Does a Weak 10-Year Treasury Auction Mean the Bond Rally Is Finally Toast?

July 12, 2016 by Jon C. Ogg

Treasury yields may still be too low for most sensible U.S. investors to chase today, but the yields on long-term rates have started ticking back up from the post-Brexit lows. Maybe a record stock market has at least a little allure now when you compare the dividends versus bonds. The 30-year Treasury long bond had a yield of 2.25% and the 10-year note yielded 1.52% on July 12. Only 7 of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks had a yield of less than the 30-year Treasury.

This and slightly better (or less bad) economic reports should set the tone for a fight in Treasury auctions ahead. Tuesday’s 10-year Treasury auction came with a yield of 1.516%. That was 1.5 basis points higher than the 1.501% for the 10-year Treasury in the same morning, ahead of the auction results.

A driving force for a weak auction was that the bid-to-cover ratio was only 2.30 — versus over 2.60 as an average so far in the last year. This means that $2.30 bids were submitted for ever $1.00 accepted by the Treasury. All in all, some $46,572,996,500 was tendered and the Treasury accepted $20,000,001,500 in the auction.

Another issue was that dealers took in almost 38% of the sale. This dealer rate has been running about 25% of late. In short, primary dealers and financial institutions were over one-third of the whole auction.

Tuesday’s median yield was 1.470% and the low yield was 1.395%. This was for the 1.625% coupon with a nine-year and nine-month maturity.

What investors need to keep in mind here is that a 1.516% yield means that the end result, before federal tax, is $15.16 per year received by the note-holders for every $1,000 face value.

Another consideration is that the 10-year Treasury yield was 1.74% prior to the Brexit vote. It immediately fell to 1.58% the following day and 1.46% the day after that. Ultimately, 10-year yields hit a low of just under 1.35% before this last rise in rates.

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