S. consumers without providing a lot of help to U.S. manufacturers. Hopes that a new manufacturing segment might spring up are not likely to be realized among large companies but smaller manufacturers could gain some benefit.

However, if China responds with import tariffs of its own, several major U.S. industries could get seriously hurt. Raw materials exports such as coal, copper, iron ore, lumber, and other metals are particularly vulnerable. So are agricultural products like soybeans, cotton, and corn. Industrial and agricultural machinery exports could also face penalties. Another substantial U.S. export is automobiles.

Coal miners like Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) and Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) could get hit, as could copper miners Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX) and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO). Lumber companies Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) and Plum Creek Timber (NYSE: PCL) could face higher duties on log exports.

Agricultural products companies such as Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM) and Bunge (NYSE: BG) could be in China’s sights if duties are applied to food exports. Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) and Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) are likely to see prices for their equipment rise with a concomitant loss of sales to competitors from Japan and Korea.

General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Ford Motor (NYSE: F) both look to China as a growth opportunity. In 2010 U.S. car sales in China totaled more than $3 billion. Slapping a tariff on U.S. cars could really chill the hopes of the U.S. automakers. General Electric (NYSE: GE) could also face tariffs on industrial engines and parts, as well as aircraft parts and other equipment.

China has been fighting inflation for most of this year by restricting bank lending and raising interest rates. Absent a significant currency adjustment, this does little good for the global economy and not much long-term good for China’s domestic economy. If the yuan were allowed to float freely, it could appreciate by as much as 30%. That would quickly eliminate the inflation threat in China, bringing the cost of the country’s goods more into line with foreign costs, slowing the country’s exports, and giving other economies a chance to fill the gap and begin growing again.

But that outcome does not appear likely. Instead, China appears willing to fight the Senate legislation with a trade war. The war of words is likely to last well into next year, but the first real shot is already being primed.

Paul Ausick

The company is selling its hardwoods and shipping lines businesses as it tries to deal with continuing problems with demand for lumber in the US housing market. And while Weyerhauser is shedding assets, other companies in the forest products industry are trying to acquire some. The most noticeable is International Paper Co. (NYSE: IP), which has taken an already rejected offer of $3.3 billion for Temple-Inland Inc. (NYSE: TIN) directly to Temple-Inland shareholders. Rock-Tenn Co. (NYSE: RKT) recently completed its acquisition of Smurfit-Stone Container Corp. and Boise Inc. (NYSE: BZ) has also picked up another packaging firm.

In a recent report, Standard & Poor’s showed that strong balance sheets and attractive financing terms will increase M&A over the next several quarters in the forest products industry in North America.  S&P believes that all of the action will occur in the paperboard and packing sectors, but that consolidation in the wood products sector is unlikely due to the weak recovery in the housing market.

That sounds about right. Weyerhaeuser isn’t the only lumber company that’s having earnings troubles. Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LL) recently cut its forecast and the stock got pounded. Weyerhaeuser, Plum Creek Timber Co. (NYSE: PCL), and Rayonier Inc. (NYSE: RYN) are all trading below 52-week highs. Pope Resources LP (NASDAQ: POPE) has posted a share price gain of around 80% in the past twelve months, but its market cap is still only about $205 million, far smaller than any of the others.

Rayonier missed estimates yesterday and Plum Creek missed estimates earlier this week.

S&P suggests that “[a]cquisitions that result in further industry consolidation could potentially improve our business risk assessments” in the forest products sector. But with the possible exception of Pope, with its low market cap, it doesn’t appear that any large-scale deals are on tap for the lumber business.

Weyerhaeuser shares are trading up fractionally just before noon today, at $20.06, within a 52-week range of $15.06-$25.33. The Guggenheim Timber ETF (NYSE: CUT) is trading down fractionally, at $19.62, within a 52-week range of $17.26-$23.56.

Paul Ausick

Traditionally, homebuilding soaks up a lot of U.S. timber production, but the market for new houses is very soft and has been for two years or more. Timber companies have been supported primarily by exports to Asia and real estate sales. Timber producers like Pope Resources LP (NASDAQ: POPE), Rayonier Inc. (NYSE: RYN) and Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc. (NYSE: PCL) have seen share prices rise from nearly 20% to more than 80% in the past 12 months. The Guggenheim Timber ETF (NYSE: CUT) is also up more than 20% in the past 12 months. Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE: WY) and Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LL) have seen stock prices fall — Weyerhaeuser when it converted to a REIT in July 2010, and Lumber Liquidators last week when the company cut its forecast for 2011.

The exports to Asia aren’t leaving the docks without controversy however. In 2010, timber exports to China doubled to $270 million when total log shipments to Asia reached a 14-year high of 1.1 billion board feet from Pacific Northwest ports, up from 700 million board feet in 2009. Prices for logs have gone up for Pacific Northwest timber, but prices in the southeast U.S. are at their lowest point in 15 years.

In the logging country of Oregon and Washington, the central issue of log exports becomes jobs. When whole logs are shipped instead of milled lumber, mills close and jobs are lost. By one estimate, for every million board feet of log exports the Northwest loses 12 jobs, mostly in family-owned and operated mills. In the past two years more than 20,000 jobs have left for Asia, and as many as 26,000 could depart in 2011, when shipments to Asia could top 1.5 billion board feet. It is important to note that logs exported to Asia are cut from private land only because U.S. law forbids exporting logs cut on public lands.

Timber companies ship more logs to Asia because demand within the U.S. for milled lumber has dried up. China, Japan, and Korea operate their own mills and want to employ their own citizens to mill the lumber imports from the U.S. Demand for lumber in Asia keeps the price of U.S. logs high.

And with high export prices come higher prices for the commodity lumber contract. Timber producers in the southeast U.S. are selling to pulp and paper mills at lower prices than milled lumber, while northwest timber producers drive up the cost of lumber even though U.S. domestic demand is very weak. It’s an unusual situation, to say the least.

Lumber Liquidators has set another 52-week intra-day low today, at $18.04, down more than 3% from Friday’s close. The shares are threatening a two-year low of around $17/share. The Guggenheim Timber ETF (NYSE: CUT) is also down more than 3% to $20.54, and the 52-week range is $17.26-$23.56.

Paul Ausick