Special Report

COVID-19: This Is the Worst Hot Spot in Virginia

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The U.S. has reported more than 32.0 million confirmed COVID-19 cases as of May 4, 2021. More than 570,000 Americans have died of COVID-19 — the highest death toll of any country.

The virus has spread throughout the country in a way that has been difficult to predict, surging in one region, then showing signs of improvement, and then reappearing in other regions. Though local outbreaks may ebb and flow, the current surge in cases has been felt nearly nationwide, leading to new travel restrictions and business closures around the country.

Nationwide, there were an average of 15.6 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans in the week ending May 4, 2021. Cumulatively, the U.S. has reported 9,806.5 cases per 100,000 Americans, and 174.8 deaths per 100,000 Americans.

The extent of the spread of the novel coronavirus continues to vary considerably from state to state, and even from county to county. Even as the number of daily new cases is flattening or even declining in some parts of the country, new cases are surging at a growing rate in others.

The coronavirus has spread to different parts of the country in different stages throughout the pandemic. In the spring, the worst hit states were in the Northeast, as New York City became the epicenter of the nation’s crisis. The virus spread to states throughout the Sun Belt in the summer, and hit states in the Midwest and West during the fall. By November 2020, nearly every state was categorized as a COVID-19 hot spot, according to definitions based on new cases per capita from the nonprofit health organization Kaiser Family Foundation.

In Virginia, there were an average of 12.3 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 residents in the week ending May 4, 2021. The Virginia case growth rate ranks as the 20th lowest of all 50 states.

While the nation’s largest counties were hit hardest in the early months of the pandemic, nearly every county has suffered from the coronavirus. Outbreaks can occur quickly in places where large numbers of people tend to congregate, leaving counties with colleges, correctional facilities, and nursing homes particularly at risk.

In Caroline County, there were an average of 53.2 new confirmed cases per day per 100,000 residents in the week ending May 4, 2021 — the highest rate of any county in Virginia. Since the pandemic began, the county has reported 2,555 confirmed cases, or 8,464.7 cases per 100,000.

There have been 35 deaths, or 116.0 deaths per 100,000 residents.

To determine the county in each state with the highest rate of daily cases of the virus, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked counties according to the average new number of cases per 100,000 residents per day during the week ending May 4, 2021. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates.

These are all the counties in Virginia where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).

