Special Report

Countries on Track to Shrink the Most This Century

rockdrigo68 / iStock Editorial via Getty Images

The world’s population continues to grow and stands at 7.93 billion people as of March 21. The annual number of births outstrips the yearly death total by almost 18 million people

The population on the continents of Africa and Asia is growing the fastest. But even in those areas, there are nations whose populations are declining.

To determine the countries that will shrink the most in the 21st century, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed data on population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau’s International Programs Center. Countries were ranked based on the percentage change in projected population from 2022 to 2100.

A shrinking and aging demographic has dire consequences for a nation, straining healthcare and social-support systems, and damaging its competitiveness.

Every country on the list has a projected population decline of at least 33% by 2100. Only eight nations on the list have a crude birth rate of more than 10 people per 1,000. 

Of the 15 European nations on the list, 14 of them are either former republics of the Soviet Union, or countries that comprised the former Soviet bloc before the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Many young people from eastern Europe have fled to western Europe and beyond for better economic opportunities. Estonia, one of the Baltic nations on the list and formerly under the thumb of the Soviet Union, is the only country on the list with net migration of more than 1.0 per 1,000 residents. 

Despite the fact that they have some of the world’s largest economies, the Asian nations of China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan are all losing population. China, still reeling from the consequences from its disastrous decades-long one-child policy, may be overtaken by India within the next three years, according to some estimates. Japan’s population slide is tied to unfavorable demographics. A declining birth rate and the longevity of its elderly have made the country the oldest in the world, with 35.9 million people, or 28% of the population, 65 years old or older.

Even though Caribbean islands like Dominica and St. Lucia, and Pacific locations such as the Cook Islands and Federated States of Micronesia, might be exotic getaways, they are all suffering population declines.

Click here to see the countries on track to shrink the most this century
Click here to read our detailed methodology

Sean Pavone / iStock via Getty Images

25. Cuba
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -33.4% (-3.7 million people)
> Current population: 11.0 million
> Crude birth rate: 10.0 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: -1.3 per 1,000 residents

[in-text-ad]

XIUYUAN YAO / iStock via Getty Images

24. China
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -33.8% (-477.4 million people)
> Current population: 1.4 billion
> Crude birth rate: 10.5 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: -0.3 per 1,000 residents

NAPA74 / iStock via Getty Images

23. Dominica
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -35.3% (-26,311 people)
> Current population: 74,629
> Crude birth rate: N/A
> Annual net migration: N/A

Myroslava / iStock via Getty Images

22. Mauritius
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -36.2% (-472,998 people)
> Current population: 1.3 million
> Crude birth rate: 10.2 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: N/A

[in-text-ad-2]

xbrchx / iStock via Getty Images

21. Croatia
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -36.4% (-1.5 million people)
> Current population: 4.2 million
> Crude birth rate: 8.9 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: -1.9 per 1,000 residents

SeanPavonePhoto / iStock via Getty Images

20. South Korea
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -37.2% (-19.3 million people)
> Current population: 51.8 million
> Crude birth rate: 5.9 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: +0.2 per 1,000 residents

[in-text-ad]

frankpeters / iStock via Getty Images

19. Romania
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -38.1% (-7.0 million people)
> Current population: 18.5 million
> Crude birth rate: 9.6 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: -3.7 per 1,000 residents

komyvgory / iStock via Getty Images

18. Ukraine
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -38.4% (-16.7 million people)
> Current population: 43.5 million
> Crude birth rate: 8.1 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: +0.2 per 1,000 residents

emicristea / iStock via Getty Images

17. Montenegro
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -38.6% (-233,684 people)
> Current population: 604,966
> Crude birth rate: 11.7 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: -0.8 per 1,000 residents

[in-text-ad-2]

gbarm / iStock via Getty Images

16. Andorra
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -40.1% (-34,317 people)
> Current population: 85,560
> Crude birth rate: 7.0 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: N/A

guruXOOX / iStock via Getty Images

15. Serbia
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -40.2% (-2.7 million people)
> Current population: 6.7 million
> Crude birth rate: 9.3 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: +0.6 per 1,000 residents

