Powering the Moon
Interim NASA administrator Sean Duffy announced that President Trump wants to place a small modular reactor (SMR) on the moon by 2030. The plan aims to secure U.S. dominance in the lunar economy and counter China and Russia’s joint plans for a similar reactor by the mid-2030s.
The 100-kilowatt reactor, designed to power a lunar base, is part of NASA’s Artemis program to establish a long-term human presence on the moon. The initiative requires NASA to solicit industry proposals within 60 days and designate a project leader within 30 days, accelerating prior plans for a 40-kilowatt reactor.
This move is driven by geopolitical concerns, as the first nation to deploy a reactor could claim a “keep-out zone,” potentially limiting U.S. access. However, steep NASA budget cuts and technical challenges, including the unproven nature of lunar nuclear deployment, raise doubts about the timeline’s feasibility.
Energizing Nuclear Stocks
The announcement has sparked significant interest in nuclear energy companies developing SMRs, particularly Oklo (NYSE:OKLO), NuScale Power (NYSE:SMR), and Nano Nuclear Energy (NASDAQ:NNE), which saw their stocks go into orbit.
OKLO surged over 10% yesterday, reaching $84.09 per share, building on a 290% gain year-to-date and over 900% in the past 12 months. The rise was fueled by its Aurora microreactor designed for remote applications like lunar bases.
NuScale, with its Nuclear Regulatory Commission-approved 77-megawatt SMRs, has seen its stock rise more than 395% in the past year, driven by its progress toward 2030 deployment. SMR stock rose 4% yesterday.
Nano Nuclear, focusing on microreactors producing 1 to 20 megawatts, has enjoyed a near-285% increase over the same period, with its technology touted for space applications. NNE shares rose 6.7% yesterday.
These gains reflect investor optimism about the companies’ potential to secure NASA contracts and lead in the burgeoning lunar economy, leveraging their expertise in compact, scalable nuclear solutions.
Transformative Lunar Potential
The proposal represents a transformative opportunity for these firms. Oklo’s microreactors, which use recycled fuel and operate autonomously for a decade, align well with lunar needs for sustainable power during the moon’s two-week-long nights. NuScale’s modular designs, approved for terrestrial use, could be adapted for lunar bases, offering scalability for larger power demands. Nano Nuclear’s microreactors, ideal for small-scale applications, position it as a contender for niche lunar projects.
A successful NASA contract could validate their technologies, drive revenue, and enhance their terrestrial market prospects, particularly for data centers and remote military bases.
Risks of Lunar Nuclear Deployment
However, deploying an SMR on the moon carries significant risks. There are a number of potential problems with putting a nuclear reactor on the moon:
- Environmental concerns. Managing nuclear waste in the lunar environment would be difficult because disposal options are limited. Burying reactors under lunar regolith could mitigate radiation but poses challenges for long-term storage.
- Safety risks. Operating reactors without manned personnel by relying on autonomous systems untested in the moon’s extreme conditions — low gravity, temperature swings, and lack of atmosphere — are a big hurdle to surmount.
- Launch risks. A rocket failure could release nuclear material into the Earth’s atmosphere, causing catastrophic environmental and public health consequences over large portions of the globe.
- Lunar conditions. The moon is a harsh environment and reactors must withstand prolonged darkness and cosmic radiation, which could degrade systems.
- Geopolitical issues. A U.S. reactor could escalate tensions with China and Russia, potentially leading to disputes over lunar territory.
- Budget cuts and delays. NASA and its Artemis program have undergone significant cuts, while unproven components like SpaceX’s Starship, add logistical uncertainty.
It underscores the adage, just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should.
Key Takeaways
While Trump’s plan to deploy an SMR on the moon by 2030 is a bold vision for advancing U.S. space exploration, its practical challenges are daunting. Technical, environmental, safety, and geopolitical risks, combined with NASA’s funding constraints, make the timeline ambitious and uncertain.
Investors should approach OKLO, SMR, and NNE with caution. While their stocks have soared on lunar reactor speculation, their lack of current profitability — NuScale’s $1 billion in losses over five years, Oklo’s projected losses through 2026, and Nano Nuclear’s pre-revenue status — suggests high risk.
The lunar project’s success is not guaranteed, and terrestrial applications may drive more immediate value. Betting on these stocks solely for the moonshot is unwise, as the risks outweigh the theoretical rewards.