No. County Population New daily cases per 100,000 Total cases Total deaths Cases per 100,000 Deaths per 100,000
1 Caroline County 30,184 53.2 2,555 35 8,464.7 116.0
2 Galax city 6,638 48.0 1,155 51 17,399.8 768.3
3 Fluvanna County 26,282 47.1 1,904 17 7,244.5 64.7
4 Norton city 3,990 34.8 283 7 7,092.7 175.4
5 Smyth County 31,059 33.2 2,890 91 9,304.9 293.0
6 Bristol city 16,843 33.1 1,465 33 8,698.0 195.9
7 Wythe County 28,940 26.6 2,604 78 8,997.9 269.5
8 Petersburg city 31,827 26.3 3,812 84 11,977.3 263.9
9 Warren County 39,449 25.5 2,907 55 7,369.0 139.4
10 Fredericksburg city 28,469 25.4 2,093 23 7,351.9 80.8
11 Grayson County 15,811 24.3 1,444 34 9,132.9 215.0
12 King William County 16,497 23.8 1,197 11 7,255.9 66.7
13 Cumberland County 9,786 23.1 473 9 4,833.4 92.0
14 Shenandoah County 43,045 23.0 4,260 130 9,896.6 302.0
15 Carroll County 29,738 23.0 2,603 69 8,753.1 232.0
16 Hopewell city 22,408 22.8 2,559 71 11,420.0 316.9
17 Prince George County 37,894 22.1 3,489 27 9,207.3 71.3
18 Richmond County 8,878 21.4 1,492 15 16,805.6 169.0
19 Alleghany County 15,286 20.7 1,336 48 8,740.0 314.0
20 Giles County 16,814 20.0 1,257 21 7,475.9 124.9
21 Colonial Heights city 17,593 20.0 1,682 61 9,560.6 346.7
22 Buena Vista city 6,399 19.8 897 19 14,017.8 296.9
23 Frederick County 85,153 19.4 7,847 100 9,215.2 117.4
24 Radford city 17,630 18.1 2,112 18 11,979.6 102.1
25 Spotsylvania County 131,412 17.9 9,733 115 7,406.5 87.5
26 Stafford County 144,012 17.7 11,106 75 7,711.9 52.1
27 Amelia County 12,854 17.6 881 31 6,853.9 241.2
28 Orange County 35,612 17.6 2,165 39 6,079.4 109.5
29 Washington County 54,406 17.5 4,838 106 8,892.4 194.8
30 Page County 23,749 17.3 2,011 57 8,467.7 240.0
31 Danville city 41,512 17.3 4,348 134 10,474.1 322.8
32 Pulaski County 34,234 16.6 2,612 61 7,629.8 178.2
33 Portsmouth city 95,311 16.6 8,926 188 9,365.1 197.2
34 Craig County 5,113 16.4 309 5 6,043.4 97.8
35 Lynchburg city 80,131 15.5 7,625 146 9,515.7 182.2
36 Salem city 25,519 15.2 2,134 47 8,362.4 184.2
37 Chesterfield County 339,447 14.6 27,290 423 8,039.5 124.6
38 Lexington city 7,110 14.4 1,171 32 16,469.8 450.1
39 Wise County 39,025 14.3 3,127 96 8,012.8 246.0
40 Chesapeake city 237,820 14.3 20,674 289 8,693.1 121.5
41 Virginia Beach city 450,135 14.3 35,470 386 7,879.9 85.8
42 Henrico County 325,642 14.2 25,038 602 7,688.8 184.9
43 Newport News city 180,145 14.2 13,794 224 7,657.2 124.3
44 Mecklenburg County 30,847 14.1 2,270 66 7,358.9 214.0
45 Waynesboro city 21,926 14.1 2,347 38 10,704.2 173.3
46 Rappahannock County 7,332 13.9 347 2 4,732.7 27.3
47 Lunenburg County 12,278 13.8 761 13 6,198.1 105.9
48 Prince William County 456,749 13.5 44,663 482 9,778.5 105.5
49 Hampton city 135,583 13.5 10,275 172 7,578.4 126.9
50 Campbell County 55,170 13.5 4,407 84 7,988.0 152.3
51 Harrisonburg city 53,391 13.2 6,458 95 12,095.7 177.9
52 Goochland County 22,482 13.1 1,434 23 6,378.4 102.3
53 Louisa County 35,380 13.0 1,954 32 5,522.9 90.4
54 Hanover County 104,449 13.0 8,000 154 7,659.2 147.4
55 Manassas Park city 16,423 12.9 1,214 12 7,392.1 73.1
56 Tazewell County 42,080 12.9 3,592 67 8,536.1 159.2
57 Loudoun County 385,143 12.8 27,391 274 7,111.9 71.1
58 Prince Edward County 22,956 12.8 2,125 34 9,256.8 148.1
59 Norfolk city 245,592 12.7 17,401 254 7,085.3 103.4
60 Westmoreland County 17,638 12.7 1,265 24 7,172.0 136.1
61 Clarke County 14,365 12.6 967 19 6,731.6 132.3
62 Suffolk city 89,160 12.3 7,834 186 8,786.5 208.6
63 Montgomery County 97,997 12.2 9,292 91 9,481.9 92.9
64 Powhatan County 28,574 11.8 1,891 16 6,617.9 56.0
65 Winchester city 27,789 11.8 2,826 44 10,169.5 158.3
