The Atlanta Falcons are one of the most puzzling teams in a season full of NFL befuddlement. They started 4-4, barely squeaked into the postseason, and then upset the Los Angeles Rams on the road in the wild-card round to move on.
Bing Predicts didn’t see that one coming. Bing was two of four in wild-card predictions, also missing the Tennessee Titans’ upset win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Bing was not alone on that one.
Apparently, the Falcons are starting to find believers because they are favored on the road at Philadelphia on Saturday in the NFC divisional round, although this likely due largely to Carson Wentz’s absence. Don’t sleep on Matt Ryan and his bunch. It looks like they are playing their best ball at the right time. They’ve got to still be hurting from February’s loss in the Super Bowl when they saw a 28-3 third-quarter lead evaporate at the hands of Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.
Those same Patriots are a huge favorite over the Titans this week. Could we see a Falcons-Patriots rematch in the Super Bowl? It’s certainly possible, but there is still a lot of football to be played.
The Minnesota Vikings face a tough matchup with the New Orleans Saints on Sunday in what could be the best game of the weekend, while the Pittsburgh Steelers are favored over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Bing’s NFL predictions use team and player statistics and web activity to build a statistical model that takes into account historical data and real-time information (like injuries, suspensions, and lineup changes). Finally, social sentiment adds a unique wisdom-of-the-crowd factor to the model. Learn more about Bing Predicts.
Click here to see Bing’s predictions for the NFL playoffs divisional round.
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Source: Rich Schultz / Getty Images
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
> Bing Predicts winner: Atlanta (58%)
> Kickoff time: 4:35 PM EDT (Saturday)
> Game spread: Atlanta -3
> Postseason matchup history: Eagles lead 2-1
The No. 6 seed Falcons go into the mean green territory of the top-seeded Eagles as the favorites.
Atlanta’s defense was impressive against the NFL’s top offense in the 26-13 wild-card win at the Los Angeles Rams. The Falcons are sneaky good and can’t be dismissed — they’ve won seven of their last nine games. These Falcons are not the same team that suffered humiliation at the hands of the Patriots in the Super Bowl a year ago. They’re more diverse with less dependence on quarterback Matt Ryan.
Wide receiver Julio Jones, who had 94 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Rams, is a key factor along with running back Devonta Freeman who had 66 rushing yards and a touchdown. Falcons’ linebacker Deion Jones had a huge wild-card game with 10 tackles and one pass defensed.
Eagles starting quarterback Nick Foles is one reason the Falcons are favored. It would be different if the injured Carson Wentz was healthy. In the last two games, Foles has completed just 43.2% of his passes with two interceptions and one touchdown.
The Eagles will depend on their run game with LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi, hoping to eat up the clock and keep the Falcons’ offense on the sidelines. Foles will have to complete a pass or two, and the Eagles’ defense — the best in the NFL against the run allowing just 79.2 rushing yards per game — will have to come up huge. Philadelphia typically is a tough place for a road team. The Eagles’ only loss at home was in Week 17 when they had already secured their playoff spot.
The Eagles, helmed by Donovan McNabb, beat the Falcons 27-10 in the NFC Championship Game in 2005, the last time the teams were paired in the postseason. The Eagles would go on to lose the Super Bowl to New England.
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Source: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
> Bing Predicts winner: New England (74%)
> Kickoff time: 8:15 PM EDT (Saturday)
> Game spread: Patriots -13.5
> Postseason matchup history: Patriots lead 2-0
Is anyone taking the Titans seriously? Yes, that would be the heavily favored Patriots. New England has not lost in the divisional round since 2011 in a 28-21 loss to the Jets. They do not overlook any team. Meanwhile, the Titans have not been to the playoffs in eight seasons.
Tom Brady and the gang, coming off a bye week, will be tough to handle. While Brady is no slouch in the regular season, he has set the most NFL quarterback playoff records entering his 35th postseason game. He’s thrown 63 playoff touchdown passes, which is tops all-time. Joe Montana is second with 45. It’s not just Brady. The Patriots’ defense has been playing much better than earlier in the season.
Don’t expect the dust-up after ESPN’s bombshell story about possible tensions between Brady, Bill Belichick, and Robert Kraft to play a role. If anything, it may make the triumvirate closer and tougher to beat.
Titans’ quarterback Marcus Mariota threw two touchdown passes, caught one from himself, and made a game-saving block as the Titans rallied from a 21-3 deficit to a 22-21 wild-card win over the Kansas City Chiefs. The multi-faceted quarterback (205 passing, 46 rushing yards) better have more in the tank heading to New England. Running back Derrick Henry made Mariota’s first playoff game easier with 23 carries for 156 yards and a touchdown.
