Investing

The 5 Worst Performing Dow Stocks of 2015

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2015 has come to an end. That means it is time to look forward. One of the more common strategies that investors with long-term outlooks use is to evaluate the worst performing stocks of companies that have long histories and that have businesses that will be around for the years and generations ahead. This can be dangerous, but 24/7 Wall St. wanted to look into the worst performing Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks of 2015.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had a performance of negative 2.23% in 2015. Sadly, there were seven Dow stocks that were down worse than 10% in 2015, going into the close of the year. We are also entering a strange period ahead, when the Federal Reserve finally is hiking interest rates, but at a time when the economic readings have been worsening. The woes of a strong dollar and a weakening picture in the key growth markets with tanking energy and commodity prices has only hurt even more.

In an effort to evaluate these companies, we have provided the big picture here. Currency has played a role, but some is just a series of misfortunes and missteps. Valuation metrics and the trading histories have been included in the review of each company.

These were the five worst performing Dow stocks of 2015.

Wal-Mart
> 2015 performance: −26.6%

The Dow’s biggest loser in 2015 was Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT). This was very unexpected, but the disappointing sales trends of first part of the year met higher operating costs and higher wages toward the end of the year. That made for bad 2016 guidance, and management seems like it will have to learn better communications skills. Does it help if Wal-Mart now screens out as a cheaper stock than it has in many years? And revenues are now within striking distance of $500 billion per year.

Shares of Wal-Mart closed out 2015 at $61.30. Over the course of the year it fell by nearly 27%, on a dividend adjusted basis. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $63.63 and a 52-week trading range of $56.30 to $90.97. Its market cap is roughly $196 billion, and its dividend yield of 3.2%. Compared to 2016 expected earnings, shares trade at a multiple of roughly 15.


American Express
> 2015 performance: −24.2%

American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) may have Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway as the largest shareholder, but the good news stops there. Having the highest income client base hasn’t helped the company at this time, and losing Costco just added insult to injury. The dividend is underwhelming as well, and actually turning itself around may be hard considering that American Express already has exited or paired down on so many operations. Is the stock cheap, or is it a value trap?

Shares of American Express shares closed Thursday at $69.55. Over the year, it fell by 24.2%, on a dividend adjusted basis. It has a market cap of roughly $69 billion and a dividend yield of 1.7%. The consensus analyst price target is $80.92, and the 52-week trading range of $67.57 to $93.94. Compared to 2016 expected earnings, shares trade at a multiple of nearly 13.

Caterpillar
> 2015 performance: −23%

Being a great company and an old iconic brand won’t help Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) when the commodities and mining markets are in the toilet, and as China, Brazil and other growth markets have little growth. Those monthly sales figures have looked so bad in 2015 that a global turnaround just seems quite a ways off. Caterpillar was once projected to rise to well over $100 per share, but those days are now a distant memory. Earnings per share in 2016 are expected to be down by almost half from 2014 — and what if things get even worse? Caterpillar also suffers from the strong dollar, on top of everything else.

Shares of Caterpillar landed at $67.96 to end 2015. Year to date, the stock fell by 23%, on a dividend adjusted basis. The market cap of roughly $40 billion, and the dividend yield is 4.5%. The stock has a consensus price target of $68.19 and a 52-week range of $62.99 to $92.37. Compared to 2016 expected earnings, shares trade at a multiple near 19.

Chevron
> 2015 performance: −16.2%

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) was once the king of dividends for big oil, but the softness in the oil patch has made people forget about the yield of 4.75%, when they consider that earnings are expected to be down about 70% in 2015 on close to a 40% drop in revenues. Being integrated helps here, but Chevron bore a more negative year than rival Exxon Mobil. If Chevron investors want a better year ahead, they will have to pray for higher oil prices. Chevron’s dividend is now higher than its expected 2015 and 2016 earnings per share, a troubling sign.

Chevron ended the year at $89.96 per share. Over the course of the year, the stock fell by 16.2%, on a dividend adjusted basis. The consensus price target is $99.55, versus a 52-week trading range of $69.58 to $113.00. The market cap is roughly $169 billion, and the dividend yield is 4.7%. Compared to 2016 expected earnings, shares trade at a multiple of 26.


United Tech
> 2015 performance: −14.5%

The worst performing of the three Dow conglomerates was United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX). A portfolio change might to blame here, or it could be that even after a drop of this magnitude its shares just are not screening out to be all that cheap at more than 15 times expected earnings — and that is on a drop in earnings to boot. Hopefully the company guides its numbers lower to make the analysts investors happy, if they can beat those lower numbers next year.

Shares closed out 2015 at $96.07. Over the past year, United Technologies fell by 14.5%, on a dividend adjusted basis. The consensus price target is $108.47. The 52-week trading range is $85.50 to $124.45. The company has a market cap of roughly $85 billion and a dividend yield of 2.7%. Compared to 2016 expected earnings, shares trade at a multiple of just below 15.

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