Special Report

This is the County in the Jacksonville, FL Metro Area Where COVID-19 is Growing the Slowest

After adding over 41,000 new cases on June 23, the U.S. now has more than 33.2 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 590,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise at a steady rate. In the past week, there were an average of 3.0 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 4.7 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While COVID-19 has spread to nearly every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between different neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

The Jacksonville, FL, metro area consists of Duval County, St. Johns County, Clay County, and two other counties. In the past week, there were an average of 8.1 new coronavirus cases every day per 100,000 Jacksonville residents, greater than the national figure. The metro area’s average daily case growth in the most recent week is essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 6.2 daily new cases per 100,000 Jacksonville residents.

The spread of coronavirus depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Jacksonville metro area, COVID-19 is growing the slowest in St. Johns County. There were an average of 6.2 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in St. Johns County during the past week, the least of the five counties in Jacksonville with available data.

Case growth in the Jacksonville metro area varies at the county level. In Baker County, for example, there were an average of 10.1 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in the past week — the most of any county in Jacksonville and more than the case growth rate in St. Johns County.

While St. Johns County has the slowest case growth in the Jacksonville area, it does not have the lowest incidence of cases overall. As of June 23, there were a total of 9,643.0 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents in St. Johns County, the second fewest of the five counties in the metro area. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 10,230.1 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In St. Johns County, unemployment peaked at 11.6% in April 2020. As of April 2021, the county’s unemployment rate was 3.4%.

To determine the county in every metropolitan area where COVID-19 is growing the slowest, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked counties according to the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the seven days ending June 23. To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in Florida where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).

Rank in MSA County Population New daily cases per 100,000, week ending June 23 New daily cases per 100,000, week ending June 16 Cumulative cases per 100,000 Cumulative deaths per 100,000
1 St. Johns County 244,674 6.2 4.1 9,643.0 90.3
2 Clay County 211,405 7.1 5.4 9,254.7 166.5
3 Duval County 936,186 8.7 6.8 10,942.7 158.4
4 Nassau County 83,098 9.5 6.1 10,594.7 152.8
5 Baker County 28,211 10.1 8.2 12,768.1 219.8

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