The Titans’ defense hasn’t fared well against the pass (ranked 25th in NFL, allowing 239.2 yards per game). That could spell trouble going against Brady. However, they held the Chiefs to 61 net yards in the second half and sacked Alex Smith four times (Brian Orakpo with 1.5). So there is hope, just not too much.
The last time the two teams met in the playoffs in 2004, New England won 17-14 on a field goal by Adam Vinatieri (remember him?) in the fourth quarter. The Patriots would eventually win their second Super Bowl.
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Source: Joe Sargent / Getty Images
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers
> Bing Predicts winner: Pittsburgh (67%)
> Kickoff time: 1:05 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Pittsburgh -7.5
> Postseason matchup history: Jaguars lead 1-0
In this matchup, the Steelers, a more well-rounded team, are favored at home against the Jaguars.
But the first meeting this season between these two teams is one that Ben Roethlisberger would like to forget. The Steelers quarterback threw five interceptions in the Jaguars’ 30-9 win in Week 5. It was so bad he started to doubt himself. However, Big Ben came back for the rest of the season, finishing 13-3. The only way to get revenge for last year’s loss to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game is to first get past the Jaguars.
Wide receiver Antonio Brown, who has been out since Dec. 15 with a leg bruise, is back at practice this week and plans to play. All-Pro running back Le’Veon Bell (1,291 rushing yards with career-high nine rushing touchdowns) and the Steelers are coming off a bye and ready to go. The Steelers’ defense, ranked fifth in the NFL after the season, must focus on stopping the run.
Do not write off the Jaguars just because quarterback Blake Bortles is the weak link. He and Michael Vick are the only quarterbacks in NFL history to win a playoff game by gaining more rushing yards than passing yards. In the 10-3 wild-card win over the Bills, Bortles had 88 rushing and 87 passing yards. The Jaguars must run the ball effectively like they did in that first meeting, when they had 231 rushing yards with 181 from rookie Leonard Fournette.
Jacksonville’s defense was key in the Jaguars’ first home playoff win in 18 years. Defensive lineman Malik Johnson had one sack and one pass defensed in a game he called “a dogfight.” The Jaguars’ first matchup against the Steelers was on Oct. 8, when the temperature was 70 degrees, and the skies were blue. Sunday’s forecast calls for a high of 18 — a perfect day for football in Pittsburgh.
In their only postseason meeting in 2008, the Jaguars won 31-29 in an AFC wild-card game. Jacksonville would eventually lose to New England in a divisional playoff game.
Source: Adam Bettcher / Getty Images
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings
> Bing Predicts winner: Minnesota (58%)
> Kickoff time: 4:40 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: MInnesota -3.5
> Postseason matchup history: Vikings lead 2-1
The NFL schedule-makers saved the best for last this weekend. The favored Vikings are aiming to become the first team to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium. First, they have to beat the Saints.
While quarterback Case Keenum has drawn most of the headlines, he has not been the only factor in the Vikings’ rise to the top of the NFC North. In the last three games, the Vikings’ defense, led by safety Harrison Smith and cornerback Xavier Rhodes, has allowed an average of 5.7 points per game. Keenum finished on a high note, completing 78.4% of his passes with four touchdowns and zero interceptions in their last three games. Keenum had a quarterback rating of more than 100 in three games in December. In the first matchup against the Saints this season in Minneapolis, the Vikings won, 29-19, in the season opener. That was a long time ago.
Saints quarterback Drew Brees will celebrate his 39th birthday on Monday, but after the 31-26 wild-card win over the Carolina Panthers, running back Mark Ingram said Brees is still the man. Brees passed for 376 yards and two touchdowns in that victory at New Orleans. Wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. had a big day with four catches for 115 yards and a score. However, running backs Alvin Kamara and Ingram were held to a combined 45 rushing yards.
The Saints have the second-best offense in the NFL, averaging 391.2 yards per game, but It won’t be easy against the Vikings’ defense. As for New Orleans’ defense, DE Cam Jordan was a standout with a sack, two passes batted down, and a forced intentional grounding. Impressive. Brees may still be the man, but he is 1-4 in his career in playoff games on the road.
In their last playoff matchup, New Orleans defeated Minnesota, 31-28, in overtime in the NFC Championship Game in 2010 on Garrett Hartley’s 40-yard field goal. The Saints would go on to win their only Super Bowl.
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