Are iPhone 6 Suppliers Ready for a Sell-Off?

September 8, 2014 by Jon C. Ogg

The next iPhone, which is expected to have a larger screen, is predicted to meet with a massive consumer reception because it will close the gap in the size of the display with models from Samsung and rival phones using the Android platform from Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). In addition, Apple may discuss its first entry into the wearable technology market, with a device that the world has already christened the “iWatch.” 24/7 Wall St. wanted to take a brief look at the Apple suppliers that are expected to be potential winners from the launch.

As a reminder, many Apple suppliers are not allowed by Apple to confirm whether they are actually its suppliers. The implication here is that this means any would-be supplier could ultimately be left in a lurch. Another serious issue is that Samsung and other phone makers have likely anticipated a slowing trend in their own phones in the weeks or months after the iPhone 6 release, so they could have lowered or increased business with these same Apple suppliers.

If history holds true, the upcoming iPhone 6 should go on sale roughly two weeks after the announcement. As far as any other product releases, we will just have to wait to see what the company says before casting pre-judgment there.

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There is a maxim in the investment community that needs to be remembered ahead of Apple’s release: “Buy the rumor (hype), sell the news (event).” This is far from a certain strategy, but it is something that many investors are likely to consider this week.

One thing is known: as soon as these phones go on sale, teardowns will begin from websites and review sites to see exactly who and what is really inside the iPhone 6. Again, this means that there is still a degree of guesswork over the would-be Apple suppliers. Just because a company supplied parts in the past is no assurance that they will win today or tomorrow.

GT Advanced Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: GTAT) is a would-be winner, and its shares have more than doubled and then some in the past year or so. The company signed up Apple in October of last year and its sapphire-based materials are expected to be used to make the new iPhone’s screen tougher. The company is said to have received upfront payments of several hundred million dollars from Apple, yet it is impossible to know exactly how much of the business is heading here ultimately. A potential score is if sapphire spreads to other smartphones, but again we cannot jump to conclusions yet.

GT has recently traded at $17.30 with a market cap of almost $2.4 billion. Thomson Reuters projects that its 2014 revenues will be $625.4. It has a price target of $19.23, and its 52-week trading range is $6.28 to $20.54.

Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) is trading at a cheaper price on the surface when compared to other Apple suppliers based on its forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), but this DRAM and flash memory player has seen its shares skyrocket over the past year and a half.

Micron recently traded at $33.10 and has estimates for its 2014 revenues at $16.3 billion. The price target is $38.44, and the 52-week trading range is $15.30 to $34.85. Micron’s market cap is now above $35 billion.

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Avago Technologies Ltd. (NYSE: AVGO) rose handily two weeks ago after earnings, and it rose handily last week to new all-time highs. The company said that demand for chips for smartphones should see very strong growth next quarter due to a new phone model and a North American smartphone customer. Presumably that is Apple. Just keep in mind that Avago’s stock price has more than doubled in the past 12 months.

Avago has recently traded at $89.31 and has estimates for its 2014 revenues at $4.25 billion. It has a consensus price target of $91.52, and its 52-week trading range is $36.61 to $89.67, with that new high hit on Monday. Avago’s market cap is more than $22 billion.

InvenSense Inc. (NYSE: INVN) makes micro-electro-mechanical system gyroscopes for motion tracking devices. The chipmaker has been mentioned by numerous sources as an iPhone component supplier. The company also announced a new CFO in late August.

InvenSense shares recently traded at $24.26 and has estimates for its 2014 revenue at $365 million. Its price target is $28.43, and its 52-week trading range is $15.20 to $26.78. The company’s market cap is $2.15 billion, and shares have recently pulled back from highs.

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Nuance Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: NUAN) has said previously that its software was a part of Apple’s Siri audio assistant feature, but Nuance has reportedly been up for sale and has also been under less-insistent activist pressure. It is hard to know if the company will be a winner, particularly as other companies are looking to do whatever they can to have their own audio recognition and speech-to-text effort.

With shares trading at $16.95, the consensus analyst price target on Nuance is $19.00, and the market cap is $5.4 billion. Shares have traded in a 52-week range of $13.00 to $20.01. The consensus annual revenues are projected to be $1.98 billion for 2014 and $2.07 billion for 2015.

NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NASDAQ: NXPI) is said to already make a sensor hub for the iPhone 5s, but the speculation is that payments could be a huge win for the company. The company has recently been trading at $71.15, and it has estimates of its 2014 revenues at $5.58. NXP has a price target of $76.62, and its 52-week trading range is $35.09 to $72.18, with a market cap that is almost $18 billion.

OmniVision Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: OVTI) makes the sensors that power cameras in smartphones. Despite a drop in the stock after beating earnings expectations, this is only about 1% shy of a 52-week high. Its shares have recently traded at $28.03, and it has estimates for its 2014 revenues of $1.42 billion, with a market cap of $1.6 billion. It has a price target of $27.53, and a 52-week trading range of $13.55 to $28.34.

RF Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: RFMD) designs radio frequency solutions and wireless transceivers. Its shares have risen close to 150% year to date. The company’s shares recently traded at $12.18, and it has estimates for its 2014 revenues at $1.34 billion. It has a price target of $13.09, and its 52-week trading range is $4.50 to $12.98. RF Micro’s market cap is $3.5 billion.

Skyworks Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ: SWKS) is diversified in analog and RF devices, and it is considered a would-be iPhone 6 winner. The stock recently traded at $56.50, and the company has estimates for its 2014 revenues at $2.25 billion. The price target is $60.22, and the shares have a 52-week trading range of $23.27 to $57.18. Skyworks has a market cap of $10.6 billion.

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STMicroelectronics N.V. (NYSE: STM) has reportedly had its accelerometer and gyroscope sensors in various models of the iPhone and iPad in prior years. We do not yet know if it is a winner this time around. Its shares recently have traded at $8.49, and it has estimates for its 2014 revenues at $7.67 billion. The price target is $9.29, and the 52-week trading range is $7.20 to $10.00. STMicroelectronics comes with a $7.5 billion market cap.

Keep in mind that there are many suppliers of various aspects for the iPhone and competing smartphones. The risk is that not all companies will win, and some likely will lose. Another issue to consider is that these other companies may even win the business but do so as Apple squeezes down their operating margins under what was expected.

Stay tuned.

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