We are monitoring earnings reports from the following companies for Monday and Tuesday: ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP); Illumina Inc. (NASDAQ: ILMN); Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX); Texas Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ: TXN); Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN); Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL); AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T); Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU); Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH); Juniper Networks Inc. (NYSE: JNPR); 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM); Regions Financial Corporation (NYSE: RF); United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X); and United Technologies Corporation (NYSE: UTX).

More earnings report previews will come on Sunday or Monday for the reports due on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.  Consensus estimates and price targets are from Thomson Reuters.  Color has been on added on each if applicable.

MONDAY, April 23

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is set to report Monday morning and the break-up is going to make any real apples to apples comparison difficult to interpret.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $2.07 EPS.  Shares are trading around $73.15 and the 52-week range is $58.65 to $81.50; Thomson Reuters had a consensus target as of Friday of $81.05.

Illumina Inc. (NASDAQ: ILMN) is no market mover with a $5.4 billion market cap, but it is a recent merger candidate even if that appears to be off the table.  Earnings estimates are $0.32 EPS and $263.6 million. Shares are trading around $44.00 and the 52-week range is $25.57 to $79.40; Thomson Reuters had a consensus target as of Friday of $52.71.

The companies we examined were United States Steel Corp. (NYSE: X), Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE), Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD), Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM), Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX), Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW), Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX), Southern Copper Corp. (NYSE: SCCO), Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA), and Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE: MCP).

Since November, gold prices have gained about 3%. Silver prices are essentially flat, and copper prices are up by about 5%. Titanium prices are about 6% lower, steel prices have been falling and are now about 7% lower than in November, and rare earth minerals exports from China were below expected levels in 2011, causing a price drop in the latter part of the year. Chinese production projections for 2012 are roughly equal to the 2011 production quota of 31,000 metric tons.

Newmont’s consensus target price has fallen from $81 in November to $77.92. At a current price this morning of $62.98, Newmont’s implied gain is 23.7%. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has gained more than 5%, with a 12-month share price gain of about 6.8%. The company raised its quarterly dividend to $0.35, a jump of 133%, following a pledge to raise dividends if gold price targets were met. The company’s dividend yield is now 2.3%.

Barrick’s target price has also been cut, from $68 to $64.72. At its current price of $49.62, Barrick’s implied gain is 30.4%. Year-to-date shares are up about 9.6%, but for the preceding 12 months, Barrick’s stock is down 5.6%. Shares are trading at less than 6% away from the 52-week high of $55.95. Over the past month, Barrick’s shares have gained 12%.

Molycorp’s target price fell from $70 to $52.83. At a current price of $28.68, the potential upside is a whopping 84%. Molycorp’s shares have lost about 38% in the past 12 months, though since January shares have risen about 20%. The company is expected to report EPS of $0.41 on revenue of about $135 million after markets close today. The company has begun a phased launch of its new manufacturing facility and expects to produce 19,050 metric tons of oxides by the end of the third quarter. That would be good news if prices weren’t falling.

US Steel’s target price remained nearly flat from November’s $34.50 to today’s $35.21. At the current price of $28.19, the implied gain is 24.9%. Falling steel prices in the fourth quarter hurt all steel makers. Global crude steel production grew 6.8% in 2011, which combined with a slower growing economy depressed prices. Global production was down -7.8% year-over-year in January, which could herald a comeback in pricing.

Nucor’s target price has risen from about $45 to $48 since November. At the current share price of $43.44, the potential upside is 10%. Two recent analyst downgrades have chopped share price gains, but Nucor’s stock is still up nearly 10% since January.

Freeport-McMoran’s target price actually rose from$53 to $55.28 in the last three months. At the current share price of $43.89, the potential upside for the stock is 26%. Freeport had a lousy fourth quarter, due mainly to labor strife in Australia. Slowly rising copper prices should help, but production may have to be reined in to keep prices moving up.

Silver Wheaton’s consensus target price fell from $49.50 to $47.80, while the share price has gained more than 26% in three months. At the current share price of $39.29, the implied gain here is 21.7%. Silver prices are roughly flat since November, and unless they improve, Silver Wheaton’s share price won’t either.

Alcoa’s target price has dropped from $13 to $11.53 since November. At the current price of $10.46, the implied gain in Alcoa stock is about 10%. Alcoa appears to have little attraction at its current share price, which is more likely to suffer than prosper from a glut of aluminum.

The target price for Steel Dynamics has risen from $16 to $18 in the past three months. At the current price of $14.75, the implied gain in the stock is 22%. As with US Steel, whether or not Steel Dynamics has a chance to add value depends on demand for steel and what that will do to prices if production continues to grow.

