Special Report

States That Will Grow the Most by 2040

Each year, millions of Americans pack up and move to a new state – either for a job, family reasons, a change of climate, or any number of other reasons. Migration, in addition to natural population change resulting from births and deaths, can cause significant demographic shifts.

In just the last 30 years, New York went from being the second most populous state to being the fourth most populous, after being surpassed by Texas in 1994 and Florida in 2014. These shifts reflect broader trends. The states with the fastest growing populations between 2010 and 2020, tended to be located in the South and in the West. Meanwhile, over the same period, the states with the slowest population growth were disproportionately located in the Northeast. Here is a look at where people from New York state are moving the most. 

According to a study published by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia, these trends show no signs of slowing in the coming decades. 

Using population projections from the Cooper Center at UVA, 24/7 Wall St. identified the states that will grow the most by the year 2040. States are ranked by population change between 2020 and 2040, from smallest to largest. 

According to the study, the population of 11 states, mostly in the West, will grow in excess of 20% by 2040, while nine mostly Northeastern states will be home to fewer people in 2040 than now. 

These demographic shifts can have significant consequences for local economies and governments. Negative or slow population growth can lead to weaker economic growth and fewer economic opportunities – which in turn can push more people out of a given state. Population decline can also mean reduced revenue for state governments and limited funding for public works and services and reduced ability to meet budgetary obligations. Here is a look at the states collecting the most in income tax

Click here to see the states that will grow the most in the next 20 years

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