66 Charles City County 6,995 11.7 498 15 7,119.4 214.4
67 Sussex County 11,486 11.5 1,182 21 10,290.8 182.8
68 Patrick County 17,859 11.5 1,339 43 7,497.6 240.8
69 Rockingham County 79,444 11.5 6,689 105 8,419.8 132.2
70 New Kent County 21,103 11.4 1,480 16 7,013.2 75.8
71 Buckingham County 17,004 11.0 2,119 30 12,461.8 176.4
72 Culpeper County 50,450 10.8 4,550 61 9,018.8 120.9
73 Fauquier County 69,115 10.7 4,631 64 6,700.4 92.6
74 Richmond city 223,787 10.7 16,823 257 7,517.4 114.8
75 King George County 25,890 10.6 1,662 19 6,419.5 73.4
76 York County 67,587 10.6 3,697 52 5,470.0 76.9
77 Scott County 22,009 10.6 1,809 52 8,219.4 236.3
78 Isle of Wight County 36,372 10.2 3,114 66 8,561.5 181.5
79 Charlotte County 12,095 10.1 843 18 6,969.8 148.8
80 Albemarle County 106,355 10.0 5,708 83 5,366.9 78.0
81 Greensville County 11,659 10.0 1,569 25 13,457.4 214.4
82 Franklin city 8,211 9.9 1,132 32 13,786.4 389.7
83 Bath County 4,393 9.8 270 10 6,146.1 227.6
84 Greene County 19,410 9.7 1,243 17 6,403.9 87.6
85 Augusta County 74,701 9.6 5,727 70 7,666.6 93.7
86 Arlington County 231,803 9.5 15,121 252 6,523.2 108.7
87 Rockbridge County 22,509 9.5 1,513 46 6,721.8 204.4
88 Bland County 6,447 9.5 669 10 10,376.9 155.1
89 Amherst County 31,882 9.3 2,907 35 9,118.0 109.8
90 Roanoke County 93,583 9.1 8,139 139 8,697.1 148.5
91 Bedford County 77,908 9.1 6,275 99 8,054.4 127.1
92 James City County 74,153 9.0 4,556 72 6,144.1 97.1
93 Fairfax County 1,143,529 9.0 75,942 1,073 6,641.0 93.8
94 Alexandria city 156,505 8.9 11,671 133 7,457.3 85.0
95 Accomack County 32,742 8.9 2,812 41 8,588.4 125.2
96 Covington city 5,582 8.8 591 13 10,587.6 232.9
97 Pittsylvania County 61,676 8.8 5,493 78 8,906.2 126.5
98 Southampton County 17,939 8.8 1,970 56 10,981.7 312.2
99 Roanoke city 99,621 8.7 8,377 190 8,408.9 190.7
100 Martinsville city 13,101 8.7 1,583 76 12,083.0 580.1
101 Madison County 13,139 8.7 608 16 4,627.4 121.8
102 Surry County 6,600 8.7 421 9 6,378.8 136.4
103 Dinwiddie County 28,308 8.3 2,099 42 7,414.9 148.4
104 Appomattox County 15,577 8.0 1,583 24 10,162.4 154.1
105 Buchanan County 22,138 7.6 1,410 38 6,369.1 171.7
106 Staunton city 24,452 7.5 2,503 70 10,236.4 286.3
107 Russell County 27,408 7.4 2,244 38 8,187.4 138.6
108 Northampton County 11,957 7.2 797 36 6,665.6 301.1
109 Halifax County 34,779 7.0 2,782 77 7,999.1 221.4
110 Nottoway County 15,500 7.0 1,900 48 12,258.1 309.7
111 Floyd County 15,666 6.9 845 21 5,393.8 134.0
112 Williamsburg city 14,788 6.6 758 12 5,125.8 81.1
113 Brunswick County 16,665 6.2 1,298 21 7,788.8 126.0
114 Falls Church city 14,067 6.2 423 9 3,007.0 64.0
115 Botetourt County 33,222 5.8 2,504 36 7,537.2 108.4
116 Manassas city 41,457 5.7 4,304 47 10,381.8 113.4
117 Henry County 51,588 5.7 4,498 121 8,719.1 234.6
118 Gloucester County 37,161 5.5 2,180 48 5,866.4 129.2
119 Essex County 11,036 5.0 753 9 6,823.1 81.6
120 Franklin County 56,233 4.9 3,997 74 7,107.9 131.6
121 Highland County 2,214 4.6 108 1 4,878.0 45.2
122 Nelson County 14,812 4.4 887 12 5,988.4 81.0
123 Lee County 24,134 4.4 2,413 46 9,998.3 190.6
124 Dickenson County 14,960 4.4 921 15 6,156.4 100.3
125 King and Queen County 7,052 4.3 388 8 5,502.0 113.4
126 Northumberland County 12,223 4.2 741 20 6,062.3 163.6
127 Poquoson city 12,039 4.1 871 16 7,234.8 132.9
128 Fairfax city 23,865 3.1 550 19 2,304.6 79.6
129 Emporia city 5,381 3.0 669 42 12,432.6 780.5
130 Charlottesville city 47,042 2.8 4,017 55 8,539.2 116.9
131 Mathews County 8,796 2.6 595 12 6,764.4 136.4
132 Lancaster County 10,804 2.1 710 16 6,571.6 148.1
133 Middlesex County 10,700 1.7 569 20 5,317.8 186.9

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