Bing Predicts: NFL Playoffs Championship Round

January 17, 2018 by Houston Stebbins

An unwritten rule for most NFL teams allows for 24 hours to celebrate (or stew over) a result and then get back to work to prepare for the next opponent.

So while football fans were still wrapping their head around the Vikings’ last-second 29-24 win over the New Orleans Saints, now destined to be known as the “Minneapolis Miracle,” the Vikings were starting to think about playing the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday.

It took everything the Vikings had, and every second on the clock, but, as Bing predicted, Minnesota came out on top. It was one of Bing’s two correct picks from the four NFL divisional round games. Bing had favored the Atlanta Falcons over the Eagles, even though the game was at Philadelphia. It wasn’t an unreasonable guess, given the largely unknown quantity that was quarterback Nick Foles, who was starting for the injured Carson Wentz. The Eagles won 15-10.

Bing can be forgiven for failing to predict the Jaguars’ 45-42 win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Who knew quarterback Blake Bortles could lead the Jacksonville offense to 45 points against one of the NFL’s top defenses. The Steelers could have been overlooking the Jaguars, looking ahead to face the Patriots. Of course, that’s a chance they will not get, at least this season.

The Patriots’ win over the Tennessee Titans was the most ho-hum game of the weekend. Of course, Bing had favored New England. After all, never doubt quarterback Tom Brady, who won his 26th career playoff game.

Now Brady and his bunch, the defending Super Bowl champions, are heavily favored over the young, yet confident, Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Championship Game. Experience is typically a factor in the NFL postseason, which gives the Patriots a huge advantage.

The Vikings, who are favored on the road at Philadelphia, are one win away from becoming the first NFL team to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium. Again, not much faith in Nick Foles or his Eagles at home. It shouldn’t take a miracle for the Vikings to win in this round.

Bing’s NFL predictions use team and player statistics and web activity to build a statistical model that takes into account historical data and real-time information (like injuries, suspensions, and lineup changes). Finally, social sentiment adds a unique wisdom-of-the-crowd factor to the model. Learn more about Bing Predicts.

Click here to see all Bing weekly NFL predictions.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
> Bing Predicts winner:New England (75%)
> Kickoff time:3:05 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread:New England -9
> Postseason matchup history:Patriots lead 3-1

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New England:

Tom Brady once again finds himself in his comfort zone — the AFC Championship Game. It’s the Patriots’ seventh consecutive trip to the title game. Brady, coming off a 35-14 win over the Tennessee Titans, knows he’ll be under pressure from the Jaguars who had the NFL’s best pass defense during the regular season. He will be prepared because coach Bill Belichick will not allow the Patriots to overlook the upstart Jaguars. Brady and Belichick are 14-0 in playoff games against teams they did not face in the season.

On Boston radio station WEEI this week, Brady said the Jaguars are the “biggest challenge” they have faced all year. Of course, they know that PIttsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger passed for 469 yards and five touchdowns in the loss to the Jaguars. All the stats fall in Brady’s favor, including experience. He’s 5-0 in his career against the Jaguars with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. The 40-year-old quarterback has five more career playoff wins (26) than 25-year-old Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles has regular season wins (21).

It’s not all Brady, who threw three touchdown passes against the Titans. The Patriots also scored a pair of rushing touchdowns (Brandon Bolden and James White), while running back Dion Lewis scampered for 62 yards on 15 carries.

The Patriots’ defense, which is ranked fifth in points allowed in the regular season (18.5), will have to stop running back Leonard Fournette, a rookie built like a freight train. He had 109 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns in the win over the Steelers. The Patriots defense sacked Marcus Mariota eight times — Deatrich Wise and Geneo Grissom each had two. They held the Titans to 267 net yards and 33% on third-down conversions.

Jacksonville:

Hours after the Jaguars upset the Steelers, 45-42, on Sunday, cornerback Jalen Ramsey guaranteed the Jaguars are going to the Super Bowl and are going to win for the first time in the franchise history. That’s dandy, but first they have to get past the Patriots. The Jaguars haven’t been to the AFC Championship Game since Jan. 12, 1997, when they lost to the, you guessed it, the Patriots. To punch a ticket to the Super Bowl they have to beat the defending Super Bowl champions at home.

The fearless Jaguars are young, hungry, and confident — three perfect attributes for an underdog.

Much of their success comes from their defense, which not only had the best pass defense (allowing just 169.9 yards) in the regular season but was second in scoring defense, sacks, and turnovers. Defensive end Yannick Ngakoue led the team with six forced fumbles and was second in sacks — tied for eighth in the league — with 12. His strip sack of Ben Roethlisberger on Sunday was scooped up by linebacker Telvin Smith and returned 50 yards for a touchdown.

