6 Serious Contrarian Stock Picks for Unexpected Upside

April 8, 2017 by Lee Jackson

With the market still trading close to all-time highs, stocks are getting to the point where they are so expensive that investors looking to buy some of the top companies are experiencing some sticker shock. One of the ways to stay in the game is to think outside the box and go for some of the more contrarian ideas Wall Street has to offer. While they sometimes take longer to play out, they can bring some big gains.

In a recent report, Credit Suisse definitely goes outside the box to show clients some ideas in which its analysts are positioned much differently than their Wall Street peers. The report said this:

We screened our current US coverage universe to identify companies where our analysts’ views diverged from that of the Street, focusing on rating, earnings projections as well as target price. To further strengthen the list of stocks, we worked closely with the research analysts to select stories in which our conviction level is high.

Here are the six contrarian stocks rated Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Hershey

This consumer staple has one of the most recognized brands in the world. Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) is the number one confectionery company in the United States, with sales over $5.0 billion. Key brands include Hershey’s, Reese’s, Kit Kat, Twizzlers and Ice Breakers. The company also produces cookies, snack bars, baking ingredients, toppings and beverages.

Credit Suisse cites the low cocoa prices, which have recently collapsed, and more importantly that the company currently trades at only a 7% premium to it peers, and that’s versus a historical premium of 18%. While the firm is inline with consensus for this year, the analyst thinks the company’s 2018 revenue could come in higher than the Wall Street consensus.

Investors receive 2.25% dividend. The Credit Suisse price target for the stock is $121. The Wall Street consensus target is $112. The shares closed last Friday at $109.52.

Nationstar Mortgage

This stock is down over 20% from February highs and is offering a very enticing entry point. Nationstar Mortgage Holdings Inc. (NYSE: NSM) provides servicing, origination and transaction based services primarily to single-family residences in the United States.

The company operates in three segments. The Servicing segment offers conventional residential mortgage loans and home equity conversion loans, while the Originations segment operates an integrated residential loan origination platform that is primarily focused on customer retention. The Xome segment provides technology and data-enhanced solutions to home buyers, home sellers, real estate professionals and companies.

Credit Suisse cites the refinancing of debt as a key catalyst as the company could save $20 million per year in interest expense. The firm is above the consensus estimates for 2017 and 2018 and feels there is $0.15 per share to be realized from the debt refinancing that is not baked into the current numbers.

Credit Suisse has a $22 price target, but the consensus target is $23.14. The shares closed last Friday at $15.85.

ONEOK

The volatile price of natural gas over the past year has weighed on this top energy company. ONEOK Inc.’s (NYSE: OKE) primary asset is its general partnership and limited partnership interests in ONEOK Partners L.P. (NYSE: OKS). OKS is a master limited partnership (MLP) primarily engaged in natural gas gathering and processing and natural gas liquid gathering and marketing.

Credit Suisse sees the stock having the potential for 25% total return, and the point to an increase in volumes across the company’s different segments. The report noted this:

Key driver of strong volumes is demand from three world class stream crackers scheduled to come online in the second half of 2017 with more in 2018. The Ethane uplift to contribute ~$200 million the next few years with ~$40-$60 million in 2017. Per fourth quarter earnings release there were 10-12 rigs on dedicated acreage in the SCOOP/STACK region with estimates it could reach 17-20 by the end of the year which should drive further volume growth in the region.

ONEOK investors receive a 4.32% dividend. The $64 Credit Suisse price objective is well above the consensus target of $55.92. The stock closed last Friday at $56.19.

Transocean

This company may be the ultimate contrarian play as the offshore drillers are horribly out of favor. Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) is the largest offshore drilling company in the world, with offshore rigs servicing the high-specification jackup, midwater, deepwater and ultra-deepwater segments of the market.

Credit Suisse cites the company’s global footprint as one of the big positives, and said this:

Over the past year, Transocean has done a good job in shoring up its balance sheet following its two secured financing deals in second half of 2016. We expect the company to look to acquire rigs likely in the harsh environment space after positioning itself as a pure play floater company.

Credit Suisse has a whopping $18 price objective. The consensus target is $14.08, and shares closed on Friday at $12.43.

Wesco

This may be a very solid play for investors anticipating the Trump infrastructure build-out. Wesco International Inc. (NYSE: WCC) is a distributor of products and provider of supply chain management and logistics services used in industrial, construction, utility and commercial, institutional and government markets.

The company is a provider of electrical, industrial and communications maintenance, repair and operating and original equipment manufacturers products, construction materials and supply chain management and logistics services.

While Credit Suisse is pretty much in line with other Wall Street estimates, it thinks other firms are missing the impact of larger capital projects, which represent 50% of revenues, with the two biggest being Industrial and Canada. The report noted:

We see upside to Wesco’s 2017 guidance, specifically if Industrial (higher margin) and Construction get a second half boost – The company has not assumed any upside from inflation/pricing and has a contingency in its guide. We see gross margins resuming growth in 2018 and even with SG&A modeled higher, the company can drive close to its 50% pull through target.

The Credit Suisse has set its price objective at $83. The consensus target is $74.23, and shares ended the week at $69.80.

WisdomTree Investments

This real up-and-comer in the exchange traded fund business has many specialized offerings. Wisdom Tree Investment Inc. (NASDAQ: WETF) continues to benefit from the movement toward ETFs. This is especially true with the specialized currency hedged products, with the potential for significant uptake in interest rate hedged products.

Wisdom Tree is run by Jonathan Steinberg, the son of famous Wall Street financier Saul Steinberg. He bought 550,000 shares of the stock in 2016. Credit Suisse notes that the company is the largest independent ETF manager with scale, and for years this company has been mentioned as a potential takeover candidate.

According to the report:

Over the next 12-18 months, we continue to rate Wisdom Tree an Outperform as we believe the firm will generate strong net flows in 2017, and if you combine that with positive marks, the firm will be able to expand its operating margin again given its very high incremental margins (75%+).

The Credit Suisse price target is $16, and the consensus target is $9.94. The stock closed Friday at $9.05.

Six contrarian ideas for growth investors, with some of them being more contrarian than others. One thing to remember is that these kinds of ideas sometimes requires patience in the 12 to 18 month range. With that in mind, the upside can be outstanding.

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