[in-text-ad]

fenlio / iStock via Getty Images

14. Taiwan
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -40.5% (-9.5 million people)
> Current population: 23.6 million
> Crude birth rate: N/A
> Annual net migration: N/A

Xantana / iStock via Getty Images

13. Poland
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -40.5% (-15.4 million people)
> Current population: 38.1 million
> Crude birth rate: 9.9 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: -0.8 per 1,000 residents

Mlenny / iStock via Getty Images

12. Albania
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -40.8% (-1.3 million people)
> Current population: 3.1 million
> Crude birth rate: 11.6 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: -4.9 per 1,000 residents

[in-text-ad-2]

kanonsky / iStock via Getty Images

11. Japan
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -41.3% (-51.3 million people)
> Current population: 124.2 million
> Crude birth rate: 7.0 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: +0.6 per 1,000 residents

Nikolay Pandev / E+ via Getty Images

10. Bulgaria
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -42.0% (-2.9 million people)
> Current population: 6.9 million
> Crude birth rate: 8.8 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: -0.7 per 1,000 residents

[in-text-ad]

NAPA74 / iStock via Getty Images

9. Saint Lucia
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -43.3% (-72,342 people)
> Current population: 167,122
> Crude birth rate: 11.8 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: N/A

ewg3D / E+ via Getty Images

8. Lithuania
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -43.9% (-1.2 million people)
> Current population: 2.7 million
> Crude birth rate: 9.8 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: -11.3 per 1,000 residents

Greg Sullavan / iStock via Getty Images

7. Bosnia and Herzegovina
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -44.4% (-1.7 million people)
> Current population: 3.8 million
> Crude birth rate: 7.9 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: -6.3 per 1,000 residents

[in-text-ad-2]

DarrenTierney / iStock via Getty Images

6. Cook Islands
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -48.3% (-3,926 people)
> Current population: 8,128
> Crude birth rate: N/A
> Annual net migration: N/A

Xantana / iStock via Getty Images

5. Estonia
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -48.3% (-585,715 people)
> Current population: 1.2 million
> Crude birth rate: 10.6 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: +3.0 per 1,000 residents

[in-text-ad]

Laszlo Mates / Getty Images

4. Federated States of Micronesia
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -51.4% (-51,875 people)
> Current population: 101,009
> Crude birth rate: 22.7 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: -5.5 per 1,000 residents

Calin Stan / Getty Images

3. Moldova
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -55.0% (-1.8 million people)
> Current population: 3.3 million
> Crude birth rate: 9.9 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: -0.5 per 1,000 residents

Marcus Lindstrom / E+ via Getty Images

2. Latvia
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -55.0% (-1.0 million people)
> Current population: 1.8 million
> Crude birth rate: 9.8 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: -7.5 per 1,000 residents

[in-text-ad-2]

Ozbalci / iStock via Getty Images

1. Armenia
> Projected decline, 2022 to 2100: -56.9% (-1.7 million people)
> Current population: 3.0 million
> Crude birth rate: 13.6 per 1,000 people
> Annual net migration: -1.7 per 1,000 residents

Methodology

To determine the countries that will shrink the most in the 21st century, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed data on population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau’s International Programs Center. Countries were ranked based on the percentage change in projected population from 2022 to 2100. Supplemental data on the crude birth rate is from the World Bank and is for the year 2019. Data on net migration for the period 2013 to 2017 came from the World Bank and was adjusted for population using data from the World Bank.

Get Ready To Retire (Sponsored)

Start by taking a quick retirement quiz from SmartAsset that will match you with up to 3 financial advisors that serve your area and beyond in 5 minutes, or less.

Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests.

Here’s how it works:
1. Answer SmartAsset advisor match quiz
2. Review your pre-screened matches at your leisure. Check out the advisors’ profiles.
3. Speak with advisors at no cost to you. Have an introductory call on the phone or introduction in person and choose whom to work with in the future

Get started right here.

Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.