The EIA reported that U.S. working stocks of natural gas totaled 1.96 trillion cubic feet, about 83 billion cubic feet lower than the five-year average of 2.05 trillion cubic feet. Working gas in storage totaled 2.66 trillion cubic feet for the same period a year ago. Natural gas inventories are roughly in the middle of the five-year range.

Recent mild weather over most of the country has diminished demand for natural gas in the past couple of weeks. The forecast for the next week calls for above-normal temperatures across most of the country, except along the Gulf Coast and the northern tier of stages from Washington to the Midwest. Natural gas futures dropped as low as $3.89 per million BTUs last week, after reaching a peak of $4.44 on May 1.

Here’s how stocks of the largest U.S. natural gas producers are reacting to today’s report:

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), the country’s largest producer of natural gas, is down 0.4%, at $90.84 in a 52-week range of $77.13 to $93.67.

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) is down 2.6%, at $20.11 in a 52-week range of $13.32 to $22.97. Chesapeake’s share drop is largely due to a downgrade to Neutral from J.P. Morgan.

EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG) is down about 0.9%, at $133.53 in a 52-week range of $82.48 to $139.00.

The U.S. Natural Gas Fund (NYSEMKT: UNG) is down 2.9%, at $21.36 in a 52-week range of $15.18 to $24.09. The Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (NYSEMKT: OIH) is up fractionally, at $44.31 in a 52-week range of $32.54 to $45.12. The first fund tracks spot prices; the second includes major drillers and services companies.

The EIA reported that U.S. working stocks of natural gas totaled 1.87 trillion cubic feet, about 99 billion cubic feet lower than the five-year average of 1.96 trillion cubic feet. Working gas in storage totaled 2.6 trillion cubic feet for the same period a year ago.

Late season cool weather had little impact on inventories last week, as the spring weather began to warm. This week’s build is above the five-year average for the week of 69 billion cubic feet. Added to the warmer weather are concerns that speculative long positions on natural gas futures will lead to a sell-off, depressing prices even further. Heavy demand for summer cooling remains several weeks away.

Here’s how stocks of the largest U.S. natural gas producers are reacting to today’s report:

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), the country’s largest producer of natural gas, is down fractionally, at $91.02 in a 52-week range of $77.13 to $93.67.

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) is up 0.8%, at $19.34 in a 52-week range of $13.32 to $22.97.

EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG) is down about 1%, at $136.50 in a 52-week range of $82.48 to $139.00.

The U.S. Natural Gas Fund (NYSEMKT: UNG) is down 1.5%, at $21.18 in a 52-week range of $15.18 to $24.09. The Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (NYSEMKT: OIH) is down 1.1%, at $44.28 in a 52-week range of $32.54 to $45.12. The first fund tracks spot prices; the second includes major drillers and services companies.

The projection actually is not as bad for Down Jones Industrial oil producers like Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) as you might expect, although it may bring some caution or range-bound trading for the United States Oil (NYSEMKT: USO) exchange-traded product. If you watched the oil bubble of 2008, it did not materialize as you might expect for big oil earnings, and the oil companies maintained over and over that the price was not based on market fundamentals.

ETF Securities is talking about fracking and shale oil’s impact on the global oil market. Ultimately, the firm believes that the direction of oil prices in the near term will depend on the sustainability of the U.S. and China economic recoveries. Shale oil production has surged in the United States. Shale production is also expected to expand to Russia and the Middle East, where output from conventional oil is declining. Some key takeaways are as follows:

• Major energy reporting agencies have reduced their estimates of global oil demand.
• Reduction in forecasts of U.S. and China demand and a deterioration of demand conditions in Europe increasing oil supply from shale and an uncertain global growth outlook likely will keep oil prices trading in a relatively narrow range.
• Near-term oil price upside likely will be capped by concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. and China economic recoveries.
• Downside is likely limited to around U.S.$80 a barell for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as production becomes uneconomic for many shale producers under that price.

