4 S&P 500 Stocks That Could Be Up 50% by Year End

November 4, 2015 by Trey Thoelcke

This year hasn’t been a great one for the S&P 500. Year to date, the index is up only 2.5%. But there are still many S&P 500 stocks that have had a great 2015. For some major stocks it has even been their best year. The following four S&P companies have a good shot at closing 2015 50% higher than their 52-week lows.

Aetna

Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) has had its best 12 months in its history. The stock is up 38% from its 52-week low. This is despite falling 17% since late June. Revenues have been growing at an average 26% a year since 2012, and its bottom line growth is 10.5%. Revenue growth really took off in 2013 and 2014, with health care premiums up over 80% since 2012. Earnings have not moved much by comparison, but they are still growing. Beyond that, total debt has fallen 18% for Aetna since the end of last year, an extra plus.

The story behind Aetna’s rise is of course Obamacare. Much like the military-industrial complex feeds revenues into weapons companies, the medical-industrial complex feeds insurance companies via Medicare and Medicaid. By requiring the purchase of health insurance, it is not too hard to see why the revenues of major health insurance companies like Aetna are higher than they were before Obamacare came into full effect. The larger correction for the broader market seems to be over, and Aetna could easily surpass the 50% mark before the end of the year.

ALSO READ: 4 Stocks That Could Be Cut in Half by Year End

Nike

Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) hasn’t only had a good 2015. It has had one of the biggest bull markets ever of any mega-cap industrial. Up more than 500% since the S&P bottomed in March 2009, it just keeps growing and growing. Earnings are up 120% since March 2009. Nike was one of the best performing Dow 30 stocks during the August collapse, and 2015 has so far been its best year ever. Its margins have stayed steady throughout its rise, which means that Nike is probably as efficient as it’s ever going to get. Top line growth and bottom line growth are nearly one to one. As long as the top line growth is there, the stock will keep going up.

That’s why Nike could be up over 50% this year, if its late December earnings statement meets or beats expectations. The danger is, if Nike’s top line stops growing, its stock can fall as fast as it has risen.
Avago

Avago Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ: AVGO) had already risen 80% in 2015, but then fell 40% along with the money growth slowdown that was responsible for the August crash. It is now 46% higher than its 52-week low. Avago is a semiconductor company that took a gamble on a massive expansion project in 2014, including some big spending on research and development that ate into its earnings considerably, but seems to have paid off. The company has made over 250% more money in the past three quarters than it did in all of 2014. Earnings will be reported early December, and a good print could take it over the 50% mark.

The price movements for Avago in 2015 suggest that this is a momentum stock that is greatly influenced by the monetary environment. It did horribly during the money supply slowdown that began in April and ended in September. Investors looking to catch more gains with Avago should monitor money supply growth closely. As long as it is growing, which it is now, Avago will move higher. As soon as it slows down, that will be the time to take profits on this one.

ALSO READ: 3 Tech Stocks to Own for a Possible Year-End Rally

Equifax

Equifax Inc. (NYSE: EFX) is up 42% from its lows this year, but with earnings statements not due until 2016, it will only be momentum that brings this data service company up to the 50% mark. That is very possible, and even likely, considering that Equifax shares have historically had very good fourth quarters. A look at a five-year chart of this stock shows that it is also very sensitive to monetary fluctuations. It consistently falls usually somewhere between April and September and rises through the end of the year, which is consistent with seasonal monetary fluctuations. Chances are that this pattern will continue as 2015 comes to a close, making it likely that Equifax will be 50% higher or more by the end of December.

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