Trump in Dead Heats With Biden and Sanders, Half of Voters “Silently” Support Trump

August 19, 2019 by Steven M. Peters

Source: Photo by Drew Angerer / Getty Images

24/7 Wall St.–Zogby Analytics Presidential Poll

  • Since our last poll, released May 14th, Trump has improved his position against Democratic frontrunners Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. He is in a statistical dead heat with each candidate.
  • The president is also narrowly defeating the second-tier candidates, senators Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren, and South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

The president has made in-roads with independents, suburban voters, urban men, and, urban parents, while increasing the level of support among his base — men, consumer blocs, older voters, and union voters.

Nearly half of all likely voters are “silent” Trump supporters. Half disagree (strongly and somewhat disagree combined) that they have to hide their support of the president on certain issues. This number has increased 9 percent since we last polled this topic.

Most groups who support the president agreed with the idea of privately supporting the president, but surprising, majorities of millennials, voters living in large cities, and Hispanics also felt compelled to hide their support for President Trump.

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: even though I tell people I do not approve of Donald Trump, I personally agree with him on certain issues. % US
Strongly agree 22%
Somewhat agree 27%
Somewhat disagree 16%
Strongly disagree 36%

Half (49%) of likely voters surveyed at least somewhat agreed they “tell people they do not approve of Donald Trump, but they personally agree with him on certain issues.” Conversely, slightly more than half disagreed they have to hide their support of President Trump. Zogby Analytics has been tracking this issue for some time and the amount of likely voters who believe they have to “silently” support Trump has increased to 49% from 40% in the last year.

Most sub-groups who typically support the president were more agreeable to the idea of hiding their support Trump but there were some surprises among the demographics we surveyed.

The groups most likely to “strongly and somewhat” agree they privately support Trump on certain issues were: likely voters living in the East (56% at least somewhat agree/44% at least somewhat disagree). Likely voters living in the West were more disagreeable (45% at least somewhat agree/55% at least somewhat disagree).

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Other groups who agreed they “silently” support the president included workers employed full time (55% agree/45% disagree), NASCAR fans (63% agree/37% disagree), union workers (63% agree/38% disagree), weekly Amazon shoppers (60% agree/40% disagree), weekly Walmart shoppers (56% agree/44% disagree), Hispanics (64% agree/36% disagree), NRA members (77% agree/23% disagree), investor class voters (60% agree/40% disagree), and self-identified creative class voters (57% agree/43% disagree).

There were differences in the level of agreement when it came to age, gender and where voters lived. A majority of millennials aged 18-29 (52% agree/48% disagree) agreed they support Trump on certain issues in private, while older voters aged 50-64 felt the opposite (43% agree/57% disagree). Men (54% agree/46% disagree) were more likely to feel compelled to hide their support for the president on certain issues than women (44% agree/56% disagree).

The sub-groups most likely to disagree with “silently” supporting Donald Trump were Democrats (69% disagree/31% agree), liberals (70% disagree/31% agree), voters divorced/widowed/separated (62% disagree/38% agree), and voters not in unions (53% disagree/47% agree).

If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden, whom would you vote for? % US
Republican Donald Trump 46
Democrat Joe Biden 45
Not sure 9

With Trump riding high on his latest job approval numbers (Zogby Analytics has him at 51% approve/47% disapprove on 8/15/19) and record high U.S. direction — 47% of likely voters surveyed, say the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” and 47% say it’s “off on the wrong track.”

The right direction number is the highest we have tracked in years. It’s an important indicator of how people feel about the overall health of the economy and society. Both figures could explain how Trump has tightened up polling in head-to-head races with his 2020 Democratic rivals. As of just a few months ago, our polling had Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders beating Trump by double digits, while Warren, Harris and Buttigieg were in closer races with Trump.

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Overall, Trump (46%) and Biden (45%) were statistically tied, while 9% of voters are not sure. Biden does well with voters under the age of 50, more specifically millennials age 18-29 — Biden wins 50% to 38%. Trump, on the other hand, wins with voters older than 50, more specifically, voters aged 65+ —Trump leads Biden 56% to 40%. There were no surprises when it came to gender. Biden wins with women (Biden leads 48% to 39%) and Trump wins with men (Trumps is ahead 53% to 42%).

Where Trump does his damage is he bests Biden with independents (Trump leads 44% to 36%), small-city voters (Trump leads 47% to 43%), suburban voters (Trump leads 45% to 44%) and both candidates are tied with large-city voters (Biden leads 46% to 45%). When it came to race, Biden wins with African Americans (Biden leads 74% to 21%), but both candidates do well with Hispanics (Biden leads 48% to 46%).