The report concludes”

Ultimately, the downside for oil prices — barring a major economic or financial shock — should be limited to around US$80 per barrel for WTI, as below that level shale oil production will start to become uneconomic for a number of producers. The increase in US oil exports will also help release some of the downward pressure on the WTI price. Brent oil medium term downside should be limited to not far below Saudi Arabia’s indicated target level of US$100/bbl. Therefore, despite rising global supply and lower demand trends in the West, the price of oil is likely to remain within a relatively tight trading range for the foreseeable future.

As with all predictions, things can get in the way. Supply disruption, military actions, regulatory or legal actions and even taxation can play a role in messing up any accurate projections.

Apple’s market cap today is about $433 billion, compared with Exxon’s of around $403 billion. Exxon’s market cap reached a peak of around $466 billion in the fall of 2007, when oil prices briefly scared $150 a barrel.

Apple peaked at a market cap of about $613 billion almost exactly five years later. But the company did not break through the $400 billion mark until last December. The steepness of Apple’s rise to its peak is matched only by the steepness of its decline. Roughly $200 billion in valuation gained and lost is not much more than a year.

But in a listing that is virtually meaningless, Apple is now firmly back on top. And Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) with a market cap of around $285 billion has just taken over third place in the league tables from Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), valued at $282 billion.

The EIA reported that U.S. working stocks of natural gas totaled 1.78 trillion cubic feet, about 118 billion cubic feet lower than the five-year average of 1.9 trillion cubic feet. Working gas in storage totaled 2.57 trillion cubic feet for the same period a year ago.

Late season cool weather had a smaller impact on inventories last week as the weather warmed. This week’s build is well below the five-year average for the week of 67 billion cubic feet. Warmer spring weather is now expected to cut demand for natural gas over the next few weeks. Heavy demand for summer cooling remains several weeks away.

Natural gas prices on the NYMEX reached $4.444 yesterday, their highest level since July of 2011.

Here’s how stocks of the largest U.S. natural gas producers are reacting to today’s report:

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), the country’s largest producer of natural gas, is up about 0.7%, at $88.13 in a 52-week range of $77.13 to $93.67.

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) is down about 0.7%, at $19.07 in a 52-week range of $13.32 to $22.97.

EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG) is up 0.3%, at $119.19 in a 52-week range of $82.48 to $138.20.

The US Natural Gas Fund (NYSEMKT: UNG) is down 4.2%, at $22.38 in a 52-week range of $15.18 to $24.09. The Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (NYSEMKT: OIH) is up about 0.4%, at $42.38 in a 52-week range of $32.54 to $45.12. The first fund tracks spot prices; the second includes major drillers and services companies.

To put this on par, remember that the S&P ratings agency downgraded the U.S. sovereign debt ratings out of AAA territory down to AA+ before. In short, Apple is being called just as creditworthy as Uncle Sam.

S&P said:

The rating incorporates our assumption that Apple will maintain “minimal” financial risk, with adjusted leverage below 1x, and a “strong” business risk profile, incorporating market-leading products, a globally diverse customer base, and strong profitability. In addition, our stable rating outlook reflects our expectation that Apple will maintain “excellent” liquidity and significant net cash balances.

Fitch Ratings gave a much more cautious ratings outlook on Monday. Apple shares are up another 2%, at $438.60 against a 52-week range of $385.10 to $705.07. Apple is again back to having the largest market cap, versus Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM).

When gasoline prices soared in February of this year, there was plenty of doom and gloom about the direction of U.S. gasoline prices for the rest of 2013. The price jump was the result of the unexpected closing of the Port Reading, N.J., refinery by Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) and the scrum among traders for adequate supplies. Gasoline prices spiked, followed by a spike in Brent crude. After a few weeks, order was restored and prices for both gasoline and Brent started falling again.

Today’s report on personal income and spending, which we covered earlier, confirms the price drop. Personal consumption expenditures for energy goods and services fell 2.7% in March, after rising 5.8% in February. Compared with March 2012, last month’s drop in energy prices was 1.6%.

