Teams Most Likely to Win the Super Bowl

August 28, 2019 by Grant Suneson

As the NFL season approaches, hope springs eternal for all 32 teams. Fans are optimistic about their favorite team, whether they’re the reigning champs or worst team in the league. But not all those hopes are realistic. Only a handful of teams have a legitimate shot at the Super Bowl.

24/7 Wall St. reviewed betting odds from sports books like MGM and Westgate and expert predictions from sources like USA Today to determine the teams that are most likely to win the Super Bowl this season.

The reality of the NFL is that only some teams really stand a chance at winning the Super Bowl. Many of the worst teams lack quality players and would need years to overhaul their roster. Some franchises are run by incompetent, cheap, or disinterested owners who can’t seem to manage a successful organization, leading to years of losing and a downtrodden fanbase. These are the hardest teams to root for.

The teams with almost no shot at the Super Bowl often have something in common — new head coaches. It can take time for a coach to establish the locker room culture and scheme they want, so little is expected from coaches in their first year. New coaches almost always take over losing teams once the owner decides the previous coach was not on the path to success. These are the teams that always fire their coaches.

Click here to see the teams that are most likely to win the Super Bowl.

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32. Miami Dolphins
> Avg. odds: 299/1
> 2018 record: 7-9
> Strength of schedule: 15th easiest
> Key addition: Josh Rosen

The Miami Dolphins are by far the biggest longshots to win Super Bowl LIV in 2020. The team has a new head coach in Brian Flores. He will have to choosing the team’s new starting quarterback. Veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick and second-year pro Josh Rosen have been battling for the job during the preseason. Both have subpar records as starting QBs, so Vegas oddsmakers and expert predictors believe it would take something miraculous for Miami to win a Super Bowl.

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31. Cincinnati Bengals
> Avg. odds: 175/1
> 2018 record: 6-10
> Strength of schedule: 2nd easiest (tied)
> Key addition: Zac Taylor

The Cincinnati Bengals are another team in flux, with rookie head coach Zac Taylor now at the helm. Though the Bengals are listed as having one of the easiest schedules of any team, their division rival Cleveland Browns are expected to be much improved and could make it difficult for the Bengals to even make it to the postseason.

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30. Washington Redskins
> Avg. odds: 166/1
> 2018 record: 7-9
> Strength of schedule: The easiest
> Key addition: Dwayne Haskins

Highly drafted rookie QBs give fanbases a reason for optimism, but Washington’s first round pick Dwayne Haskins will start the season on the bench. Journeyman Case Keenum beat Haskins for the starting QB spot going into 2019. Keenum won’t have much help winning games, though, as the Redskins had just two Pro Bowl players last year. One of them, Trent Williams, is holding out from training camp, and seems determined to play for a different team in 2019.

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29. Arizona Cardinals
> Avg. odds: 148/1
> 2018 record: 3-13
> Strength of schedule: 12th hardest (tied)
> Key addition: Kyler Murray

The Arizona Cardinals’ 2018 season was a disaster. The team finished with the worst record in the NFL, then used its first overall pick to select QB Kyler Murray. The team also has a new head coach in Kliff Kingsbury. Cardinals fans will hope the success these two found at the college level will translate into the pros, but it may take years for the offense to gel. No rookie quarterback has ever started a Super Bowl, much less won it, and experts believe that the Cardinals hold relatively little chance of being the first to make it happen.

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28. New York Giants
> Avg. odds: 138.2/1
> 2018 record: 5-11
> Strength of schedule: 2nd easiest (tied)
> Key addition: Daniel Jones

After a dismal 2018 season, the New York Giants could be even worse in 2019. The team traded away superstar wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns, which will make things even more difficult for 38-year-old QB Eli manning, who’s coming off one of his worst seasons as a pro. If he struggles to start the season, expect Giants fans to call for rookie QB Daniel Jones to start.

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27. Detroit Lions
> Avg. odds: 84/1
> 2018 record: 6-10
> Strength of schedule: 12th easiest (tied)
> Key addition: Trey Flowers

After a 6-10 2018 season, the Detroit Lions were active in free agency. An infusion of new talent could prime the team for future success, but they may struggle to find wins in 2019. Their division foes — the Packers, Bears, and Vikings — are all projected to be winning teams and even serious Super Bowl contenders.

