September Housing Starts Well Below Expectations

October 17, 2018 by Paul Ausick

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported Wednesday morning that new housing starts in September fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.201 million, a drop of 5.3% from the downwardly revised August rate of 1.268 million but an increase of 3.7% compared with the September 2017 rate of 1.158 million.

The revision to the August rate dropped 14,000 new housing starts from the previously reported total. The consensus estimate from a survey of economists expected a September rate of around 1.216 million.

Housing starts in September came in sharply lower than expected considering the downward revision of the August tally. Residential investment appears to be a weak spot in an otherwise strong U.S. economy.

For the first eight months of the year, total starts are up 6.4% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, and single-family starts are up 6.0%. Construction of buildings with five or more units is up 7.3% over the same period.

Single-family housing starts slipped month over month by 8,000 in September to 871,000. The decrease primarily reflects a month-over-month decline of 32,000 in the South.

The seasonally adjusted rate of new building permits slipped to 1.241 million, down 0.6% from the revised August rate of 1.249 million and 1% lower than the September 2017 rate.

Permits for new single-family homes rose month over month in September from a revised annual rate of 827,000 in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 851,000. The rate increased by 2.4% year over year.

Multifamily starts for buildings with five or more units increased by 4.5% year over year in September and fell by 12.9% compared with August. This number is more volatile than the single-family number and has been moving mostly sideways since 2013.

In 2017, 1.202 million housing units were started, up 2.4% compared with 2016, and a 10-year high. An estimated 1.263 million permits were issued in 2017, up 4.7% year over year.

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