Health and Healthcare

Why ImmunoGen Could See Another 60% of Potential Upside

Jon C. Ogg

Published: March 26, 2018 11:55 am

Last Updated: January 12, 2020 2:04 am

ImmunoGen Inc. (NASDAQ: IMGN) shares benefited after the company presented data from its FORWARD II assessment of mirvetuximab soravtansine in combination with pembrolizumab at the Society of Gynecologic Oncology annual meeting. With the data being positive, there are at least three positive analyst calls helping to highlight even more potential upside for investors.

ImmunoGen already was rated as Buy at Canaccord Genuity, but the firm raised its target price to $20 from $15 based on positive views of mirvetuximab and Keytruda data in ovarian cancer.

Jefferies also viewed the ImmunoGen data positively. The firm raised its target to $15 from $11. And Leerink assumed coverage of the shares with an Overweight rating and a $15 price target.

The Canaccord Genuity report now targets total (US/International) peak royalties of $359 million for the year 2025. Its total sum of the parts from the rest of the pipeline was for a net equity value of almost $2.5 billion. The report said:

We are raising our price target to $20 from $15 based on longer duration of therapy for mirvetuximab in second and third-line patients, now 5.0 months in second-line, and 4.0 months in third-line. We also continue to expect 1) successful futility analysis for FORWARD I during 1Q18, 2) positive mirvetuximab+Avastin dose expansion data at ASCO in June, and 3) continued positive data for mirvetuximab+Keytruda expansion cohort 2H18.

While these analyst reports are quite positive, investors should consider that the new $20 price target from Canaccord Genuity is the street-high target ($18 was prior high target). These three positive analyst calls also come after shares have screamed exponentially higher from last year. The 52-week trading range is now $2.84 to $13.41, and that high was just hit on the heels of these analyst calls.

One key driver that could generate such positive sales and royalties down the road is that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Union have orphan drug designations for mirvetuximab soravtansine as a treatment of ovarian cancer.

ImmunoGen’s $1.65 billion market cap is against expected losses for the coming years. Thomson Reuters sees only $58.5 million in 2018 revenue and $88.0 million in revenue for 2019. Even the 2020 consensus revenue estimate is just $128 million.

The pipeline description on ImmunoGen’s website for mirvetuximab, which is just one of many programs, says:

Mirvetuximab soravtansine (IMGN853), an ADC, is a potential new treatment for patients with folate receptor alpha (FRα)-positive cancer. These include many ovarian cancers, as well as other types of solid tumors (e.g., endometrial).

Mirvetuximab soravtansine is ImmunoGen’s lead program and is in clinical testing in the Phase 3 FORWARD I trial as a single agent for the treatment of platinum-resistant ovarian cancer. The candidate is also being assessed in combination regimens for both platinum-resistant and platinum-sensitive disease in the Phase 1b/2 FORWARD II trial.

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At the end of 2017, ImmunoGen’s net loss carryforwards total was almost $1.03 billion, up from more than $853 million at the end of 2016. The company also raised $88 million last October in a secondary offering, wherein it sold 14.5 million shares at $6.50 per share.

While ImmunoGen may not be a household name among all biotech investors due to its size, this company came public way back in 1989.

ImmunoGen shares were last seen trading up more than 4% at $12.64 in late morning trading on Monday. It had already surpassed its average daily volume of 3.2 million shares.