Election Optimism Good for Holiday Shopping: Analyst Top Picks

November 17, 2016 by Lee Jackson

Any way you look at it, and regardless of who you voted for, getting the election completed is good for stock market investors. Despite fears of a Trump victory causing a major sell-off, just the opposite has happened, and optimism for tax cuts and growth in the economy is on the rise. That is just the ticket to help boost holiday sales, and some large cap potential winners may be just the right additions to portfolios.

In a new research report, Merrill Lynch’s Lorraine Hutchinson sees holiday comparisons growing at just under 1%, and she agrees that tax cuts and potential for gross domestic product growth could give a boost, albeit a moderate one, to holiday spending. She cites three top picks in the retail sector, and we also think a large cap technology stock is poised for another year of sales growth.

All four are rated Buy at Merrill Lynch, and the first three below are the Merrill Lynch top retail picks for the holiday season.

Burlington Stores

This top retail stock has backed up in price since the end of September and is offering good entry point. Burlington Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: BURL) is a national off-price retailer of high-quality branded apparel with more than 500 locations in 44 states and Puerto Rico. Burlington also operates an e-commerce business. The company sources from over 5,000 vendors, with a focus on nationally recognized brands. Similar to other off-price retailers, the company employs an everyday low price model and offers discounts of 60% to 70% off department and specialty stores’ regular prices.

The analyst points out that last year’s unseasonably warm weather during the holiday season put a dent in coats and cold weather accessories, and this year’s expectation for normal cooler weather could be a plus. Also cited is the customer’s desire for discounted pricing on brands that will be similar to department store offerings.

The Merrill Lynch price target for the stock is $95, while the Wall Street consensus target is $89.46. The shares closed most recently at $77.20.

Costco

This has become the ultimate destination for the American consumer regardless of the economy. Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) has a unique business model: It operates membership warehouses where the company buys the majority of its merchandise directly from manufacturers, essentially cutting out the middleman. Costco sells in bulk but also at a lower price, thus fueling its rapid growth. With consumers having more free cash to spend with gasoline prices still low, this major retailer may continue to see large revenue gains.

Costco remains one of the few conventional retailers where metrics like store traffic, market share gains and a validated model that could bode well in international growth and expansion. The company is largely unharmed by e-commerce, and it continues to add stores in strategically mapped out locations.

Merrill Lynch cites the company’s pricing authority on key items, the leading merchandising offering and the company’s relatively new Costco co-branded card with Visa as real positives. The firm also points to the company’s growing online presence.

Costco shareholders receive a 1.18% dividend. The Merrill Lynch price objective is $170, and the consensus target is $168.51. Shares closed yesterday at $152.14.

Home Depot

This company remains the undisputed leader in the home improvement retail category, and it just reported outstanding earnings. Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) is the world’s largest home improvement specialty retailer, with 2,270 retail stores in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, 10 Canadian provinces and Mexico.

Home Depot stores sell various building materials, home improvement products, and lawn and garden products, as well as provide installation, home maintenance and professional service programs to do-it-yourself (DIY), do-it-for-me (DIFM) and professional customers.

Home Depot could also be a benefactor from the damage done in Florida and along the Southeast coast recently from Hurricane Matthew. Toss in the huge rebuilding efforts in Louisiana after the severe flooding there, and the third and fourth quarter results could indeed be a bonanza for the company and investors.

The analysts note that typically the second quarter is the company’s best, but they cite strong demand for holiday decor, the potential for the earlier, cold winter and the election outcome as all positives for the company

Home Depot investors receive a 2.2% dividend. Merrill Lynch has a $158 price target, while the consensus price objective is $147.49. Shares closed Wednesday at $125.33.

Amazon

This company is the absolute leader in online retail and a dominant player in cloud storage business. Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) serves consumers through retail websites that primarily include merchandise and content purchased for resale from vendors and those offered by third-party sellers. In addition, the company serves developers and enterprises through Amazon Web Services (AWS), which provides compute, storage, database, analytics, applications and deployment services that enable virtually various businesses.

AWS is the undisputed leader in the cloud now, and many top analysts team see the company expanding and moving up the enterprise information value chain and targeting a larger total addressable market. The company has had numerous recent product announcements, including Aurora for relational database engine, Quick Sight for business intelligence and AWS Database Migration Support Service.

Amazon reported a mixed quarter in October, and top analysts around Wall Street noted that revenues were in line and margins were soft. Guidance was below expectations as the company continues to invest, but the sales midpoint was also below expectations. Many suggest buying the dip as nothing here changes the view that Amazon is best positioned to benefit from the shift of commerce from offline to online, and it is also looking to expand to Australia.

The analyst feels the company is well-positioned to capture upside, especially in the competitive consumer electronics category. Plus the ease of online holiday shopping has increased usage considerably.

The $960 Merrill Lynch price target compares with the consensus target of $920.10.The shares closed Wednesday at $746.49, and that’s down over 11% in just over two weeks.

While retail may not be the most exciting category, all these large cap leaders make good sense in growth portfolios, and despite the big market advance since the election, they are all well below 52-week highs.

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