Biden and Trump were virtually tied in the East and South, while Trump won with likely voters in the central region (Trump leads 49% to 43%) and Biden convincingly won the West (Biden leads 48% to 41%).

Among unique sub-groups, President Trump won with consumers, such as weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 52% to 41%) and Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 54% to 43%). The president also dominated with NASCAR fans; 63% backed Trump, while 32% supported Biden. Biden did better with suburban women (Biden leads 50% to 35%).

If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders, who would you vote for? % US
Republican Donald Trump 45
Democrat Bernie Sanders 44
Not sure 11

President Donald Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) were statistically tied among likely voters nationwide. Sanders polled very well with suburban women (Sanders leads 45% to 36%) and Hispanics (Sanders leads 52% to 43%). The race between Sanders and Trump is tightly contested with other important sub-groups, such as independents (both tied at 39%), and large-city voters (both tied at 46%), which are groups Sanders has done very well with in recent polls and usually beats Trump among; our personal polling the last year and a half supports this finding.

Bernie Sanders follows the typical Democratic pattern when it comes to support among other sub-groups we normally track: he dominates with younger voters (Sanders received 66% support among Generation Z, those people born from 1995 to 2010), women (Sanders leads 46% to 39%), African Americans (Sanders leads 77% to 17%), suburban parents (Sanders leads 46% to 38%), medium-city voters (Sanders leads 53% to 38%), and small-city voter (Sanders leads 47% to 43%).

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Trump wins with men (Trump leads 52% to 41%); voters over 50; consumer blocs such as weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 52% to 40%), weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 54% to 41%), and NASCAR fans (Trump leads 64% to 29%); union voters (Trump leads 57% to 34%); suburban voters (Trump leads 46% to 40%); and urban parents (Trump leads 54% to 40%).

If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, who would you vote for? % US
Republican Donald Trump 44
Democrat Kamala Harris 42
Not sure 14

Trump is also in a tight race against Sen. Kamala Harris (D-California). The president wins 44% to 42%, while 14% are not sure. Similar to her rivals, Biden and Sanders, Harris does make in-roads with two important Democratic groups — millennials aged 18-29 (Harris leads 51% to 32%) and Generation Z voters aged 18-24 (Harris leads 56% to 26%). Harris does well with Hispanics (Harris leads 58% to 34%) and suburban women (Harris leads 46% to 37%). Interestingly, the race between Trump and Harris does tighten up among women (Harris leads Trump 42% to 39%).

Kamala Harris does not strike a chord with independents (Trump leads 41% to 35%). Trump also wins with his base of men (Trump leads 50% to 41%), older voters, weekly Amazon (Trump leads 51% to 43%) and Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 49% to 40%), NASCAR fans (Trump leads 60% to 32%), and union voters (Trump leads 53% to 37%). The president also fares well with small-city voters (Trump leads 46% to 40%), and suburban voters (Trump leads 45% to 40%).

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As for region, both Trump and Harris are tied in the East, while Trump wins in the South (Trump leads 47% to 40%) and Central/Great Lakes (Trump leads 48% to 38%), and Harris wins the West (Harris leads 49% to 36%).

If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Elizabeth Warren, who would you vote for? % US
Republican Donald Trump 45
Democrat Elizabeth Warren 43
Not sure 13

 

If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Pete Buttigieg, who would you vote for? % US
Republican Donald Trump 45
Democrat Pete Buttigieg 42
Not sure 14

When it came to how likely voters were going to vote in the 2020 presidential election, President Trump narrowly defeats Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) (Trump wins 45% to 43%) and South Bend Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (45% to 42%). Both Warren and Buttigieg connect with women, millennials and Generation Z voters, but not the way frontrunners Biden and Sanders do.

Both Warren and Buttigieg poll fewer than 50% with women; Warren receives less than 50% with millennials and Generation Z voters, while Buttigieg does receive a majority support among millennial and Generation Z voters when he is up against Trump.

On the other hand, both Warren and Buttigieg do chip away at support among two groups the president has improved among, mainly independents and urban men. Warren closes the gap with independents (Trump leads 41% to 36% and 24% not sure) when matched against Trump, and is statistically tied with Trump among urban men (Trump leads 46% to 45%). “Mayor Pete” does not fare so well with Independents (Trump leads 42% to 34%), but narrowly defeated Trump among urban men (Buttigieg wins 46% to 45%).

Methodology

Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 897 likely voters in the US 8/9/19 – 8/12/19.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.

Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 897 is +/- 3.3 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.

Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.

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