Southern Copper’s target price hjas fallen from $36.25 to $35.58. At the current price of $33.45, the implied gain for Southern Copper is 6.4%. The only thing that will boost Southern is a rise in copper prices.

The underlying softness in commodity prices makes any play other than gold a risky choice. Newmont and Barrick, the two gold producers in this bunch, offer significant upside potential, and rising gold prices should help, provided the miners can keep costs under control.

Paul Ausick

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up nearly 73 points to 12,874.04 (0.57%), the NASDAQ rose more than 27 points (0.95%) to 2,931.39, and the S&P 500 rose 0.68% or more than 9 points to 1,351.76.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including U.S. Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) cut to ‘hold’ at KeyBanc; Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) raised to ‘outperform’ at FBR; Anheuser Bush InBev (NYSE: BUD) started as ‘neutral’ at Credit Suisse; Alcatel Lucent SA (NYSE: ALU) cut to ‘sell’ at SocGen; and Monster Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: MWW) cut to ‘sell’ at Citigroup.

Earnings reports since markets closed last Friday have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Diebold Inc. (NYSE: DBD) is up 9.3% at $37.97 after posting a new 52-week high of $39.72 earlier today; KVH Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: KVHI) is down -8.7% at $9.04; Nam Tai Electronics Inc. (NYSE: NTE) is down more than -12% at $5.83; and Earthstone Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: ESTE) is up 22% at $21.35. See our preview of companies announcing earnings tomorrow.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Blue Dolphin Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: BDCO) is up about 69% at $8.75 after posting a new 52-week high of $10.48. The pipeline and oil & gas producer has no news, but crude prices are rising today and Blue Dolphin is appealing to investors.

Complete Genomics Inc. (NASDAQ: GNOM) is up nearly 40% at $4.60. The DNA-sequencing company has been selected by the Mayo Clinic to supply outsourced whole human genome sequencing.

Chelsea Therapeutics International Inc. (NASDAQ: CHTP) is down more than -38% at $3.08 after posting a new 52-week low of $2.90 earlier today. The development stage pharmaceutical company reported that it would present additional information for its new drug application currently pending before the FDA. More coverage here.

Crawford & Co. (NYSE: CRD-A) is down more than -13% at $3.95. The claims management service reported weaker than expected earnings this morning.

Gevo Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is up nearly 20% at $$10.18. The alternative energy company has no news today. See more coverage here.

Stay tuned for Tuesday. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart are giving speeches. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

7:30 a.m. – Small business optimism index
8:30 a.m. – Retail sales
8:30 a.m. – Export and import prices
10:00 a.m. – Business inventories
11:30 a.m. – 4-week Treasury bill auction

Paul Ausick

Abercrombie & Fitch Company (NYSE: ANF) Reiterated Buy with $70 target at Jefferies.
AES Corporation (NYSE: AES) Started as Buy at UBS.
Alcatel-Lucent S.A. (NYSE: ALU) Cut to Sell at Soc-Gen.
Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (NYSE: DD) Started as Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley.
Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (NYSE: EL) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ: MNKD) Started as Overweight at Piper Jaffray.
Micron Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) Reiterated Outperform with $12.00 target at Credit Suisse.
Monster Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE: MWW) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
Noble Corporation (NYSE: NE) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) Raised to Outperform at FBR.
Sears Holding Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Tractor Supply Co. (NASDAQ: TSCO) Maintained Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
U.S. Steel Corporation (NYSE: X) Cut to Hold at KeyBanc.
Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $130 at Argus.

Read Also: The Top Analyst Calls of the Last Week

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We have provided estimates from Thomson Reuters on each and offered commentary and guidance on some of these companies.  More detailed previews will be available Tuesday morning for the reports due after the closing bell.  The current previews are below:

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) has seen shares back off of highs and the stock is down more than 20% from its year high and all-time high.  The estimates are $0.19 EPS and $18.2 billion.  The Kindle will be a huge focus, but the concern is that the company has been allowing its margins to get crushed far to much for far too long.

ARM Hldgs PLC (NASDAQ: ARMH) is key now that it powering so many smartphones, finally living up to its ambitions of the last decade.  As a reminder, these earnings are translated from British Pounds, and estimates are $0.14 EPS and $193.3 million in revenues.

Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) is effectively the second largest pure biotech company and it finally outperformed in 2011.  Estimates are $1.49 EPS and $1.29 billion in sales.  The new screening test to determine if MS patients using TYSABRI are at risk of developing PML has been undercovered by our take.

Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) was recently given a huge and successful pop after a Jim Cramer tout.  Estimates are $0.65 EPS and $1.8 billion in sales.

