Investing

11 Very Popular Stocks Now Valued Over 50 Times Earnings

2014 has been another great year for stocks, with gains of more than 10% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and in the S&P 500 Index. That being said, some investors have started to wonder about actual valuations of the major stocks, now that the bull market is nearing six years old. Now that the calendar is reaching the holidays and year-end, many investors have started deciding which stocks to sell and which ones they may want to buy.

So, what is an investor supposed to think about when a stock trades at over 50 times earnings? 24/7 Wall St. has identified 11 large and well-known stocks that are valued at over 50 times earnings. Many investors may just automatically assume that a stock is expensive at over 50 times earnings. It turns out that this may be very true in some cases and not so true in others.

The first of the criteria we evaluated was that each stock had to be valued at 50 times next year’s consensus earnings estimates. Most companies were generally profitable or had been profitable prior to this year, and all are expected to be profitable in 2015. Another of the criteria was that each had to have a market cap of over $5 billion, so they are well-known and generally established beyond the realm of small-cap and micro-cap stocks.

Due to having such high implied valuations, most of these are in technology of some sort — online retail, biotech and health care, software and consumer electronics — but one was a car maker and one was in apparel. Again, all of these companies should now be well-known to most investors and at least somewhat known to non-investors.

The late-2014 list of stocks valued at over 50 times earnings included large and well-known companies like Amazon, GoPro, Illumina, Netflix, Palo Alto Networks, Pharmacyclics, Rackspace, Salesforce.com, SBA Communications, Tesla Motors and Under Armour.

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When we first looked for these companies, the automatic assumption is that they would be very “expensive.” It turns out that value is often relative, and many of these companies still seem as though they have great prospects ahead. 24/7 Wall St. has added specific color on each company and outlined what each one has going for it or working against it. These have been listed alphabetically, with share performance in 2014, revenue expectations for 2015, expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2014 and 2015 (or current and following fiscal year if off-calendar years), and the market cap and growth metrics.

Amazon.com

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) does not technically have a P/E ratio for the 2014 fiscal year because it is not expected to have any earnings, but the company could be profitable if it wanted to be. Amazon’s P/E ratio for next year is 341 times expected earnings. The company has a market cap of $142 billion, and total revenues for the coming year are expected to be up 18% to $105.89 billion. At $308.30, its 52-week trading range is $284.00 to $408.06, and the consensus analyst price target is $357.16. Amazon is the worst performer of the group, with a loss of 22% year-to-date in 2014.

Jeff Bezos has been running Amazon.com almost like a charity, and he has gone on record saying that he will keep taking big chances if the payday is large enough. The company now is expected to have a loss in 2014, but that was not the case at the start of 2014. Amazon also did post operating profits in three of the past four years, before the company rekindled its expensive growth initiatives. This company could be wildly profitable, but it loses money and hurts its brick-and-mortar competitors handily. Should this company be given this high of a valuation after having been public more than 15 years?

GoPro

GoPro Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRO) has a P/E ratio of 66 for the 2014 fiscal year expected earnings and is valued at 53 times the next fiscal year’s expected earnings. The company has a market cap of $8 billion, and total revenues for the coming year are expected to be up 23% to $1.65 billion. At $66.64, its 52-week trading range is $28.65 to $98.47, and the consensus analyst price target is $82.00. GoPro has gained a whopping 180% since its initial public offering (IPO).

GoPro was obviously one of the best IPOs of 2014, and the wearable camera maker for sports and recreation enthusiasts has taken the world over by storm. Still, there have been concerns about how the company can keep growing its core market. Perhaps new recorders that are in high-demand this holiday season will be the driver ahead, but lower-priced competition is available. That answer may simply by opening up the GoPro Media Network, a crowd-sourced content destination on TV and online for watching extreme sports and other media made with GoPro.

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Illumina

Illumina Inc. (NASDAQ: ILMN) has a P/E ratio of 70 for the 2014 fiscal year expected earnings and 59 times the next fiscal year’s expected earnings. The company has a market cap of $26 billion, and total revenues for the coming year are expected to be up 22% to $2.27 billion. At $187.13, its 52-week trading range is $98.51 to $197.37, and the consensus price target is $204.87. Illumina’s gain has been over 71% in 2014.