There are several reasons for the decline. First, more and cheaper crude oil is getting to the eastern portion of the United States from North Dakota and Canada. Second, U.S. demand is falling as more fuel-efficient cars are being purchased, replacing older less fuel-efficient models. Third, it is not in the best interests of major OPEC producers such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi for prices to remain high. These countries can afford to have Brent prices fall by half or so from current levels because they can call on their cash reserves until prices stabilize.

Energy economist Philip Verleger offers several reasons why the major OPEC producers could benefit from lower prices. First, demand may pick up in Europe as lower energy prices help consumers in countries caught up in the eurozone austerity programs. Second, as prices fall the privately held supermajors like Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell PLC (NYSE: RDS-A) would have to cut back on their massively expensive exploration and production projects. Third, if the price drops enough, the drive for renewables will stall. Fourth, Russia cannot afford to follow suit. And last, other major exporters like Iran and Iraq will be squeezed.

As Verleger puts it in his most recent weekly newsletter:

Only increases in consumption combined with declines in output or sharp production cuts when use is dropping will stabilize prices. Neither outcome is likely in the near future.

The price differential between Brent and WTI has fallen to around $10 a barrel, and the movement has mostly come from falling Brent prices. That is the effect of a sharp rise in North American supply and falling demand. And there are more declines yet to come.

Total U.S. production on a barrel of oil equivalent basis declined sequentially for the quarter by 10,000 barrels a day. International production dropped by 13,000 barrels a day sequentially. The U.S. decline was attributed to increased maintenance in the Gulf of Mexico during the quarter, and the international decline was down to timing issues on some production sharing contracts and bad weather. There is the explanation for the missed revenue estimate.

Throughput at U.S. refineries fell by 126,000 barrels a day and by 100,000 barrels a day at international refineries. The declines were attributed to planned maintenance at the company’s Pascagoula, Miss., refinery and increased maintenance at international refineries. In reality, the increased maintenance likely was due to decreased demand for gasoline.

Upstream earnings fell $942 million sequentially and downstream revenues fell by $224 million. The company’s international downstream earnings rose by $121 million year-over-year as a result of higher refining margins. Sequentially, however, international refining earnings were down $28 million.

The company’s CEO said:

Our first quarter earnings were strong. Our consistent financial performance has enabled us to significantly increase the dividend again, and fund major development projects that are the foundation of the company’s future growth in production, earnings and cash flows.

Earlier this week both Chevron and Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) announced dividend increases. Chevron will pay a quarterly dividend of $1.00 a share, for a dividend yield of 3.38%. We noted at the time that Chevron’s hike might have been larger than it needed to be. Today’s results may explain the thinking behind Chevron’s big boost.

The earnings announcement did not include guidance, but the consensus estimate for the second quarter calls for EPS of $3.10 on revenues of $69.12 billion. For the full year, EPS and revenues are estimated at $12.43 and $252.8 billion, respectively.

Chevron’s shares are up 0.4% in premarket trading at $118.51 in a 52-week range of $95.73 to $121.56. Thomson Reuters had a consensus analyst price target of around $128.75 before today’s report.

The U.S. dollar index is trading down 0.38% today, now at 82.733. The GSCI commodity index is up 1.2% at 614.65. WTI crude oil closed up 2.4%, at $93.64 a barrel. Brent crude trades up 1.6% at $103.40 a barrel. Natural gas is up fractionally today at about $4.17 per million BTUs after an in-line storage report (more coverage here). Gold settled up 2.7% today at $1,462.00 an ounce, chalking up its largest one-day gain so far this year.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up more than 35 points to 14,711.82 (0.24%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 23 points (0.70%) to 3,292.48, and the S&P 500 rose 0.47% or more than 6 points to 1,585.17.

