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Earnings Previews: Devon Energy, Diamondback Energy, Mosaic, Williams

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After markets closed on Thursday, Amazon missed analysts’ consensus estimates for both profit and revenue. The company also noted that incremental costs will rise another $4 billion in the current quarter, on top of a $6 billion increase in the first quarter. Shares traded down about 9% in Friday’s premarket session.

Apple beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Supply chain issues are expected to nick $4 billion to $8 billion off current-quarter sales, but the company did not provide specific guidance. The March quarter was Apple’s best ever for iPhone and Services revenue. The stock traded down about 2.6% Friday morning.

Robinhood missed analysts’ estimates on both the top and bottom lines, and shares traded down about 11% in Friday’s premarket. Monthly active users declined and cryptocurrency trading was down substantially.

Intel beat both top-line and bottom-line estimates, but shares traded more than 3% lower Friday morning.

Roku posted positive surprises on both per-share losses and revenues. Second-quarter guidance was below consensus estimates, but the company reaffirmed full-year guidance. Shares traded about 4.8% higher in Friday’s premarket.

U.S. Steel beat the consensus estimate for earnings per share (EPS) but missed on revenue. The company expects the current quarter to be its best ever, with better earnings, higher free cash flow and increased shareholder returns. Shares traded up 3.3% in the premarket.

Before Friday’s opening bell, Chevron reported that it missed analysts’ consensus estimates for both the top and bottom lines. U.S. crude oil production rose 10% year over year in the first quarter, and worldwide production reached just over 3 million barrels of crude daily. The stock traded down about 1.6%.

Exxon Mobil also missed the consensus EPS estimate but revenue soared by 53% year over year. The company increased its stock buyback program to a new total of $30 billion through 2023. Shares traded down about 1%.

Phillips 66 shares traded up about 1% after the country’s largest refiner beat EPS estimates and said it had recommenced its share buyback program on March 31.

Weyerhaeuser beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines. The company’s outlook was mixed, with its timber harvesting division expected to be significantly lower in the second quarter while the products division is expected to generate higher year-over-year revenue. Shares traded up about 1.6%.


The week ahead actually begins Saturday, with Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting in Omaha. Our preview for the start of the week includes Berkshire, Enterprise Products and ON Semiconductor.

Next week features reports from a number of independent oil and gas production companies; commodities producers, including gold miners; and other energy companies.
Here is a look at four companies set to report March-quarter results after markets close Monday.

Devon Energy

Devon Energy Inc. (NYSE: DVN) is the country’s third-largest independent producer of oil and natural gas. The company’s stock has added about 188% to its share price over the past 12 months, thanks largely to a jump in crude oil prices that began in late September. Devon, and virtually every other producer, got a boost Thursday following Germany’s announcement that it would not oppose a ban on importing Russian oil. If the embargo is enacted, Russian crude that now makes a short trip by tanker to European ports most likely will be sent to Asia at a much higher cost.

Analysts are unsurprisingly bullish on the stock, with 22 of 30 giving the shares a Buy or Strong Buy rating. Another seven have Hold ratings. At a recent price of around $59.90 a share, the upside potential based on a median price target of $73 is 21.9%. At the high target of $91, the upside potential is 51.9%.

Consensus estimates call for first-quarter revenue of $3.57 billion, which would be down 16.5% sequentially but up by 103% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $1.76, up 26.4% sequentially and 290% higher year over year. For the full 2022 fiscal year, Devon is forecast to post EPS of $8.05, up 128%, on revenue of $14.81 billion, up 21.3%.

Devon’s stock trades at 7.4 times expected 2022 EPS, 7.8 times estimated 2023 earnings of $7.66 and 9.1 times estimated 2024 earnings of $6.60 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $23.02 to $65.45. Devon pays an annual dividend of $4.00 (yield of 6.68%). Total shareholder return for the past year was 165.9%.

