Jefferies Has 4 Top Value Stocks to Buy With Big Implied Upside

May 16, 2019 by 247lee

During the 10-year run of this bull market, one thing has been painfully obvious to long-time investors: value stocks, and indeed the entire sector, have woefully underperformed growth. Value stocks are those that tend to trade at a lower price relative to their fundamentals (including dividends, earnings and sales). Given the market uncertainty, most of which is directly tied to the current trade issues, it makes sense to look at value and perhaps shift some capital there.

Each week Jefferies presents some of the top value ideas that the firm has, and this week’s group is chock full of well-known companies that for a variety of reasons have landed in value territory. All make sense for accounts looking to stay in equities but nervous about the current market turmoil.

Boeing

This stock has had plenty of negative press recently due to the 737-MAX issues. Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) is the world’s leading aerospace company and the largest manufacturer of commercial jetliners and military aircraft combined. The different segments in the company are Commercial Airplanes; Boeing Defense; Space & Security; and Boeing Capital. The latter provides financial solutions facilitating sale and delivery of Boeing commercial and military aircraft, satellites and launch vehicles.

Last year, Boeing and Embraer signed a nonbinding memorandum of understanding to create a new strategic partnership for commercial aviation. The new joint venture is valued at $4.75 billion, which values Boeing’s 80% share at $3.8 billion.

The 737-Max remains grounded, and sales are as well, but Jefferies is confident in the long-term Boeing story. They noted this:

We met the CFO last week. Following our discussions, we are confident that the long-term free cash flow story remains largely unchanged. That said, we removed some upside from our bull case scenario as it relates to aircraft pricing and multiple re-rating. On May 23rd, the FAA has invited 57 global regulators to review the recent upgrades to MAX’s flight control system. The outcome should eventually lead to the FAA removing the grounding. Management reiterated that the resumption of deliveries is a matter of “when” rather than “if”

Boeing shareholders receive a 2.38% dividend. The Jefferies price objective for the shares is $448, and the Wall Street consensus target is $422. The stock closed Wednesday at $345.64 per share.

Diamondback Energy

This is a top Permian Basin play for more aggressive accounts. Diamondback Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: FANG) is an independent oil and natural gas company headquartered in Midland, Texas, and focused on the acquisition, development, exploration and exploitation of unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas.

Diamondback’s activities are primarily focused on the horizontal exploitation of multiple intervals within the Wolfcamp, Spraberry, Clearfork and Cline formations.

Wall Street analysts have noted in the past the company’s top-tier asset base, solid accretive additions and financial discipline, which they think allows for not only continued solid cash flow but could put the company in play as a takeover target. Diamondback continues to drill some of the most economical wells in the United States as efficiencies improve, costs decrease and activity remains in the better regions.

Jefferies noted this after the company posted earnings last week:

EBITDA missed on weak price realizations, but pricing should improve going forward. Capex for the quarter was 15% below expectations, a positive and the board approved a $2 billion buyback which is expected to be completed by the end of 2020, and equates to ~12% of shares outstanding. The buyback suggests management sees a better opportunity in its own stock than in mergers and acquisitions. Shares trade at less than 5x Enterprise Value to EBITDA on 2020 estimates.

Jefferies has a $168 price target, while the consensus target is lower at $154.15. The shares closed at $109.06 on Wednesday.

KeyCorp

This top midcap bank makes good sense for the rest of 2019. KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) operates as the bank holding company for KeyBank National Association, which provides deposit, lending, cash management and investment services to individuals, small and medium-sized businesses.

The company also provides a broad range of sophisticated corporate and investment banking products, such as merger and acquisition advice, public and private debt and equity, syndications and derivatives to middle market companies in selected industries throughout the United States under the KeyBanc Capital Markets banner.

The top managers are attracted to the larger regional banks, as valuations look very reasonable and cost-saving plans are helping to make forward estimates look very achievable. With overall credit remaining solid, earnings and loan deposit and fee growth all are positive metrics for the bank.

Jefferies has stayed positive on the shares:

We recently hosted meetings with management and continue to see a path for shares to rerate toward peers. While soft first quarter revenue weighed on sentiment and shares, we note that many of the issues should reverse, and we highlight that mgmt. reiterated fiscal 2019 guidance. Also, actions planned to get $200 million of costs out will be completed by the end of second quarter and management expects the cash efficiency ratio will get pushed into the 54-56% range in the second half of 2019.

KeyCorp investors receive a 4.10% dividend. The $20 Jefferies target price compares with the $19.14 consensus target. The shares closed most recently at $16.57.

Raytheon

This company has a diversified mix of business and remains a defense favorite at Jefferies. Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN) is an industry leader in defense, government electronics, space, information technology and technical services. The company operates in four principal business segments: Integrated Defense Systems, Intelligence, Information and Services, Missile Systems, and Space and Airborne Systems.

Top Wall Street analysts feel that the company could be one of the biggest winners as the global threat environment has been heightened substantially this year, and with 31% of total sales from international, the prospects remain very positive. Many cite the Patriot Missile deal signed with Poland as a good example, which could propel 2018 and beyond earnings.

With the huge forward earnings potential, Jefferies remains positive and said this in its report:

We met with the Chairman and CEO recently. We highlight that Raytheon’s pipeline totals $76 billion over 20 years and includes key programs such as Patriot, NASMS and THAAD. This could translate into $3.8 billion of incremental revenues per year or 13 points to growth, driving a sustainable revenue pipeline, which we think may be overlooked.

Shareholders receive a 2.13% dividend. Jefferies has set a $216 price objective. The consensus target is $208.24, and shares were last seen at $177.28.

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When top growth companies become value plays, there is often solid upside potential, and all four of these stocks are offering investors some of the best entry levels in years. With the potential for the market to remain volatile as the trade issues continue, it makes sense to shift some portfolio capital to the value arena.