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According to new research, Hurricane Florence could cause a storm surge that would damage 758,657 homes. Rebuilding these homes and local businesses may reach $170 billion in reconstruction cost values across the Carolinas and Virginia, according to CoreLogic.

Because of the force of a Category 4 hurricane, the losses from Florence could be more than Katrina’s $108 billion, although most of these estimates are not based exactly on CoreLogic’s methods. However, the difference is stark because a Category 4 hurricane can pack sustained winds of 150 miles per hour. And the surge could do more harm than winds and rain.

According to Weather.com:

According to research by Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground, record storm-surge heights of 15 to 20 feet are possible just to the east of the landfall point if Florence strikes the coast of North or South Carolina as a Category 3 or stronger hurricane.

Most of the damage would be in the large coastal cities of North and South Carolina. CoreLogic forecasts Virginia Beach-Norfolk area damage could reach 346,000 homes and total $80 million. Damage in Charlotte could be $34 billion and 133,000 homes.

Methodology:

CoreLogic offers high-resolution location information solutions with a view of hazard and vulnerability consistent with the latest science for more realistic risk differentiation. The high-resolution storm surge modeling using 10m digital elevation model (DEM) and parcel-based geocoding precision from PxPoint™ facilitates this realistic view of risk. Single-family residential structures less than four stories, including mobile homes, duplexes, manufactured homes and cabins (among other non-traditional home types) are included in this analysis. This is not an indication that there will be no damage to other types of structures, as there may be associated wind or debris damage and are not tabulated in this release.