Ten American Cities Hurricanes Could Devastate

June 5, 2013 by 247sam

hurricaneOn June 1, the Atlantic hurricane season officially began. According to a report released earlier this week, an estimated $1.1 trillion in property are at risk of hurricane damage. More than $658 billion of those homes are located within just 10 metropolitan areas.

Property data analytics firm CoreLogic’s “2013 Storm Surge Report” reviewed storm surge and flooding models for hurricanes to identify the metropolitan areas at greatest risk of property damage. With an estimated $205 billion at risk, the greater New York City area, which was decimated by Hurricane Sandy last October, has the most property on the line. Based on CoreLogic’s estimates, these are the 10 cities a hurricane could damage the most.

Click here to see the 10 cities a hurricane could devastate

A Category 5 hurricane is unlikely to hit any major U.S. city this season. If Sandy is any indication, however, it does n0t take a Category 5 hurricane to cause massive damage. The Category 1 hurricane has an impact on 650,000 homes and caused an estimated $50 billion in damage. In most of these major metro areas, even a Category 1 hurricane would cause at least $10 billion in damage.

A number of factors contribute to the potential cost caused by a hurricane. The number of homes in some areas is a factor, as is their average value. Tampa has roughly 300,000 properties at risk, compared to Miami’s 240,000. However, the total value of property in the Miami area that is at risk is more than double that of Tampa’s. This means the total property destruction in Miami during a hurricane could potentially exceed $100 billion — the second most of any metro area in the country — compared to Tampa’s $55 billion.

Many people believe the risk is greatest in areas recently hit by hurricanes, according to CoreLogic Senior Hazard Scientist Dr. Thomas Jeffery. With consecutive years of hurricanes striking the Northeast, other high-risk areas highlighted by FEMA and USGS models, such as the Carolinas, tend to be ignored. Following Hurricanes Irene and Sandy, the Northeast is in the spotlight, while other high-risk areas are not. “Just because we haven’t had an event in a number of years in some of these places doesn’t mean that they’re without risk,” Dr. Jeffery warned.

Reviewing the nation’s largest Census Bureau Statistical Areas, or CBSAs, CoreLogic created a model to estimate the value of property at risk of flooding based on the strength of a hurricane in each region. Properties at extreme risk could be damaged by flooding caused by excess rainfall or storm surge caused by ocean water pushed inland by a storm. Properties that are at very high risk could be damaged by a Category 2 hurricane or greater. Total damage estimates are based on the worst-case scenario for a hurricane, which is a Category 5 hurricane. Areas in or north of the state of Maryland did not have property estimated at risk for a Category 5 hurricane because such a hurricane is highly unlikely in those regions. CoreLogic looked at CBSAs containing at least 2 million residents.

These are the cities where hurricanes would cause the most damage.

10. Charleston, S.C.
> Property value at risk:
$31.5 billion
> Properties at risk:
81,484
> Area at greatest risk:
Mount Pleasant, 29464
> Property value at extreme risk:
$14.5 billion

Charleston is among the metropolitan areas with homes at high risk in the event a major storm hits. More than a third of the 81,484 properties at risk for storm surge are in extreme risk areas. The estimated value of those properties most likely to be damaged by storm surge is roughly $14.5 billion. Mount Pleasant, located in the Charleston area, has the most property at risk of sustaining damage during a storm, valued at an estimated $5.2 billion. The largest hurricane to recently hit the Charleston area was Hurricane Hugo in 1989. The storm left 49 people dead and destroyed more than $7 billion worth of property in the state.

9. Bradenton, Fla.
> Property value at risk:
$33.8 billion
> Properties at risk:
138,226
> Area at greatest risk:
Sarasota, 34242
> Property value at extreme risk:
$10.0 billion

Bradenton is located on the west coast of Florida, putting the area at high risk of storms arising from the Gulf of Mexico. One part of Sarasota, which is located within the greater Bradenton area, has 2,700 properties at risk, with a total estimated value of $2.4 billion. Other areas at risk include parts of Venice and Nokomis. CoreLogic estimates that a Category 1 hurricane would cause nearly $10 billion in damage. Bradenton has not been struck directly by a serious hurricane in recent years, but did see flooding from Hurricanes Frances and Ivan.

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8. Naples, Fla.
> Property value at risk:
$34.5 billion
> Properties at risk:
76,104
> Area at greatest risk:
Naples, 34102
> Property value at extreme risk:
$14.9 billion

Like Bradenton, Naples is located in Southwestern Florida and is at high risk of damage from storms coming off the Gulf of Mexico. The Naples area has fewer homes than the other 10 areas with the highest hurricane damage risk. However, the area is full of affluent retirement communities, and the average property value of $453,394 is greater than any of the at-risk metro areas except for New York. Close to $15 billion in property would be damaged in the event of a Category 1 hurricane. Because of the area’s geography, nearly all of its 76,000 at risk properties would be damaged by a Category 3 storm. The Naples area was the site of the landfall of Hurricane Andrew in 1996, which remained the costliest disaster in U.S. history until Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

7. Wilmington, N.C.
> Property value at risk:
$38.2 billion
> Properties at risk:
114,695
> Area at greatest risk:
Southport, 28461
> Property value at extreme risk:
$12.7 billion

More than $38 billion worth of property is estimated to be at risk in the Wilmington metro area, with about $12.7 billion considered to be at extreme risk. In the case of a Category 5 storm, the hardest hit areas would be parts of Southport, Supply and Oak Island. The worst hurricane to hit the Wilmington area was Hurricane Floyd, which produced more than 19 inches of rainfall in the area. The hurricane was responsible for 57 deaths across the United States, 35 of them in North Carolina.

