Fitch Cuts Forecast for Global Growth
September 27, 2012 by Trey Thoelcke
Fitch Ratings has pared back its forecasts for global GDP growth to 2.1%, citing “persistent weakness” in the global recovery. That is down from Fitch’s June view of 2.2%. For 2013, the forecast was reduced to 2.6% from 2.8%.
Fitch lowered its 2013 GDP growth expectations for the United States to 2.3%, but kept its 2012 forecast at 2.2%. Persistently high unemployment and the uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy are expected to continue to challenge the U.S. economy.
The U.S. also said today that growth in the second quarter was 1.3%, down from a previous estimate of 1.7%, due to less consumer spending and business investment than previously estimated.
Fitch predicts the eurozone economy will contract 0.5% this year. Growth of only 0.3% and 1.4% is predicted for the next two years.
The agency expects emerging markets to post higher GDP numbers, despite also facing growth challenges. For China, Fitch forecasts growth of 7.8% in 2012 and by 8.2% in 2013. In India and Brazil, after a cyclical trough in 2012, economic growth should improve in 2013. Russia is expected to see steady growth at about 3.5% in this year and the next.
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