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26. Oakland Raiders
> Avg. odds: 74.2/1
> 2018 record: 4-12
> Strength of schedule: The hardest
> Key addition: Clelin Ferrell

With three 2019 first-round draft picks, the Oakland Raiders are looking to fast-track their rebuild. Defensive end Clelin Ferrell and safety Jonathan Abraham will look to improve the NFL’s worst scoring defense. But that could be a tall order, especially given that Oakland will face the league’s toughest schedule.

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25. Buffalo Bills
> Avg. odds: 92/1
> 2018 record: 6-10
> Strength of schedule: 9th easiest
> Key addition: Cole Beasley

After a 6-10 2018 season, the Buffalo Bills remain a work in progress. The team signed a bevy of offensive weapons — including wide receivers John Brown and Cole Beasley and running backs T.J. Yeldon and Frank Gore — to help second year QB Josh Allen. Allen will need to prove he was worth a seventh overall pick after throwing 12 interceptions compared to just 10 TDs in his rookie season.

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24. Denver Broncos
> Avg. odds: 79.2/1
> 2018 record: 6-10
> Strength of schedule: 2nd hardest
> Key addition: Joe Flacco

Since Peyton Manning retired, the Denver Broncos have been searching for their quarterback of the future. They may have found it in Joe Flacco. The long-time Baltimore Raven hopes to revitalize the Broncos offense, but Denver may be hard pressed to find a playoff spot as their division rivals, the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs, look to be two of the strongest teams in the NFL in 2019.

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23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Avg. odds: 86/1
> 2018 record: 5-11
> Strength of schedule: 12th hardest (tied)
> Key addition: Bruce Arians

It is hard to win a Super Bowl without a good quarterback. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers thought they had a franchise QB in Jameis Winston, but the former first overall pick has struggled with turnovers and was benched for much of 2018. If new coach Bruce Arians can’t get Winston to live up to his potential in his fifth season, it could be a long 2019 in Tampa.

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22. New York Jets
> Avg. odds: 65/1
> 2018 record: 4-12
> Strength of schedule: 2nd easiest (tied)
> Key addition: Le’Veon Bell

The Jets appear to be a team on the rise, led by 2018’s third overall pick Sam Darnold. If Darnold can play up to his capability in 2019, the Jets can have a much better season than 2018, when they went 4-12. But new coach Adam Gase had a losing record in his three years at the helm in Miami, and it may be too much to expect a Super Bowl from a team that was so bad so recently.

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21. Carolina Panthers
> Avg. odds: 45.6/1
> 2018 record: 7-9
> Strength of schedule: 16th hardest (tied)
> Key addition: Bruce Irvin

The Carolina Panthers finished 2018 with a middling 7-9 record thanks to a mediocre offense and defense, which ranked 14th and 19th in points that season, respectively. Oddsmakers and experts see little to indicate that the Panthers will greatly improve on their previous season’s performance in 2019.

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20. Tennessee Titans
> Avg. odds: 47/1
> 2018 record: 9-7
> Strength of schedule: 9th hardest
> Key addition: Cameron Wake

The Tennessee Titans have posted a 9-7 record in each of the last three seasons. But oddsmakers and experts expect the team to take a step back in 2019. Marcus Mariota, the Titans’ QB since 2015, has yet to show the improvement fans have hoped for, though he has struggled with injuries. The Titans will hope their new offensive linemen Rodger Saffold and Kevin Pamphile will keep him healthy in 2019.

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19. Indianapolis Colts
> Avg. odds: 54/1
> 2018 record: 10-6
> Strength of schedule: 7th hardest (tied)
> Key addition: Justin Houston

Ahead of the 2019 season, the Indianapolis Colts were projected to be one of the top Super Bowl contending teams. Then QB Andrew Luck retired at age 29, throwing the team’s season into disarray. Barring a trade, Jacoby Brissett is slated to start for the Colts at QB. He filled in for Luck when he missed the 2017 season with an injury, leading the Colts to a 4-12 record.