Diamondback Energy

Independent oil and gas producer Diamondback Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: FANG) has seen its share price rise by more than 66% in the past 12 months, mostly thanks to rising crude oil prices. That increase is about 4 percentage points above the industry average.

Last week, Fitch Ratings affirmed its BBB investment-grade debt rating, along with a Stable outlook. The company is being whipsawed to some degree between big shareholders seeking to advance green energy policy and the state of Texas, which has passed a law that would mandate that state funds not be invested in those same companies.

Analysts are bullish on Diamondback, with 27 of 32 brokerages having a Buy or Strong Buy rating on the shares. The other five rate the stock at Hold. At a share price of around $129.50, the upside potential based on a median price target of $171 is 32%. At the high price target of $233, the upside potential is nearly 80%.

First-quarter revenue is forecast at $1.96 billion, down 3% sequentially and 66% higher year over year. Adjusted EPS are expected to come in at $4.68, up 28.8% sequentially and 103% year over year. For full fiscal 2022, analysts currently expect Diamondback to post EPS of $23.39, up 107.6%, on revenue of $8.71 billion, up 28.1%.

The stock trades at 5.5 times expected 2022 EPS, 5.9 times estimated 2023 earnings of $21.84 and 6.5 times estimated 2024 earnings of $19.85 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $65.93 to $147.99. Diamondback pays an annual dividend of $2.40 (yield of 1.9%).

Mosaic

Fertilizer maker Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) has seen its share price increase by more than 85% over the past 12 months, including a decline of more than 16% since posting a 52-week high last week. The stock has far outperformed others in the chemical industry, which has posted one-year growth of just 1.2%.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has contributed significantly to the soaring share price, on worries of supply disruptions in commodities generally. The company already has warned that sales of some products will be around the low end of guidance ranges. Momentum investing in the stock apparently has peaked.

Of 21 brokerages covering the stock, 10 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating on the shares, and another 10 have a Hold rating. At a share price of around $65.30, the upside potential based on a median price target of $70 is 7.2%. At the high price target of $90, the upside potential is 37.8%.

First-quarter revenue is forecast to total $4.05 billion, up 4.1% sequentially and 76.1% year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $2.42, down almost 24% sequentially but 325% higher year over year. For fiscal 2022, EPS are forecast at $12.13, up 140.7%, on sales of $19.4 billion, up 57%.

Mosaic stock trades at 5.4 times expected 2022 EPS, 7.2 times estimated 2023 earnings of $9.10 and 11.0 times estimated 2024 earnings of $5.94 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $28.26 to $79.58. The company pays an annual dividend of $0.45 (yield of 0.71%). Total shareholder return for the past year was 82.2%.

Williams

Oil and gas pipeline operator Williams Companies Inc. (NYSE: WMB) has seen its share price add more than 54% over the past 12 months. The company’s Transco system that delivers natural gas from the Gulf Coast region to customers on the Eastern Seaboard is the nation’s largest-volume natural gas system. Williams transports about 30% of U.S. natural gas and is expanding its capacity to supply gas to liquefied natural gas (LNG) producers and power plants in the eastern United States.

Analysts are bullish on the stock, with 17 of 23 having a Buy or Strong Buy rating. Another five rate the shares at Hold. At a price of around $34.80 a share, the stock trades essentially at its median price target of $35. At the high price target of $42, the upside potential is 20.7%.


Analysts expect the company to report first-quarter revenue of $2.41 billion, down 25.9% sequentially and 7.7% lower year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.34, down 11.7% sequentially and down a penny year over year. Current estimates for fiscal 2022 call for EPS of $1.41, up 3.4%, on sales of $10.49 billion, down 1.4%.

Williams stock trades at 24.8 times expected 2022 EPS, 23.0 times estimated 2023 earnings of $1.51 and 22.1 times estimated 2024 earnings of $1.58 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $23.53 to $336.37. The company pays an annual dividend of $1.70 (yield of 4.95%). Total shareholder return for the past year was 51.3%.

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