After adding over 551,000 new cases throughout the last week, the U.S. now has more than 44.8 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 720,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise at a steady rate. In the past week, there were an average of 27.1 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 28.1 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While COVID-19 has spread to nearly every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between different neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

The Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV, metro area consists of Fairfax County, Montgomery County, Prince George’s County, and 22 other counties. In the past week, there were an average of 16.0 new coronavirus cases every day per 100,000 Washington residents, less than the national figure. The metro area’s average daily case growth in the most recent week is essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 15.2 daily new cases per 100,000 Washington residents.

The spread of coronavirus depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro area, COVID-19 is growing the slowest in Manassas Park city, Virginia. There were an average of 1.9 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in Manassas Park city during the past week, the least of the 25 counties in Washington with available data.

Case growth in the Washington metro area varies widely at the county level. In Warren County, for example, there were an average of 51.4 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in the past week — the most of any county in Washington and far more than the case growth rate in Manassas Park city.

While Manassas Park city has the slowest case growth in the Washington area, it does not have the lowest incidence of cases overall. As of October 21, there were a total of 7,447.3 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents in Manassas Park city, the fifth fewest of the 25 counties in the metro area. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 13,816.7 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In Manassas Park city, unemployment peaked at 11.6% in April 2020. As of June 2021, the county’s unemployment rate was 4.5%.

To determine the county in every metropolitan area where COVID-19 is growing the slowest, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked counties according to the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the seven days ending October 21. To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not seasonally adjusted.

Click here to see all current COVID-19 data for Washington D.C.

Rank in MSA	County	Population	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending October 21	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending October 14	Cumulative cases per 100,000	Cumulative deaths per 100,000
1	Manassas Park city	16,986	1.9	2.0	7,447.3	70.6
2	Fairfax city	23,531	2.6	2.7	2,741.1	85.0
3	Montgomery County	1,043,530	9.5	9.5	7,821.3	162.6
4	Falls Church city	14,128	11.8	7.4	3,836.4	56.6
5	Fairfax County	1,145,862	12.6	10.8	7,936.0	102.6
6	Loudoun County	395,134	13.1	12.9	8,532.5	74.4
7	Arlington County	233,464	14.3	12.4	7,867.2	115.2
8	Prince George’s County	908,670	14.7	12.9	10,885.4	188.0
9	District of Columbia	692,683	16.0	17.2	9,144.9	171.1
10	Alexandria city	157,613	16.4	13.6	8,939.6	93.9
11	Charles County	159,428	17.7	20.2	8,961.4	158.7
12	Frederick County	251,422	18.3	16.1	9,486.8	148.0
13	Prince William County	461,423	21.6	19.1	11,778.3	120.3
14	Calvert County	91,511	21.7	24.6	6,094.3	110.4
15	Madison County	13,170	23.4	36.3	7,403.2	151.9
16	Manassas city	41,174	25.0	28.0	12,226.2	123.9
17	Stafford County	146,773	25.5	27.2	10,698.2	70.2
18	Clarke County	14,423	25.6	32.7	9,214.4	159.5
19	Fauquier County	69,728	29.8	30.9	9,790.9	121.9
20	Fredericksburg city	28,622	31.4	30.6	10,572.3	87.3
21	Culpeper County	51,101	35.8	30.2	12,438.1	158.5
22	Spotsylvania County	132,833	36.5	36.0	11,104.2	109.2
23	Jefferson County	56,506	37.6	38.2	11,804.1	141.6
24	Rappahannock County	7,378	39.8	31.5	7,671.5	54.2
25	Warren County	39,492	51.4	47.3	12,301.2	207.6

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