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18. Baltimore Ravens
> Avg. odds: 35/1
> 2018 record: 10-6
> Strength of schedule: 12th easiest (tied)

The Baltimore Ravens won their division on the strength of their top-rated defense last season. But with players like C.J. Mosley, Terrell Suggs, and Za’Darius Smith departing via free agency, the team could take a step backward. The Ravens’ season will hinge on the performance of second year QB Lamar Jackson, who will begin the season as the unquestioned starter for the first time.

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17. San Francisco 49ers
> Avg. odds: 36.8/1
> 2018 record: 4-12
> Strength of schedule: 11th hardest
> Key addition: Kwon Alexander

The San Francisco 49ers 2018 season became a lost cause after starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL early in the season. It is difficult to know what to expect from a player coming off that kind of injury, but oddsmakers seem to think Jimmy G will be at least serviceable, putting San Francisco’s Super Bowl chances towards the middle of the pack, relative to other teams.

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16. Houston Texans
> Avg. odds: 27.6/1
> 2018 record: 11-5
> Strength of schedule: 4th hardest
> Key addition: Matt Kalil

Despite their strong 2018 season, the Houston Texans are getting little attention as potential Super Bowl contenders. The team’s hopes hinge on the safety of quarterback Deshaun Watson, who was sacked more than any other QB in the NFL last season. The Texans’ Super Bowl hopes took a hit when starting running back Lamar Miller tore his ACL in preseason, ending his 2019 season before it began.

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15. Atlanta Falcons
> Avg. odds: 31/1
> 2018 record: 7-9
> Strength of schedule: 7th hardest (tied)
> Key addition: Adrian Clayborn

Though the Atlanta Falcons had one of the worst defenses in the NFL in 2018, they did very little to address that in the draft or through free agency. Still, some experts are predicting a bounce back season after a 7-9 2018, and oddsmakers believe the Falcons are not among the upper echelon of Super Bowl contenders.

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14. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Avg. odds: 28.2/1
> 2018 record: 5-11
> Strength of schedule: 3rd hardest
> Key addition: Nick Foles

After winning the AFC South in 2017, the Jags plummeted to last place in the division the next season. While the defense was terrific both seasons, the offense took a major step back in 2018. Jacksonville will hope new QB Nick Foles can improve things, but he will face a major challenge as his team will have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL.

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13. Seattle Seahawks
> Avg. odds: 32/1
> 2018 record: 10-6
> Strength of schedule: 8th easiest
> Key addition: Ezekiel Ansah

The Seattle Seahawks lost several key players from their strong 2018 season. Star defenders Earl Thomas and Frank Clark will play elsewhere in 2019, and wide receiver Doug Baldwin unexpectedly retired due to injuries. With Russell Wilson under center, the team has a chance to win any game, but it may lack the star power it once had in its back-to-back Super Bowl appearances.

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12. Dallas Cowboys
> Avg. odds: 21/1
> 2018 record: 10-6
> Strength of schedule: 14th hardest (tied)
> Key addition: Robert Quinn

After a 10-6 2018 season, offseason issues have threatened to derail the Dallas Cowboys’ 2019 season before it even begins. Star running back Ezekiel Elliott has refused to go to training camp in search of a new contract, and he may not be back in time for the season. But with a stout defense, the Cowboys could have a terrific season if Elliott ends up playing.

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11. Green Bay Packers
> Avg. odds: 19.4/1
> 2018 record: 6-9
> Strength of schedule: 14th hardest (tied)
> Key addition: Matt LaFleur

With Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the Packers will have decent a chance to win every game they play. But the question in Green Bay for the 2019 season is whether new head coach Matt LaFleur can get Rodgers back to his MVP-level form. The Packers shored up their defense in the offseason, signing edge rushers Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith as well as safety Adrian Amos.

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10. Minnesota Vikings
> Avg. odds: 22.4/1
> 2018 record: 8-7
> Strength of schedule: 10th hardest
> Key addition: Irv Smith Jr.

After narrowly missing out on the playoffs in 2018, the Minnesota Vikings could make a deep postseason run in 2019. The Vikings had a solid defense, but the offense struggled to score points. QB Kirk Cousins had the highest salary in the NFL in 2018. If he can live up to his massive contract in 2019, the Vikings will be serious Super Bowl contenders.

