The Only Housing Markets to Drop This Year

It took several years for the U.S. to start recovering from the housing bust, but it finally is. Prices across the U.S. increased by 7.6% between the third quarter of 2011 and the third quarter of 2012. In 120 of the 149 metropolitan areas measured by the National Association of Realtors, median sale prices of homes improved. Some of the hardest-hit markets are seeing housing prices recovery in the double-digits. In Phoenix, where prices fell by 15.7% during the recession, the median price soared by nearly 35% in the past 12 months.

Read: The Only Housing Markets to Drop This Year

And yet, in recent months, real estate markets in certain large cities across the country aren’t doing as well. Home prices in those cities either continued to fall or have started to drop after a period of improvement. In ten of the largest U.S. metropolitan areas, prices fell by 3% or more in the past 12 months. In Raleigh-Cary, North Carolina, prices sank by 16.1% during that period. Based on housing data provided by the National Association of Realtors and Realtor.com, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the ten markets to drop significantly in the past 12 months.

The markets doing poorly now fared well during the recession. Prices fell less than the national average of 3.4% during the recession in most of these housing markets. In the case of four of the ten markets, prices actually rose. In the Champaign-Urbana, Illinois metro area, the median home price increased by 2.3% during the recession years. This means, explained Walter Moloney, media representative at Realtor.com, that these declines could only be temporary drops in markets that have been consistently performing above-average. For example, this could be due to fluctuations in the number of foreclosures in a market.

Increased unemployment often accompanies serious home price declines. And never was that more true than during the recession, when home prices fell the most in places such as California, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, and Nevada, all of which had the highest unemployment rates in the nation.

While it isn’t clear whether the price drops in some of these markets will be long-term, one sign that these declines are a product of economic troubles is the job markets in these cities. In seven of these ten biggest declining real estate markets, unemployment either remained the same or rose between August 2011 and August 2012. In that period, national unemployment fell from 9.1% to 8.1%. In the Kingston, New York metro area, where home prices fell by 3.3% in the past 12 months, unemployment rose from 8% to 9.3% during that time.

Based on Realtor.com quarterly median home sale prices for the largest metropolitan statistical areas in the U.S., 24/7 Wall St. identified the ten housing markets with the greatest home value declines between Q3 2011 and Q3 2012. Only 29 of the 149 housing markets provided by The National Association of Realtors fell during that time. NAR also provided annual sales data for each year between 2009 and 2011. For our analysis, we also reviewed unemployment rates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for August 2011 and August 2012.
10. Atlantic City, N.J.
> Pct. change: -3.0%
> Sales price 2012: $214,000
> Sales price 2011: $220,600
> Aug. 2012 Unemployment: 12.2%
> Aug. 2011 Unemployment: 11.9%

From 2009 to 2011, home prices in Atlantic City barely changed, rising 0.9% even as nationwide prices declined by 3.4%. However, in the last 12 months ending in September 2012, Atlantic City’s median sale price fell to $214,000, down from full year 2011, when median sale price was $223,200. The housing market is likely to be further burdened by Hurricane Sandy, as renovation costs rise and potential owners consider other locations. According to Corelogic estimates, the storm exposed an estimated 20,000 properties worth about $4.8 billion in the metropolitan area.

9. Kingston, N.Y.
> Pct. change: -3.3%
> Sales price 2012: $199,200
> Sales price 2011: $206,100
> Trend: Consistent fall
> Aug. 2012 Unemployment: 9.3%
> Aug. 2011 Unemployment: 8.0%

The Kingston housing market recently suffered a major blow when the median sale price sank by some 23% in one quarter — from $202,700 in the fourth quarter of 2011 to $156,800 in the first quarter of 2012. Prices then rebounded quickly to $198,600 in the second quarter and $199,200 in the third, but they are still at a multi-year low. The median sale price in the Kingston area was $208,400 in 2009 and $213,800 in 2010. Similar to many of the metro areas on this list, the unemployment in the region was above the national rate as of late. The unemployment rate in Kingston was 9.4% in July and 9.3% in August, much higher than the 8.3% and 8.1% jobless rates nationwide, respectively.

Also Read: America’s Most Expensive Neighborhoods

8. Newark-Union, N.J.-Penn.
> Pct. change: -3.4%
> Sales price 2012: $389,400
> Sales price 2011: $403,100
> Aug. 2012 Unemployment: 9.1%
> Aug. 2011 Unemployment: 8.6%

In the third quarter of 2011, the median sale price of a house in the Newark-Union area reached a high of $403,100. Since then, home prices in the region began a year-long descent. By the third quarter of 2012, prices were down by more than $13,000. Although the area’s home market has partly recovered — third-quarter median home price is nearly $20,000 greater than the median sale price for the full year 2011 — the area’s economy still faces many challenges. Through September, the number of manufacturing and government jobs has declined, allowing for a paltry 0.9% growth in the overall number of jobs in the area.