6. Cape Coral, Fla.
> Property value at risk:
$42.9 billion
> Properties at risk:
198,020
> Area at greatest risk:
Cape Coral, 33914
> Property value at extreme risk:
$22.5 billion

More than 75,000 of the 198,000 total properties at risk in Cape Coral are considered to be at risk of damage in even the least severe hurricane. While the area that would receive the most damage as a result of a storm is located in Cape Coral proper, other areas that stand to take a lot of damage include parts of Bonita Springs, Sanibel and Fort Myers. An additional 37,000 homes are considered to be in very high risk, while more than 51,000 are considered to be high risk. The most significant storm to hit the area in recent years was Hurricane Charley back in 2004, which caused at least $600 million in damage.

5. New Orleans, La.
> Property value at risk:
$43.7 billion
> Properties at risk:
238,919
> Area at greatest risk:
Metairie, 70005
> Property value at extreme risk:
$10.3 billion

Approximately 56.7% of all New Orleans properties are in both a Special Flood Hazard Area and a Surge Zone designated by FEMA, a higher percentage than any other metropolitan area. This makes homes in the area at risk for both flooding and storm surges. More than a third of the nearly 239,000 properties at risk in the New Orleans metropolitan area are considered to be in extreme risk. The biggest storm to hit the United States in recent years, Hurricane Katrina, devastated the New Orleans metropolitan area. In a 2011 report released by the U.S. Census Bureau on the effects of Katrina, nearly three-fourths of the homeowners who still resided in the area indicated their home experienced damage during Katrina. And more than four in 10 homeowners indicated they suffered major damage that required repairs of more than $15,000.

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4. Tampa, Fla.
> Property value at risk:
$55.1 billion
> Properties at risk:
301,045
> Area at greatest risk:
Tampa, 33629
> Property value at extreme risk:
$21.2 billion

Over a quarter of the more than 300,000 at-risk properties in Tampa are considered to be at risk of damage even in a Category 1 hurricane. If a Category 5 hurricane hit the area, the total damage is estimated at more than $21 billion in total. Four of the five zip codes most at risk are located in Tampa proper, with the other located in St. Petersburg. Despite all the high potential risk, the last time a strong hurricane hit the Tampa area was all the way back in 1921, when certain parts experienced rainfall as high as 11.7 inches and a storm surge of 10.5 feet.

3. Virginia Beach, Va.
> Property value at risk:
$73.0 billion
> Properties at risk:
305,943
> Area at greatest risk:
Virginia Beach, 23456
> Property value at extreme risk:
$16.5 billion

Virginia Beach has nearly 306,000 homes at risk, with 61,746 considered to be at extreme risk. More than half of the more than $73 billion in property value at risk in the Virginia Beach would be damaged by at least a Category 2 hurricane. The three zip codes with the most property value at risk are all located in the city of Virginia Beach, with other high-risk areas including parts of Hampton and Chesapeake. The Virginia Beach area experienced significant damage following Hurricane Irene in August 2011, leaving thousands of properties flooded and hundreds of thousands of people without power.

2. Miami, Fla.
> Property value at risk: $100.1 billion
> Properties at risk: 239,910
> Area at greatest risk: Miami, 33156
> Property value at extreme risk: $42.5 billion

Miami, by far, has the most homes in areas that are considered to be exposed to flood or surge inundation. More than $42 billion worth of property is located in extreme areas, higher than any other metro area except for New York. The specific zip code most at risk is in a part of Miami proper with 6,599 properties and a value of more than $6.8 billion. Among the other areas at high risk are parts of Palm Beach, West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale.

1. New York, N.Y.
> Property value at risk:
 $205.7 billion
> Properties at risk: 447,428
> Area at greatest risk:
Point Pleasant Beach, 08742
> Property value at extreme risk:
$57.5 billion

No area could face more damage than the New York City metropolitan area. Of the more than $200 billion in properties that are at risk, more than $57 billion are at extreme risk, also higher than any other metro area in the country. Hurricane Sandy in 2012 caused at least $71 billion in damage in both New York state and New Jersey, with much of it in the New York metropolitan area. Point Pleasant Beach, N.J., is the riskiest part of the New York metro area, with 9,475 properties worth a combined $4.5 billion at risk. Other areas that stand to have high property damage include the New York municipalities of Massapequa and Oceanside.

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