October Housing Starts Maintain Solid Upward Trend

November 19, 2019 by Paul Ausick

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported Tuesday morning that new housing starts in October rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.31 million, an increase of 3.8% from the upwardly revised September rate of 1.266 million and an increase of 8.5% compared with the October 2018 rate of 1.211 million.

The revision to the September rate added 10,000 new housing starts to the previously reported total. The consensus estimate from a survey of economists expected an October rate of around 1.32 million.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, housing starts are down 0.6% year over year through October. Single-family starts were down 1.3% and buildings with two to four units have fallen by 7%.

Single-family housing starts rose by 2% month over month in October to 936,000 units on a seasonally adjusted basis. Month over month, new construction of single-family homes dipped by 32.8% in the Northeast and rose by 9.3% in the West, 3.2% in the South and 0.8% in the Midwest.

The seasonally adjusted rate of new building permits rose to 1.461 million in October, up 5% from the revised September rate of 1.391 million and 14.1% higher than the September 2018 rate.

Permits for new single-family homes rose by 3.2% month over month from a revised annual rate of 881,000 in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 909,000. The rate also increased by 7.4% year over year.

Year over year, multifamily starts for buildings with five or more units increased by 10.7% in October to 362,000. This number is more volatile than the single-family number and has moved mostly sideways on an annual basis since 2013.

In 2018, 1.242 million housing units were started, up 3.2% compared with 2017. An estimated 1.311 million permits were issued in 2017, up about 3.7% year over year. These totals are subject to future revisions.

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