Illumina may have a nosebleed valuation on the surface, but there is a reason — it is the de facto leader of DNA and RNA sequencing, genotyping, microarrays and more that is involved in genetic analysis. The company fended off a buyout offer in 2012 at $51 per share (after prior $44.50 per share offer) from Roche, and holders from then have to be very grateful. That old interest has almost certainly established a much higher floor for the stock, but Illumina’s share price has risen exponentially as it is the leader in the race and advancement of the $1,000 genome. If one stock can remain with “nosebleed valuations” in the biotech and health care space as we have called them elsewhere, it is Illumina. Being in the midst of accelerated sales growth and a clear market leadership position has its benefits, even if the screening process might indicate otherwise.

Netflix

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) has a P/E ratio of 97 for 2014 and a forward P/E ratio of 70 for next fiscal year’s expected earnings. The company has a market cap of $20 billion, and total revenues for the coming year are expected to be 23% to $6.77 billion. At $333.80, its 52-week trading range is $299.50 to $489.29, and the consensus price target is $416.32. Netflix shares were down about 7% so far in 2014.

Netflix has nosebleed valuations by traditional metrics, but Netflix is still growing in the United States while it is only in the first inning of its international expansion. There are routinely questions about whether Netflix should be making its own content, but obviously Reid Hastings feels that shows such as “House of Cards” and “Orange Is the New Black” are going to lock-in consumers as Netflix customers. With revenue growth of 20% and higher expected ahead, this high P/E valuation would be even far higher if the stock was now down over 30% from its earlier all-time high.

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Palo Alto Networks

Palo Alto Networks Inc. (NYSE: PANW) has a P/E ratio of 157 for the 2015 fiscal year expected earnings and is valued at 79 times the next fiscal year’s expected earnings. The company has a market cap of $9 billion, and total revenues for the coming year are expected to be up 31% to $1.11 billion. At $116.46, its 52-week trading range is $51.25 to $123.22, and the consensus analyst price target is $125.50. Palo Alto shares were up just over 100% year-to-date.

If one company is considered the current leader in data security and hacking wars, it is Palo Alto Networks. The company almost was worth $10 billion before the early December pullback, and it has said that large enterprises and customers simply remain in an under-spending mode when it comes to protecting their networks and corporate secrets. It serves companies, organizations and governments around the globe, and its Next-Generation Firewall and Threat Intelligence Cloud are currently considered unrivaled. That being said, its revenue growth of 2014 and 2015 will not generate a somewhat normalized P/E ratio of under 50 until perhaps 2017 or 2018.

Pharmacyclics

Pharmacyclics Inc. (NASDAQ: PCYC) has a P/E ratio of 153 for the 2014 fiscal year expected earnings and nearly 500 times expected 2015 expected earnings, and its stock was last up about 32% so far in 2014. The company has a market cap of $10 billion, and total revenues for the coming year are expected to be up 38% to $954 million. At $138.86, its 52-week trading range is $82.51 to $154.89, and the consensus analyst price target is $161.11.

Pharmacyclics would not find itself to be the first biotech to be valued at over 100 times earnings, but what stands out here is that revenues in 2015 are expected to be about 250% higher than they were in 2013. It is also not that common for most stocks, even in biotech, to have risen from under $10 to over $150 in about three years — Pharmacyclics did. Its main driver has been Imbruvica for mantle cell lymphoma and chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Imbruvica has four more indications under study and three more compounds in Phase 2 or Phase 1 studies.

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Rackspace Hosting

Rackspace Hosting Inc. (NYSE: RAX) has a P/E ratio of 66 for 2014 and 50 for 2015. Shares have been very volatile in 2014, but the latest reading was a stock gain of 19% since the start of 2014. The company has a market cap of $6 billion, and total revenues for the coming year are expected to be up almost 16% to $2.08 billion. At $46.77, its 52-week trading range is $26.18 to $47.97, and the consensus price target is $47.18.

Rackspace was considered down and out just a few months ago. The company initiated a strategic review plan to sell itself, and the level of buyer interest put the company in a go-it-alone strategy. The hosting giant has even gotten past bouncy earnings and a CEO departure earlier this year. The company even challenged new 52-week highs in early December when many key stocks were selling off. It is very rare to see a turnaround and investor sentiment shift of this magnitude anywhere close to this fast from a technology company. With shares still under $50 in early December, does it need to start being addressed that the stock traded at over $75 as recently as the first month of 2013?