It’s not just Ngakoue, the defensive line features Calais Campbell (14.5 sacks), Malik Jackson, and Dante Fowler. The Patriots’ offensive line will have its hands full.

Quarterback Blake Bortles doesn’t have to be terrific, but he has to play his best and not turn the ball over. Against the Steelers, he completed just 53.8% of his passes for 214 yards and a touchdown. It was enough, barely. In the past four games, he’s thrown four touchdowns and five interceptions. In the previous three games, he threw seven touchdown passes and no interceptions. He’s consistently inconsistent.

The Jaguars can’t fall behind early because it would force them to go to the pass. Their bread and butter is the run game, featuring Fournette, who averages 80 rushing yards a game and is always a threat to break out a big run. His longest run from scrimmage was 90 yards this season. The less Bortles throws the ball, the better chance of success for the Jaguars. Still, they will need a miracle of their own to beat the Patriots.

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
> Bing Predicts winner:Minnesota (60%)
> Kickoff time: 6:40 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Minnesota -3.5
> Postseason matchup history:Eagles lead 3-0

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Minnesota:
The play called was “Seven Heaven.” With 10 seconds on the clock, all Vikings quarterback Case Keenum had to do was throw the ball to an open receiver and hope he could get out of bounds in time for a field goal attempt. Well, wide receiver Stefon Diggs made the play of the season, catching the ball and running it into the end zone for the game-winning touchdown. If this play doesn’t give a team confidence, nothing will.

Maybe it even exorcises the memories of Roger Staubach’s “Hail Mary” touchdown pass to Drew Pearson in Dallas’s fourth-quarter comeback victory over the Vikings in the division playoffs in 1975.

This year’s Vikings are on a mission to play the Super Bowl at home. They are one win away and favored on the road. Eagles, beware.

Keenum has been solid, leading the offense since Week 2 with 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions. On Sunday, Diggs had six catches for 137 yards, while wide receiver Adam Thielen also had six catches for 74 yards. Running backs Latavius Murray (19 carries, 50 yards) and Jerick McKinnon (8 catches, 34 yards) each scored a rushing touchdown. It’s a balanced offense that does not rattle, in part because of the leadership of Keenum. In the final 3:01 of play against the Saints the lead changed four times. The Vikings gave themselves a chance and it paid off.

The Vikings defense has much to do with winning the NFC North title and making it this far in the postseason. The defense was ranked first overall in the regular season, holding opponents to 275.9 yards per game while allowing just 15.8 points per game. It was also second in pass and rush defense. Against the Saints, linebacker Eric Kendricks had a team-high 10 tackles, while safety Harrison Smith and defensive end Everson Griffen each had a sack. Safety Andrew Sendejo and linebacker Anthony Barr each intercepted Drew Brees.

Philadelphia:

Eagles quarterback Nick Foles has the huge task of replacing Carson Wentz, who finished the season ranked second in passing touchdowns (33) even though he only played 13 games.

Foles led the Eagles to wins in two of their final three regular season games and then did just enough to beat the Falcons, 15-10, on Sunday. It was the Eagles first playoff win since 2009. Foles led drives of 74 and 80 yards in the second half, both of which resulted in Jake Elliott field goals. Foles completed a whopping 76.7% of his passes for 246 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. The offense got a huge boost from running back Jay Ajayi, who had 54 rushing yards along with three catches for 44 yards. Running back LeGarrette Blount had just 19 rushing yards but scored on a one-yard touchdown run in the second quarter.

The Eagles’ defense came up huge when it mattered. With less than two minutes left, on first-and-goal from the Philadelphia 9-yard-line, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan could not complete a pass, including a fourth-down attempt to Julio Jones in the end zone. The defense held Falcons’ running back Tevin Coleman to 79 yards and allowed Ryan to pass for 210 yards and just one touchdown. Philadelphia’s defense is first in the league against the rush, yielding just 79.2 yards per game. That defense will be tested against Keenum and the Vikings’ balanced attack.

The Eagles have the advantage of being at home where fans enjoy a brutal reputation that withstands time. (In case you haven’t heard, they once threw snowballs at Santa.) One inebriated Eagles fan punched a policeman and his horse — yes, his horse — prior to Saturday’s game. If they lose, it could be ugly for man and beast.

Philadelphia has never lost to the Vikings in postseason play, winning all three encounters.

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