24/7 Wall St.

The Institute for Supply Management is out with its semiannual outlook, and the group sees economic growth continuing in 2013. The December 2012 Semiannual Economic Forecast is based on surveys of purchasing and supply management executives. The good news is that the expansion (or recovery) that started in 2009 is optimistic about growth in 2013.

Revenues are expected to increase in 17 manufacturing industries, and the nonmanufacturing sector predicts that 14 of its industries will see higher revenues. Capital expenditures are even expected to rise, a good outlook considering the news of late around the fiscal cliff and around lower cap-ex spending trends. The report is not as positive on employment trends, with less than 1% growth in manufacturing and only about 1.3% employment growth in nonmanufacturing.

Here is the projected growth for 2013 versus today, broken down by manufacturing and nonmanufacturing sectors:

• The group sees manufacturing growth next year, and it sees revenues increasing by about 4.6%. One interesting call is that it sees capital expenditures up by 7.6%, with capacity utilization currently at 77.5%.
• Nonmanufacturing growth is projected in 2013, with revenues rising about 4.3% and capital expenditures rising by 7%, with capacity utilization currently at 85.4%.

FULL ISM OUTLOOK FOR 2013

JON C. OGG