Salesforce.com

Salesforce.com Inc. (NYSE: CRM) is valued at 105 times the current 2015 fiscal year expected earnings and 79 times next fiscal year’s expected earnings. The company has a market cap of $34 billion, and total revenues for the coming year are expected to be up 21% to $6.52 billion. At $55.05, its 52-week trading range is $48.18 to $67.00, and the consensus price target is $70.58.

Salesforce.com has grown and grown in its enterprise software offerings year after year. Its valuation almost always stays sky-high as well. Co-founding chairman and CEO Marc Benioff is considered by some to be the next Larry Ellison. Revenue growth remains amazing here as well, and the company seems to be the enterprise software player for the rest of the companies in the world that do not have multibillion dollar IT budgets — although it can serve them too, with an app or a software as a service tool for too many things to count. The only question to ask is when Salesforce.com will have a normalized earnings valuation. Until whenever that time comes, just keep in mind that the powers that be in the market just never seem to give investors a cheap entrance into Salesforce.com.

SBA Communications

SBA Communications Corp. (NASDAQ: SBAC) does not have a P/E ratio for the 2014 fiscal year expected earnings and is valued at 275 times the next fiscal year’s expected earnings. The company has a market cap of $14 billion, and total revenues for the coming year are expected to be up 10% to $1.68 billion. At $112.75, its 52-week trading range is $84.70 to $122.79, and the consensus price target is $123.94.

SBA Communications remains the most expensive of the three towers and wireless communications leaders on the surface, with less earnings power and trading at more than 9 times expected revenues. The difference here is that SBA remains a traditional corporation rather than a real estate investment trust (REIT) structure, and that makes apples-to-apples comparisons very difficult to do. The wireless communications outfit also pays no dividend, unlike its larger rivals. SBA is also likely the only player that could still be acquired as it its market cap is not quite 60% of Crown Castle and is only about one-third of the market cap of American Tower. That may keep a premium valuation a likely expectation for some time.

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Tesla Motors

Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is valued at 356 times 2014 fiscal year expected earnings, but it is valued at 74 times next fiscal year’s expected earnings. The company has a market cap of $27 billion, and total revenues for the coming year are expected to be up 64% to $6.12 billion. At $214.22, its 52-week trading range is $136.67 to $291.42, and the consensus price target is $274.79. Sure, the stock has pulled back handily from its peak of over $290, but the stock is still up over 50% from the 52-week low and was valued at under $50 as recently as the second half of 2012. Its gain so far in 2014 has been about 42%.

Tesla is the electric car maker that has almost been able to do no wrong. Even when things do come up against the company from time to time, the allure and cult following of founding CEO Elon Musk almost creates a Tony Stark of Iron Man image here. Competition is mounting from Ford, Toyota and every other car maker under the sun, but the luxury pull remains the main driver here. The question for the future is whether the Model 3 can really be sold with at $35,000 with high gross margins, and whether the Gigafactory can turn Tesla from a car maker into a battery giant as well. We will just have to see.

Under Armour

Under Armour Inc. (NYSE: UA) has a P/E ratio of 71 for the 2014 fiscal year expected earnings and 56 times the next fiscal year’s expected earnings. The company has a market cap of $14 billion, and total revenues for the coming year are expected to be up 23% to $3.76 billion. At $67.89, its 52-week trading range is $40.59 to $73.42, and the consensus analyst price target is $72.04. This sports apparel stock was up 57% so far in 2014.

Under Armour has been the underdog sports apparel player that turned into a giant. Its shares were up over 50% so far in 2014 as well, and the company seems that it succeeds in just about every single effort it undertakes. It also seems as though Under Armour has now become too large at nearly $15 billion in value to be acquired by one of the larger apparel giants. This company, at least for now, seems to “the one that got away” in the global M&A game for top brands. Sales were looking around $3 billion for this year, more than double from that of 2011. Investors who want in on Under Armour have almost never gotten a chance to get in with “cheap” valuations, and the company still is under no pressure at all to start paying a dividend.

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