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) has a relatively low bar set after Chevron’s earnings stank up the place last week.  Thomson Reuters has estimates for the DJIA component of $1.95 EPS and $119.7 billion in sales.  Keep in mind that revenues are not as widely covered as earnings per share.  Estimates have ticked down by $0.03 in just the last few days.

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is going to show just what happens to earnings with Lipitor now being off-patent.   Pfizer has estimates out there of $0.47 EPS and $16.61 billion in revenues.

Seagate Tech Inc. (NASDAQ: STX) has already risen off of guidance but the Thai flooding and PC flux right now create ongoing wild cards.  The disk drive maker is expected to post earnings of $1.07 EPS and $3.14 billion in revenues.

United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) is expected to report earnings of $1.26 EPS on sales of $14.45 billion.  We will be looking for additional information on past price hikes in the new climate.

United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X) recently announced that its production in Slovakia was returning to a 5-day week from a 4-day week due to demand and after labor agreement negotiations.  The estimates are a large loss at -$0.84 EPS on $4.73 billion in sales.  While it has bounced, U.S. Steel is still down by half from a year ago.

Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) is holding up better than we would have guessed if you have watched refining margins of late.  Estimates are for a loss at -$0.17 EPS on $32.3 billion in sales.

JON C. OGG

Patriot Coal officials said demand for met coal has weakened in the last few weeks, especially export demand. Demand from China, the world’s largest importer of met coal, is expected to remain weak through the first half of the year, although demand is expected to rise in the second half as Chinese and European economies begin to grow again. Total consumption of met coal could fall by 13 million metric tons in 2012.

In the late morning, Patriot Coal shares are down more than -9% at $8.18 in a 52-week range of $6.92-$29.20.

Shares in Alpha are down nearly -8% at $20.76 in a 52-week range of $15.49-$62.65.

James River shares are down more than -8% at $6.77 in a 52-week range of $5.41-$25.59.

Steel maker Arcelor Mittal is down nearly -2%, while US Steel and AK Steel are both down about -3%.

Paul Ausick

Operating margins contracted more than anticipated during the quarter and earnings are expected to be in the range of $0.18 to $0.25 EPS for its fourth quarter.  Unfortunately, Thomson Reuters had estimates at $0.55 EPS.  The company further cited higher fears of a global recession, mostly from the European debt crisis, being responsible for a significant buying pattern slowdown as well as a sharp decline in sales prices.

Operating income in the Metals Recycling Business per ferrous ton is expected to be approximately 50% lower than the $21 per ton seen during the first quarter of 2011, while the Auto Parts Business is going to see operating income about 30% lower.

The only good news is that Schnitzer did note, “Sales prices began to strengthen towards the end of the quarter, but the improvements are not expected to benefit results until later in the second quarter.”

Schnitzer had already lost more than one-third of its value from the 2011 high.  Now shares are down almost 6% at $43.10 versus a 52-week range of $37.00 to $69.43.

United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X) is actually up almost 1% at $26.11 and AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS) is up 1.7% at $7.65 in early trading.

 JON C. OGG

Gold prices have gained about $60/ounce, about 3.6%. Silver prices are up roughly 9%. Copper prices are up by about 8.6%. Titanium prices are unchanged, steel prices have been drifting though more varieties appear to be selling at lower prices, and rare earth minerals vary widely depending on the particular mineral. Lanthanum oxides are selling for about $61/kilogram, while terbium oxide goes for $605/kilogram.

All stock data comes from Yahoo! Finance and current prices were gathered in the early afternoon today.

Of the companies we survey, all but one enjoys a higher stock price today than they did last month. The single exception is Molycorp, which is getting punished today for missing both EPS and revenue estimates. At yesterday’s closing price of $38.70, Molycorp’s share price was higher than it was a month ago.

More interesting, perhaps, were recent changes in median price targets. Only Nucor and Titanium’s price targets have remained the same in the last month. Two stocks, Newmont and Barrick, had their price targets raised and the other seven had price targets lowered.

Newmont’s target price was raised from $77 to $81. At the new target price and a current price of $70.41, Newmont’s implied gain is $10.59, or 15%. The stock put up a new 52-week high last week, and its forward P/E also rose from 10.2 to 11.47. In the past month, shares have gained more than $7, or 11%. The company’s pledge to raise dividends if gold price targets are met is another reason to look carefully at this stock.

Barrick’s target price was raised from $66.50 to $68. At the new target price and a current price of $52.61, Barrick’s implied gain is $15.39, or 29%. Shares are trading at less than 6% away from the 52-week high of $55.95. Over the past month, Barrick’s shares have gained 12%.

