24/7 Wall St.

Global climate change and pollution from the use of fossil fuels killed nearly 5 million people around the world in 2010, according to a report released last week by climate change advocacy group DARA. By 2030, this figure will rise to nearly 6 million deaths, the group’s second annual climate vulnerability monitor estimates. Total global costs, which were estimated at more than $600 billion in 2010, are expected to rise to $4.35 trillion by 2030.

Read: Countries Where Climate Change Kills the Most People

Of the 4.95 million people who died in 2010 as a result of pollution and climate change, 3.49 million were located in just 10 countries. These nations, primarily highly populated developing African and Asian countries, stand to lose between 0.8% and 7% of their gross domestic product in 2030 because of these factors.

Factors identified by the study as major causes of death in these countries include environmental disasters, disease, extreme heat and cold, and famine. Pollution and indoor smoke, both caused by global reliance on fossil fuels, also account for hundreds of thousands of deaths each year. Based on DARA’s report, 24/7 Wall St. identified, the 10 countries where global warming kills the most people.

The 10 nations include South and Southeast asian countries of India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, China and Pakistan, as well as several of the largest African nations. They are developing countries, struggling with widespread disease, famine and heat- and cold-related illnesses — all of which, according to DARA, are exacerbated by climate change.

According to the report, as nations like China continue to develop, some of the damage due to global warming will be mitigated. Despite a growing population and worsening climate conditions, China is estimated to have the same number of deaths due to climate change and pollution in 2030 as it had in 2010. However, in slower-developing nations such as India and Pakistan, the number of deaths will rise by 50% or more. In Pakistan, it will more than double to 250,000.

Further, the report notes that those nations that are responsible for the vast majority of global climate change are the ones that are suffering — and will continue to suffer — the least. In 2010, more than 82% of the worldwide costs due to climate change were incurred by developing countries. Meanwhile, 98% of all deaths were in developing countries, the vast majority of which were in low-emitting countries. Conversely, by 2030 just 1% of all deaths will be felt by the developed world, which is largely responsible for carbon emissions and climate change.

While developed nations are likely to remain much better off than developing nations without resources, this does not mean they do not feel the impact of climate change. The United States, one of the biggest emitters of carbon gases in the world, is indeed far from immune. In 2010, DARA estimates roughly 80,000 Americans died due to either climate change or pollution caused by the use of fossil fuels. The report also projects that the U.S. will lose more than 2% of its GDP by 2030.

Matthew McKinnon, head of DARA’s Climate Vulnerability Initiative and editor of the report, explained that the U.S. has already had a severe impact due to climate change. Elements already affecting the country include worsened drought, floods and tropical storms. McKinnon added that different types of disease-carrying mosquitoes are moving up from Mexico into parts of the U.S. that have not seen those insects before. He also mentioned the plight in Alaska, in which land that was once permanently frozen is now melting and the infrastructure that was built on it is in jeopardy. “The United States, frankly, it’s not an invulnerable country,” McKinnon said.

Based on estimates from DARA’s report, 24/7 Wall St. identified the 10 nations with the most deaths in 2010 estimated to be the result of either by climate change or pollution caused by the use of fossil fuels. We also included DARA estimates for the total number of people affected, namely, those that were injured but did not die due to each type of impact, as well as the total estimated costs in 2010 U.S. dollars as a percentage of GDP. 24/7 Wall St. reviewed additional data, including GDP, GDP per capita and life expectancy, provided by the World Bank for 2011 or the most recent available year.

These are the countries where climate change kills the most people.
10. Afghanistan
> Deaths: 90,000
> Population: 34.4 million
> Affected population: 10 million
> Pct. of GDP lost on climate change/emissions: 8.3%

According to DARA’s Climate Vulnerability Monitor, climate change and pollution are key factors driving premature mortality in Afghanistan, leading to 90,000 deaths in 2010. This number is expected to rise to 150,000 by 2030, as climate change is projected to lead to drought, hunger and stress on agriculture. Diarrheal infections from climate change, caused by increasing rates of food spoiling and water contamination when temperatures rise, are expected to cause more than 4,000 deaths a year by 2030. As of 2010, life expectancy in Afghanistan was already one of the lowest in world at just 48.3 years.

9. Russia
> Deaths: 100,000
> Population: 141.8 million
> Affected population: 8 million
> Pct. of GDP lost on climate change/emissions: 1.7%

In 2010, approximately 98,000 people died due to the effects of carbon pollution. Reuters recently reported that Russia said it will not cut emissions past the first round of commitments of the Kyoto Protocol, agreed to by all industrialized nations except the United States. But while Russia’s emissions in 2010 were 34% below 1990 levels, Soviet-backed industrial emissions from the 1980s and 1990s still contribute to high incidences of “cancer, cardiopulmonary and respiratory illnesses,” the DARA report notes. The number of deaths due to climate change and carbon pollution is expected to decrease from 100,000 people annually in 2010 to 80,000 people in 2030.

