After adding over 59,000 new cases on Feb. 22, the U.S. now has more than 27,700,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 480,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.
New cases continue to rise, albeit at a slowing rate. In the past week, there were an average of 21.2 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — a decrease from the week prior, when there were an average of 29.4 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.
While COVID-19 has spread to nearly every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.
In the 50 largest metro areas, the incidence of coronavirus grew at an average rate of 22.7 new cases a day per 100,000 residents in the past week — 9.0% greater than the case growth in all counties outside of metro areas.
The Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA, metro area consists of Mahoning County, Trumbull County, and Mercer County. In the past week, there were an average of 16.1 new coronavirus cases every day per 100,000 Youngstown residents, less than the national figure. The metro area’s average daily case growth in the most recent week is a decrease from the week prior, when there was an average of 22.0 daily new cases per 100,000 Youngstown residents.
The spread of coronavirus depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman metro area, COVID-19 is growing the fastest in Mahoning County. There were an average of 17.6 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in Mahoning County during the past week, the most of the three counties in Youngstown with available data.
Case growth in the Youngstown metro area is relatively uniform at the county level. In Mercer County, for example, there were an average of 15.0 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in the past week — the least of any county in Youngstown yet relatively in line with the case growth rate in Mahoning County.
Just as Mahoning County is driving the growth of COVID-19 in the Youngstown area, it also has the highest incidence of cases overall. As of Feb. 22, there were a total of 8,283.4 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents in Mahoning County, the most of the three counties in the metro area. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 8,595.4 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.
In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In Mahoning County, unemployment peaked at 20.2% in April 2020. As of November 2020, the county’s unemployment rate was 6.8%.
To determine the county in every metropolitan area where COVID-19 is growing the fastest, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked counties according to the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the seven days ending Feb. 22. To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data up from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not seasonally adjusted.
| County | Population | New daily cases per 100,000, week ending Feb. 22 | New daily cases per 100,000, week ending Feb. 15 | Cumulative cases per 100,000 | Cumulative deaths per 100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahoning County | 231,064 | 17.6 | 24.5 | 8,283.4 | 229.8 |
| Trumbull County | 201,794 | 15.1 | 20.4 | 6,960.6 | 222 |
| Mercer County | 112,630 | 15 | 19.7 | 7,043.4 | 210.4 |
These are all the counties in Ohio where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).
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