Merrill Lynch Makes Huge Changes by Removing 2 Blue Chips From US 1 List

November 29, 2016 by Lee Jackson

With just over a month left in 2016, many of the top companies we follow on Wall Street are making some changes to the lists of their high conviction stock picks for clients. With the market continuing to trade to near all-time highs, it makes sense to examine the lists and make some changes as the rest of the year could have additional volatility. While the political cycle should quiet down with the election over, rising interest rates could prove to be very volatile component.

In a recent research note, the analysts at Merrill Lynch make a big move by removing two blue chips from the firm’s well-respected US 1 list of stocks to buy. The portfolio managers removed a top pharmaceutical company, and a big-time tech stock also comes out. We also review the three top-yielding dividend stocks remaining in the US 1 list.

Eli Lilly

This top pharmaceutical was removed from the US 1 list but remains rated Buy at the firm. Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE: LLY) is a global health care company with numerous core products in a number of primary-care pharmaceutical markets. The company generates revenues from its pharmaceutical product and animal health segments.

The product portfolio includes Zyprexa (for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder), Gemzar (pancreatic cancer), Evista (osteoporosis), Cymbalta (depression), Cialis (erectile dysfunction), Strattera (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder), Erbitux (cancer) and Alimta (chemotherapy). Eli Lilly also has a strong presence in the diabetes market.

The company posted third-quarter sales and earnings well below Wall Street’s expectations, prompting shares to plummet to a four-month low before rebounding. The stock is down almost 10% on the year and offering investors an outstanding entry point.

Last week the company announced a disappointing Phase 3 trial for the firm’s Alzheimer’s drug solanezumab. The drug missed the primary and secondary endpoints. While the analysts are forced to remove potential earnings from their model due to the failure, they remain positive on the stock based on “Underappreciated growth, driven by the diabetes base business, baricitinib and abemaciclib.”

Shareholders receive a 3.05% dividend. Merrill Lynch lowered its price objective for the stock to $90 from $105, and the Wall Street consensus price target is $97.05. Shares closed Monday at $67.20.

Qualcomm

This top technology stock has done very well this year, but it was removed from the US 1 list. Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) is a world leader in 3G, 4G and next-generation wireless technologies. The company includes the licensing business, QTL, and the vast majority of its patent portfolio. Its subsidiary Qualcomm Technologies operates substantially all of Qualcomm’s engineering, research and development functions, as well as substantially all of its products and services businesses, including its semiconductor business, QCT.

Qualcomm reported third-quarter revenue and earnings that beat Wall Street estimates. Fourth-quarter guidance was also better than expected. In China, new semiconductor products are gaining share and management is making better progress with royalty collections.

The analysts are bullish on the company’s acquisition of NXP Semiconductors, which Qualcomm is buying in an all-cash deal at $110 per share. The deal is expected to close at the end of 2017 and should be immediately accretive to earnings. The merger brings together complementary products for mobile, automotive, Internet of Things and networking applications.

While no specific reason for the change was cited, we get the sense that the removal from the list is a valuation move, as well as the fact that arbitrage accounts could keep pressure on the stock until the NXP deal is completed. The stock remains rated Buy.

Qualcomm shareholders receive a 3.16% dividend. Merrill Lynch has a $76 price target. The consensus target is $73.62. The shares closed Monday at $67.10.

AT&T

This company has had an incredible run this year but is off over 10% in less than six weeks. AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) is the world’s largest provider of pay TV, with TV customers in the United States and 11 Latin American countries. In the United States, the AT&T wireless network has the nation’s self-described strongest 4G LTE signal and most reliable 4G LTE. The company also helps businesses worldwide serve their customers better with mobility and highly secure cloud solutions.

With its shares trading at a very cheap 14.3 times estimated 2016 earnings, the company continues to expand its user base, and strong product introductions from smartphone vendors have not only driven traffic but increased device financing plans.

AT&T is the top dividend-paying stock in the US 1 portfolio and has several major catalysts that likely will drive strong network traffic demand: DirecTV Now and Mobile, “Data-Free TV” for DirecTV/U-Verse subscribers and increasing penetration of unlimited data plans. Many on Wall Street believe that the company is well-positioned to address ongoing traffic requirements, with additional LTE capacity available and the ability to leverage small cell deployments.

Other top Wall Street analysts have cited the company’s positive commentary on free cash flow and improving video/broadband trends later this year, with single truck-roll and new converged offerings expected to be coming next month.

Investors receive a 4.96% dividend. The $46 Merrill Lynch price target compares with the consensus price objective of $40.76. Shares closed Monday at $39.54.

Coca-Cola European Partners

The former Coca-Cola Enterprises reported solid earnings, and merger rumors are starting to fly again as well. Coca-Cola European Partners PLC (NYSE: CCE) is the leading Western European marketer, producer and distributor of nonalcoholic ready-to-drink beverages and one of the world’s largest independent Coca-Cola bottlers.

The company is the sole licensed bottler for products of Coca-Cola in Belgium, continental France, Great Britain, Luxembourg, Monaco, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. It operates with a local focus and has 17 manufacturing sites across Europe, where the company manufactures nearly 90% of its products in the markets in which they are consumed.

The company reported third-quarter earnings that were mostly in line with the analysts’ expectations. The company also maintained 2016 guidance, and sales remain very solid overall. The merger this year with Coca-Cola Erfrischungsgetränke in Germany and Coca-Cola Iberian Partners, which serves Spain and Portugal, was a big catalyst. Based on revenues, the company is the world’s largest independent Coca-Cola bottler. It serves over 300 million consumers across Western Europe.

Investors receive a 2.27% dividend. The $44.50 Merrill Lynch price target is lower than the consensus target of $44.83. The shares closed on Monday at $33.47.

MetLife

This top insurance company is on the US 1 list and pays very solid dividends. MetLife Inc. (NYSE: MET) is one of the largest U.S. life insurers and has become a significant global player. The company provides life insurance, annuities, employee benefits and asset management products in the United States, Japan, Latin America, Asia, Europe and the Middle East.

Merrill Lynch sees one-third of earnings from international, 30% from Group Benefits and Retirement, 20% from the to-be-split Brighthouse entity, and 15% in runoff from legacy retail life and annuity products.

MetLife investors receive a 2.5% dividend. The Merrill Lynch price target is set at $61. The consensus target is $53.38. The shares closed on Monday at $54.38.

While the Merrill Lynch US 1 list has slightly underperformed the S&P 500 year to date, it has outperformed since inception by a large margin. The stocks are among the highest conviction picks at Merrill Lynch and make good addition to any growth portfolio.

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