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8. Ethiopia
> Deaths: 100,000
> Population: 83 million
> Affected population: 10 million
> Pct. of GDP lost on climate change/emissions: 4.7%

By 2030, the number of Ethiopians whose lives will be affected by pollution and climate change is expected to rise to 15 million annually. The health impact of climate changes is expected to be especially troubling. As temperatures rise globally, diarrheal infections caused by spoiling food are expected to become serious concerns in Ethiopia, costing 6,500 lives a year by 2030. As of 2010, the agriculture cost of climate change was already $450 million annually, a figure DARA anticipates will rise to $3 billion a year within the next 20 years. This is hardly good news for a country that had GDP per capita of $374 last year, one of the lowest in the world.

7. Bangladesh
> Deaths: 100,000
> Population: 148.7 million
> Affected population: 55 million
> Pct. of GDP lost on climate change/emissions: 3.7%

As of 2010, pollution and climate change cost an estimated 100,000 lives in Bangladesh, while another 55 million people were otherwise adversely impacted — more than any country aside from India and China. By 2030, DARA projects there will be about 150,000 deaths and an additional 70 million people affected each year in the country. The group also anticipates that hunger, caused by increasing food insecurity as the world’s climate worsens, is expected to cause 15,000 deaths, and adversely affect another 15 million Bangladeshis by 2030. The country has been proactive in addressing these issues, pledging never to exceed the average per capita emissions of the world’s developing nations.

6. Democratic Republic of the Congo
> Deaths: 100,000
> Population: 66 million
> Affected population: 15 million
> Pct. of GDP lost on climate change/emissions: 11%

In 2010, about 17,000 lives were lost in the Democratic Republic of the Congo due to climate change, while another 84,000 were lost due to carbon emissions . By 2030, those figures are expected to rise to 25,000 and 91,000 deaths, respectively. A big problem in the country is meningitis, partially due to rising humidity and irregular weather patterns. The country’s death toll from meningitis is “in the thousands.” The problem is that Congo currently lacks the resources necessary to combat these problems. GDP per capita as of 2011 was only $231, the lowest of all 203 countries measured by the World Bank.
5. Indonesia
> Deaths: 150,000
> Population: 239.9 million
> Affected population: 30 million
> Pct. of GDP lost on climate change/emissions: 5.3%

Annual deaths due to climate change and carbon emission in Indonesia are expected to reach 200,000 by 2030. The costs of dealing with global warming are expected to rise immensely in the coming years, too. On climate change alone, DARA projects that Indonesia will have to spend 7% of its GDP in 2030. An example is maintaining the country’s biodiversity — reversing the destruction of Indonesia’s natural ecosystem through activities such as logging and natural changes due to irregular weather — which cost Indonesia $10 billion in 2010 but is expected to rise to $90 billion by 2030.

4. Pakistan
> Deaths: 150,000
> Population: 173.6 million
> Affected population: 20 million
> Pct. of GDP lost on climate change/emissions: 3.3%

DARA estimates that 250,000 people will die in Pakistan in 2030. That’s 100,000 more than in 2010. Air pollution is expected to be particularly deadly in the country, as are floods and landslides. In 2010, massive floods that spread through the country killed thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands. Climate change is also projected to lead to famine in the country. Hunger killed an estimated 10,000 people in 2010. By 2030, DARA estimates 25,000 people will die annually due to starvation.

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3. Nigeria
> Deaths: 200,000
> Population: 158.4 million
> Affected population: 20 million
> Pct. of GDP lost on climate change/emissions: 6.3%

Nigeria, with a population of more than 158 million people, loses 200,000 people annually due to climate change and pollution caused by carbon emissions as of 2010, a figure that is expected to remain the same through 2030. An additional 20 million people were considered to be affected by the changes annually. Approximately 150,000 people in Nigeria die each year due to indoor smoke ingestion, which exposes people to risks such as tuberculosis and lung cancer. DARA believes the reason for the indoor smoke is partially because of uneven electricity distribution, which forces many Nigerians to heat their homes and cook by burning fuels.

2. India
> Deaths: 1 million
> Population: 1,224.6 million
> Affected population: 250 million
> Pct. of GDP lost on climate change/emissions: 3.2%

As of 2010, climate change and pollution cost India $128 billion. By 2030, climate change alone is expected to cost about $680 billion a year, while pollution will cost India another $129 billion annually. The effects of climate change and pollution are hardly limited to the nation’s economy, as within the next 20 years, DARA projects that the number of deaths due to these factors will reach 1.5 million annually. Already, these factors are estimated to cost 1 million lives and adversely impact one-quarter of a billion people, per year. Hunger, brought on by diminished access to food as the climate worsens, is expected to kill 250,000 people annually by 2030.

1. China
> Deaths: 1.5 million
> Population: 1,338.3 million
> Affected population: 100 million
> Pct. of GDP lost on climate change/emissions: 1.4%

1.5 million people die each year in China due to climate change and carbon emissions, with another 100 million people affected by these factors each year. Most of those deaths, nearly 1.4 million, are the result of carbon pollution. The costs for China have been staggering as well. In 2010, climate change cost the country $72 billion, while carbon emissions cost the country $71 billion. By 2030, those figures are expected to rise to $727 billion and $451 billion, respectively. A report by the Chinese government released in Jan. 2012, warned that global warming could cut grain output in the country by some 5%-20% by mid-century and will lead to “severe imbalances in China’s water resources” over the coming years.

Michael B. Sauter, Alexander E. M. Hess and Sameul Weigley

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