There were a several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including F5 Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: FFIV) raised to ‘buy’ at Nomura; Federal-Mogul Corp. (NASDAQ: FDML) raised to ‘neutral’ at Goldman Sachs; Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) cut to ‘neutral’ at Citigroup and J.P. Morgan; Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) raised to ‘buy’ at Hilliard Lyons; and McGraw Hill Companies Inc. (NYSE: MHP) cut to ‘hold’ at Jefferies.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night resulted in some price moves today, including these as of the last half hour of trading: Angie’s List Inc. (NASDAQ: ANGI) is up 30.1% at $26.16 after posting a new 52-week high of $26.72 earlier today; Bally Technologies Inc. (NYSE: BYI) is up 11.4% at $54.67 after posting a new 52-week high of $54.74 earlier today; Fusion-io Inc. (NYSE: FIO) is up 18.4% at $19.70; O’Reilly Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: ORLY) is up 4.7% at $105.86 after posting a new 52-week high of $108.98 earlier today; Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) is down 5.4% at $62.42 (more coverage here); Vale SA (NYSE: VALE) is up 1.8% at $17.05; Western Digital Corp. (NASDAQ: WDC) is down 0.1% at $52.86 after posting a new 52-week high of $57.95 earlier today; 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) is down 2.7% at $105.00; Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) is up 1.1% at $35.92; Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) is up 6.9% at $72.99; Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) is down 1.3% at $88.25 (more coverage here); Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT) is up 3.1% at $40.85 (more coverage here); Proto Labs Inc. (NASDAQ: PRLB) is down 1.3% at $48.10 (more 3D printing coverage here); and Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) is down 14.1% at $24.28 (more coverage here).

Before markets open tomorrow morning we are scheduled to hear earnings reports from Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU), Clearwire Corp. (NASDAQ: CLWR), Coinstar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTR), HealthSouth Corp. (NYSE: HLS), Olin Corp. (NYSE: OLN), Range Resources Corp. (NYSE: RRC), Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX), Wynn Resorts, Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN), Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU), Burger King Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: BKW), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NYSE: NOV), and VF Corp. (NYSE: VFC).

Some standouts among heavily traded stocks today include:

MPG Office Trust Inc. (NYSE: MPG) is up 20.6% at $3.14. The office and real-estate development REIT is being acquired by Brookfield Office Properties Inc. (NYSE: BPO) for $3.15 a share..

Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLF) is up 16.1% at $21.15. The steelmaker and iron ore miner posted better-than-expected results this morning.

Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) is down 7.1% at $3.11. The social games company posted poor results last night and expectations are not encouraging. More coverage here.

Stay tuned for Friday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – GDP
• 9:55 a.m. – University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters consumer sentiment index

The EIA reported that U.S. working stocks of natural gas totaled 1.73 trillion cubic feet, about 94 billion cubic feet lower than the five-year average of 1.83 trillion cubic feet. Working gas in storage totaled 2.54 trillion cubic feet for the same period a year ago.

Late season cool weather continued to draw on inventories last week. As natural gas prices rise, two things happen simultaneously. First, coal becomes more attractive again as fuel for power generation. Second, natural gas producers begin to produce more of the fuel. Both work to push natural gas prices down. How this will work itself out will be interesting to watch.

Here’s how stocks of the largest U.S. natural gas producers are reacting to today’s report:

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), the country’s largest producer of natural gas, is down about 0.9%, at $88.63 in a 52-week range of $77.13 to $93.67. Exxon also reported first-quarter results this morning.

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) is up about 1.3%, at $19.54 in a 52-week range of $13.32 to $22.97.

EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG) is up 2.7%, at $123.20 in a 52-week range of $82.48 to $138.20.

The U.S. Natural Gas Fund (NYSEMKT: UNG) is down 0.4%, at $22.67 in a 52-week range of $15.18 to $24.09. The Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (NYSEMKT: OIH) is up about 0.5%, at $42.26 in a 52-week range of $32.54 to $45.12. The first fund tracks spot prices; the second includes major drillers and services companies.