7. New Haven-Milford, Conn.
> Pct. change: -3.5%
> Sales price 2012: $227,200
> Sales price 2011: $235,400
> Trend: Recent drop
> Aug. 2012 Unemployment: 9.7%
> Aug. 2011 Unemployment: 9.4%

Between 2009 and 2011, the median sale price of a home in the New Haven area fell 5.3%, more than the national average drop of 3.4%. Only 29 of the nearly 150% In 2012, the sale price has been going up, with prices in the third quarter of 2012 $4,000 above the full-year 2011 level. The median sale price was $193,100 in the first quarter of 2012. That soared to $223,500 in the second quarter. The unemployment rate in the New Haven area was far above the national rate in recent months — in July and August, it was 9.7%.

6. Champaign-Urbana, Ill.
> Pct. change: -3.6%
> Sales price 2012: $149,400
> Sales price 2011: $154,900
> Aug. 2012 Unemployment: 7.3%
> Aug. 2011 Unemployment: 7.8%

Champaign-Urbana bucked the national trend during the Great Recession. While home prices fell by 3.4% nationwide between 2009 and 2011, they actually rose by 2.3% in the region. Over the last year, however, this trend has reversed. Over the last 12 months, the U.S. real estate market has been rallying, with the median sales price up 7.6% year-over-year. But in Champaign-Urbana, the median home price has declined by 3.6%.

5. Tallahassee, Fla.
> Pct. change: -3.8%
> Sales price 2012: $144,400
> Sales price 2011: $150,100
> Aug. 2012 Unemployment: 7.4%
> Aug. 2011 Unemployment: 8.9%

As the housing bubble burst, real estate markets in many Florida towns suffered far more than Tallahassee’s. At the start of 2012, home prices in Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormund, Palm Coast, and Lakeland-Winter Haven areas plummeted by more than 50% from their peaks, according to Fiserv. However, in the last 12 months, home sale prices in Tallahassee dropped the most out of all the cities in Florida. In the third quarter of 2011, the area’s median home sold for just over $150,000, nearly identical to its median price in 2009. Since then, prices have slipped nearly 4% to $144,400 in the third quarter of 2012.

4. Madison, Wisc.
> Pct. change: -4.3%
> Sales price 2012: $210,600
> Sales price 2011: $220,100
> Aug. 2012 Unemployment: 5.2%
> Aug. 2011 Unemployment: 5.2%

Median sales prices in Madison have fluctuated a good deal in the first three quarters of 2012. The median sale price in the third quarter was $210,600, down $6,000 from the second quarter but up $11,400 from the first quarter. Home sales are growing across Wisconsin as a whole — total sales were up 4.6% in September compared to the previous year, and compared to a drop of 1.7% across the U.S. But sale prices in the state went up just 0.2% in September compared to 11.3% nationwide.

Also Read: 10 Cities With The Hottest Housing Markets

3. Binghamton, N.Y.
> Pct. change: -6.6%
> Sales price 2012: $112,600
> Sales price 2011: $120,500
> Aug. 2012 Unemployment: 8.9%
> Aug. 2011 Unemployment: 7.9%

Just like the rest of the nation, home prices in the Binghamton area fell between 2009 and 2011, but the 1.6% drop was less than the national decline of 3.4% in that time. Prices have continued to fall since the third quarter of 2011. The biggest decrease took place between the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2011, when prices tumbled by $10,700 to $109,800. The median sale price fell again in the second quarter of 2012 to $109,200. And although it rose to $114,000 in the third quarter, it didn’t recover enough to reach its third quarter 2011 level. While unemployment fell across the country, the jobless rate in Binghamton rose a whole percentage point between Aug. 2011 and Aug. 2012.

2. York-Hanover, Penn.
> Pct. change: -9.4%
> Sales price 2012: $143,900
> Sales price 2011: $158,900
> Aug. 2012 Unemployment: 8.0%
> Aug. 2011 Unemployment: 8.0%

Over the last year, the median sale price of a home in the York-Hanover area plunged by nearly 10% to $143,900 — more than $40,000 below the U.S median of $186,100. Housing prices have fallen despite a 20% drop in inventory — the supply of homes being sold — in the city of York. Not only are sales prices down, but sellers have adjusted as well; median listing price has declined by more than $4,000 to $165,000 in the last 12 months, according to Realtor.com. However, lower prices have helped attract more home buyers — 2,816 homes have been sold in the first nine months of 2012 in York County, a 6% rise compared to the first nine months of 2011, when 2,655 were sold.

1. Raleigh-Cary, N.C.
> Pct. change: -16.1%
> Sales price 2012: $188,200
> Sales price 2011: $224,300
> Aug. 2012 Unemployment: 7.8%
> Aug. 2011 Unemployment: 9.0%

Home prices have taken a hard fall in the Raleigh area, sinking 16.1% between the third quarter of 2011 and the third quarter of 2012. The median sale price of $188,200 in the third quarter of 2012 was well below the median sale prices of $215,400 in 2009 and the median sale price of $217,600 and 2010. The recent plunging median home price is a correction from 2011, when home values in the Raleigh area appreciated by 7% — better than any other housing market in the country. In fact, Builder Magazine in 2011 named the Raleigh housing market the healthiest of the largest 100 metropolitan areas.

-By Alexander E.M. Hess, Samuel Weigley, Michael B. Sauter

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