Wednesday already brought a fairly strong payrolls report from ADP, which may foreshadow higher payrolls from the Labor Department due on Friday morning. Now we have another report signaling strength as well from TrimTabs.
TrimTabs Investment Research has now indicated that the U.S. economy added between 195,000 and 225,000 jobs in the month of March. What stands out the most here to us is that TrimTabs often has been far more conservative in its payrolls expectations of late.
Wednesday’s report from TrimTabs employment estimates is based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the 136 million U.S. workers subject to withholding. As TrimTabs maintains each month, this tabulation is historically more accurate than the initial estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Job growth last month was the strongest in the past year. While Wall Street economists have been obsessing about the weather, real-time tax data indicates that the economy has been picking up steam.
If this is not a strong endorsement ahead of the BLS report this Friday, what is? We have given a preview for the full BLS report and also for the six precursor indicators ahead of that report.