After adding over 514,000 new cases throughout the last week, the U.S. now has more than 34.2 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 600,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise at a faster rate. In the past week, there were an average of 20.0 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — an increase from the week prior, when there were an average of 10.3 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While COVID-19 has spread to nearly every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between different neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

The Fayetteville, NC, metro area consists of Cumberland County, Harnett County, and Hoke County. In the past week, there were an average of 19.7 new coronavirus cases every day per 100,000 Fayetteville residents, in line with the national figure. The metro area’s average daily case growth in the most recent week is essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 15.6 daily new cases per 100,000 Fayetteville residents.

The spread of coronavirus depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Fayetteville metro area, COVID-19 is growing the slowest in Harnett County. There were an average of 14.3 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in Harnett County during the past week, the least of the three counties in Fayetteville with available data.

Case growth in the Fayetteville metro area varies at the county level. In Cumberland County, for example, there were an average of 22.0 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in the past week — the most of any county in Fayetteville and more than the case growth rate in Harnett County.

Just as Harnett County has the slowest case growth in the Fayetteville area, it also has the lowest incidence of cases overall. As of July 29, there were a total of 9,363.3 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents in Harnett County, the fewest of the three counties in the metro area. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 10,550.2 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In Harnett County, unemployment peaked at 12.2% in May 2020. As of April 2021, the county’s unemployment rate was 4.7%.

To determine the county in every metropolitan area where COVID-19 is growing the slowest, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked counties according to the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the seven days ending July 29. To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in North Carolina where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).

Rank in MSA	County	Population	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending July 29	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending July 22	Cumulative cases per 100,000	Cumulative deaths per 100,000
1	Harnett County	132,283	14.3	11.4	9,363.3	137.6
2	Hoke County	53,957	18.4	11.9	9,398.2	103.8
3	Cumberland County	332,861	22.0	17.8	9,487.1	99.1

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