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9. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Avg. odds: 19/1
> 2018 record: 9-6
> Strength of schedule: 12th easiest (tied)
> Key addition: Devin Bush Jr.

In the 2018 season, much of the talk around the Steelers focused on wide receiver Antonio Brown’s feud with the team and subsequent trade. Going into 2019, the Steelers retooled their defense with several free agent signings and first round draft pick Devin Bush. With two-time Super Bowl champ Ben Roethlisberger at QB, the Steelers could be title contenders again.

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8. Cleveland Browns
> Avg. odds: 15.6/1
> 2018 record: 7-8
> Strength of schedule: 10th easiest
> Key addition: Odell Beckham Jr.

The Cleveland Browns have been the talk of the NFL going into the 2019 season after 2018’s top overall draft pick QB Baker Mayfield impressed at the end of the previous season. With new superstar wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., the Browns could end their 16-season playoff drought.

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7. Los Angeles Rams
> Avg. odds: 11.3/1
> 2018 record: 13-3
> Strength of schedule: 2nd easiest (tied)
> Key addition: Eric Weddle

Though oddsmakers are giving the defending NFC champions a good shot at winning Super Bowl LIV, experts think the Rams could take a step back in 2019. Despite adding veteran defenders Eric Weddle and Clay Matthews in the offseason, the team had several key losses, may have a Super Bowl hangover to deal with, and the health of todd Gurley may also hold the team back.

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6. Chicago Bears
> Avg. odds: 14/1
> 2018 record: 12-4
> Strength of schedule: 5th hardest (tied)
> Key addition: Haha Clinton-Dix

The Chicago Bears seemed poised to make a deep playoff run in 2018, but their season came to a heartbreaking end with a missed field goal. Chicago could be even better than they were the year before — they are returning much of their 2018 defense, which surrendered the fewest points in the NFL, and are counting on a breakout third season from QB Mitchell Trubisky.

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5. Philadelphia Eagles
> Avg. odds: 12.6/1
> 2018 record: 9-7
> Strength of schedule: 7th easiest
> Key addition: DeSean Jackson

After winning the Super Bowl two seasons ago, the Philadelphia Eagles have established themselves as one of the best teams in the NFL. Much of the Eagles’ Super Bowl hopes depend on whether QB Carson Wentz can stay healthy, unlike the last two seasons. Wentz will have a new top target in free agent acquisition DeSean Jackson.

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4. New Orleans Saints
> Avg. odds: 10.2/1
> 2018 record: 13-3
> Strength of schedule: 11th easiest
> Key addition: Jared Cook

The New Orleans Saints were one blown pass interference call away from making it to the Super Bowl last season, and the team is looking to come back strong. The Saints are likely to reach the playoffs with an easy schedule, and led by one-time Super Bowl MVP Drew Brees, they have a good chance to win the Super Bowl.

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3. Los Angeles Chargers
> Avg. odds: 16/1
> 2018 record: 12-4
> Strength of schedule: 16th hardest (tied)
> Key addition: Thomas Davis

Oddsmakers don’t consider the Los Angeles Chargers one of the five most likely teams to win the Super Bowl. But expert NFL analysts think L.A. has the right mix of veteran leadership on offense with QB Philip Rivers and young talent on defense with Joey Bosa to challenge and even win the Super Bowl.

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2. Kansas City Chiefs
> Avg. odds: 6.7/1
> 2018 record: 12-4
> Strength of schedule: 5th hardest (tied)
> Key addition: Frank Clark

QB Patrick Mahomes dominated NFL defenses in his first year as a starter with the Chiefs. But his own defense will need to play better for Kansas City to win the Super Bowl. While the Chiefs’ offense scored more than any other in 2018, the defense was among the worst. To address this, KC brought in a bevy of new defensive players, including Tyrann Mathieu, Frank Clark, and Alex Okafor.

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1. New England Patriots
> Avg. odds: 6.5/1
> 2018 record: 11-5
> Strength of schedule: 2nd easiest (tied)
> Key addition: Demaryius Thomas

The defending champion New England Patriots show no signs of slowing down. After Rob Gronkowski retired, the Pats reloaded with new wideout Demaryius Thomas. If those players can perform, and New England’s defense continues to excel, it may be tough to stop the Pats from repeating as Super Bowl champs.