The largest drop in target price was settled on Molycorp, which saw its target price fall from $80- to $70. Even at that, the implied gain for the shares, based on today’s price of $34.04, is 106%. The wide gap is due not so much to any failure on Molycorp’s part but to what might be “irrational exuberance” for the stock by investors. There is also the fact that Molycorp’s mineral reserves tend to be heavy on the lower-priced rare earths and light on the higher-priced metals.

The largest percentage drop in target price was claimed by US Steel, which saw its target price fall from $40 to $34.50, nearly 14%. The company posted a new 52-week low on October 3rd. At the current price of $26.08, the implied gain is $8.42, or 32%. US Steel is widely expected to be acquired — and fairly soon — which is attracting short sellers in droves.

Freeport-McMoran’s target price fell from $55 to $53 in the past month, even though shares have added $5.05, or about 15%, in the same period. The implied gain based on the new target price and the current price of $39.83 is 33%. Freeport’s problem is that demand for copper might be stagnating or worse, given the construction slowdown in China.

Silver Wheaton’s target price fell from $51.50 to $49.50, while the share price has gained 17%. At the new target price and based on today’s price of $36.18, the implied gain here is 37%. There is plenty of headroom for Silver Wheaton’s share price to continue rising, but demand for silver will be the driver.

Alcoa’s target price dropped from $15.50 to $13 in the last month, even as the share price has risen by about 8%. At the new target price and based on the current price of $10.58, the implied gain in Alcoa stock is nearly 23%. Given that shares rose by 8% in the last month, anything’s possible, even that Alcoa may hit the lower target.

The target price for Steel Dynamics fell from $18 to $16, while share prices gained a substantial 23% in the same period. At the new target price and a current price of $13.51, the implied gain in the stock is 18%. EPS estimates for the current quarter have fallen by nearly -20% in the past month, following lowered guidance from the company.

Southern Copper’s target price fell from from $36.75 to $36.25 in the past month, even though the share price rose by 21%. At the new target and at the current price of $32.41, the implied gain for Southern Copper is nearly 12%.

Paul Ausick

Janus Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE: JNS) fell -49.4%, from $12.97 to $6.56. The consensus price target is $7.00. Janus has struggled with high redemptions so far this year and the company’s assets under management could fall further by the end of the year.

Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: HCBK) fell -50.9%, from $12.74 to $6.25. The consensus price target is $6.50. Hudson’s mortgage business has been beaten up by low mortgage interest rates, which currently show now signs of rising significantly.

Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW) fell -51.4%, from $13.14 to $6.38. The consensus price target is $8.50. Genworth, an insurance company, has suffered from mortgage insurance woes, as the risk of default on the company’s insured loans rises.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) fell -53.3%, from $175.70 to $82.08. The consensus price target is $185.00. This stock was our worst performer in the month of October, but its decline started in July.

United States Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) fell -56.6%, from $58.42 to #25.36. The consensus price target is $35.00. Like other steelmakers, US steel has struggled with reduced construction and lower levels of automobile manufacturing. The outlook continues weak.

American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) fell -57.2%, from $57.62 to $24.69. The consensus price target is $29.00. AIG continues to feel the weight of its majority ownership by the federal government and its rising cost of capital.

Cablevision Systems Corp. (NYSE: CVC) fell -57.2%, from $33.84 to $14.47. The consensus price target is $22.00. This was another of our biggest October losers.

Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. (NYSE: ANR) fell -60%, from $60.03 to $24.04. The consensus price target is $35.50. Alpha’s $8.5 billion purchase of Massey Energy came at a high point in the coal business, which has since seen asset values fall. Alpha’s overhang on litigation from an explosion at a Massey mine that killed 29 miners.

Monster Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: MWW) fell -60.9%, from $23.63 to $9.23. The consensus price target is $15.00. Monster has suffered from high US unemployment as employers have not been looking to hire new employees.

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) fell -61.8%, from $130.14 to $49.77. The consensus price target is $100.00. First Solar was the second-worst performer in our list of the worst stocks in the month of October.

Paul Ausick

Alcatel-Lucent SA (NYSE: ALU) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies.
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) Raised target to $30 from $28 at Credit Suisse; Reiterated Hold at Canaccord.
Juniper Networks, Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD) Started as Neutral at Lazard.
NRG Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NRG) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) Started as Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Steven Madden, Ltd. (NASDAQ: SHOO) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X) Started as Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) named Growth & Income stock of the day at Zacks.
Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
Zale Corporation (NYSE: ZLC) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.

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JON C. OGG