Shares of Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) gained 0.30% over the past month following a rally that saw it rise by 18.66% from its year-to-date low on March 7 through June 2. That brings the stock’s 2025 gain to 11.35%. 

When Costco reported its Q3 earnings on May 29, it announced net income of $1.9 billion and diluted EPS of $4.28 compared to $1.68 billion and $3.78, respectively, year-over-year.  The company beat Wall Street estimates for both revenue and EPS while also reporting an 8% jump in sales, with CEO Ron Vachris saying on the earnings call that Costco rushed shipments ahead of tariffs and has rerouted goods from countries with higher tariffs to non-U.S. markets. 

The warehouse retail club, headquartered in Issaquah, Wash., sells high volumes of foods and general merchandise at discounted prices through membership warehouses. With 905 locations worldwide and 624 locations in the U.S., it is the largest warehouse club, ahead of rivals Sam’s Club, Wholesale Club and BJ’s, and boasts nearly 136.8 million members. Costco’s volume discount warehouse pricing model has been a life preserver for many families pooling resources to buy in bulk and divide afterwards. This has been a key driver of recent growth. Nevertheless, investors are much more concerned with future stock performance over the next one, five and 10 years.

While most Wall Street analysts will calculate 12-month forward projections, it’s clear that nobody has a consistent crystal ball, and plenty of unforeseen circumstances can render even near term projections irrelevant. 24/7 Wall St. aims to present some farther looking insights based on Costco’s own numbers, along with business and market development information that may be of help to our readers’ own research.

Key Points In This Article:

• Costco’s e-commerce platform, already displaying 15% growth, should be a continual growth driver in the future. Meanwhile, its successful business model is not expected to change its fundamentals, although new areas, like A.I., will likely see further development.
• Despite membership price hikes, global renewals have still notched a 90% clip, while international expansion and stronger loyalty towards Costco’s private Kirkland brand are expected to become physical growth drivers in the next half decade. 
• The retail warehouse club’s increased international presence will enhance supply chain efficiencies to maintain margins. 
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Costco (COST) Recent Stock Success Past Performance

Worldwide, Costco memberships have consistently renewed at 90%. In the past 10 years, the store count expanded at a compound annual rate of 3% as management opened 23 net new locations in fiscal 2023 and 31 new locations in 2024. 

Fiscal Year	Price	Total Revenues*	Net Income*
2014	$121.08	$112.6	$2.05
2015	$140.05	$116.1	$2.37
2016	$162.09	$118.7	$2.35
2017	$156.74	$129.0	$2.67
2018	$233.13	$141.5	$3.13
2019	$294.76	$152.7	$3.65
2020	$347.66	$166.7	$4.00
2021	$455.49	$195.9	$5.00
2022	$522.10	$226.9	$5.84
2023	$549.28	$242.3	$6.29
2024	$892.38	$254.5	$7.37

*Total Revenues and Net Income in $billions

Key Drivers of Costco’s Stock Performance

1. ‘If It Ain’t Broken’:  It’s reasonable to expect Costco to continue growing its revenue and earnings within its 10-year mean range. Costco’s massive scale makes the threat of disruption minimal. Similar to Walmart, It’s hard for smaller chains to compete with Costco’s ability to obtain optimum discount  pricing from its suppliers.

2. Durability: Costco’s durability is fueled by its loyal membership base. Memberships carry a 90% renewal rate worldwide, driving repeat purchase behavior. As long as management doesn’t rock the boat with its policy of putting the customer first, Costco will maintain its industry standing.

3. Emerging AI Focus and Expanding Business Lines: A.I. and e-commerce will become key components of Costco’s international expansion strategy. Additionally, broadened international relationships should open the doors for more localized supply chain opportunities. This will help to maintain margins and reduce shipping and other costs to international outlets and their customers.

Costco (COST) Headwinds and Challenges

• Another wave of inflation from Fed Funds rate cuts could completely sink the pooling option for those households already barely hanging on. The result would be canceled memberships, which comprise nearly half of Costco revenues. 
• The late investment guru Charlie Munger was a big Costco fan, but cautioned that the stock would become problematic if its P/E ratio exceeded 40. It is currently 55. 
• Rivals like Sam’s Club have announced the launch of new strategic initiatives to better compete with Costco in the upcoming future.

Costco (COST) Price Prediction for 2025

The median one-year price target from Wall Street analysts is $1,096.36, which represents 8.15% potential upside from today’s share price. Based on 25 analysts covering Costco, the stock relies a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating, with 17 analysts assigning it as a “Buy,” eight assigning it as a “Hold” and zero assigning it as a “Sell.”

However, 24/7 Wall St.’s year-end projection for Costco’s price is more bearish at $907.80, or -10.44% potential downside from today’s price. Our assumption is based on an EPS of $17.80 and a P/E ratio of 51. 

Costco (COST) Stock Price Target 2025–2030

While Costco’s expansion to new countries will launch, local assimilation success will vary depending on regional culture, tastes and practices. As customer service is a major part of Costco’s member loyalty, the etiquette required for each location will not be a cookie cutter winner across the board. Not unlike Walmart’s growing pains in its China venture, Costco will experience its own challenges.  Additionally, Costco’s investment in automated warehouse technologies should continue to improve efficiency and reduce costs. The company’s e-commerce segment should continue to show solid year-over-year growth and take a big leap forward by the end of the decade, thanks to AI.

Greater individualized customization of the purchasing experience in different nations and regions should finally become manifest. Additional enhancements in cold storage and last-mile delivery solutions for maintaining grocery produce freshness should be a winner with customers around the globe. However, this may be offset by potentially higher domestic expenses, due to food supply conflicts between farmers and distributors, like Tyson Foods, as well as the USDA.

By the conclusion of 2030, 24/7 Wall St. estimates that Costco’s stock will be trading for $1,024.90, equating to a 1.1o% gain from the current share price. That calculation is based on an EPS of $27.70 and a P/E ratio of 37. 

Year	P/E Ratio	EPS	Price	%Change From  Current Price
2025	51	$17.80	$907.80	-10.44%
2026	45	$19.61	$882.45	-12.94%
2027	41	$21.85	$895.85	-11.62%
2028	37	$25.54	$944.98	-6.77%
2029	37	$25.53	$944.61	-6.81%
2030	37	$27.70	$1,024.90	1.1o%

 

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