Why Some Analysts Think Sprint Is Finally Turning the Corner

January 27, 2016 by Jon C. Ogg

Is it possible that Sprint Corp. (NYSE: S) actually is turning the corner on a turnaround that seems to be a decade in the making? If you just looked at the earnings report this week, without comparisons and without reference elsewhere, you might think that Sprint is on its way out of existence. A second look would imply something else. It turns out the that earnings report was better than expected, and having Softbank as a majority holder means there might be some sticking power.

While we have already covered earnings in depth, 24/7 Wall St. wanted to see what some outsiders and analysts had to say about Sprint after its earnings. As a reminder, Sprint shares rose over 18% to $2.99 on Tuesday and was trading above $3.00 early Wednesday.

Sprint’s quarterly report beat the consensus loss estimate by $0.10, and it narrowed its loss substantially in the December quarter. Sprint raised its fiscal guidance for adjusted EBITDA of $7.7 billion to $8.0 billion from a prior $6.8 billion to $7.1 billion.

The company is now projecting full-year operating income of $100 million to $300 million, up from an operating loss of $50 million to $250 million. Management also issued preliminary fiscal year 2016 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $9.5 billion to $10.0 billion, helped by operating cost reductions and moving away from the handset subsidy model.

24/7 Wall St. has seen reports from several outside firms: Argus, Oppenheimer, Wells Fargo, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and more.


Wells Fargo’s Jennifer Fritzsche is one of the biggest Sprint fans out there. Her rating is Outperform and the firm’s official valuation range is $8.00 to $10.00. That is much higher than most. Her view was that total liquidity was $6 billion as of the third quarter, with another $600 million under vendor financing agreements for 2.5GHz equipment and $500 million additional capacity. The network-related financing entity with SoftBank could provide another $3 billion to $5 billion of incremental funding in fiscal 2016.

This is what the Wells Fargo report has to say about its valuation target and thesis behind Sprint:

Our valuation range ($8 to $10) is based on 6.5 to 7.3 times Fiscal 2016 estimates of Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA). The primary risks to our Sprint thesis include increased pricing pressure and churn due to slowing growth in the wireless business, the rapid decline in wireline voice revenue, and its LTE network build.

We believe Sprint is the most interesting stock on our wireless list right now. We view Sprint’s outlined path for Network Vision very positively. Potential catalysts include: continued M&A potential, margin expansion and deployment of 2.5GHz spectrum.

Oppenheimer’s Timothy Horan removed an effective Sell rating, with the formal upgrade to Perform from Underperform. He liked the improved network data and lower expenses. Horan said:

Sprint reported a solid CY4Q15, with churn of 1.6% versus our 1.7% estimate and a greatly lower cost structure with another $2 billion reduction in expenses in 2016. Free cash flow burn is high at approximately $500 million but should be positive in 2017. Management guided to strong EBITDA growth in 2016 to 2017. Positively, the network is improving, and this should continue, and subscriber trends have stabilized, although with lower average revenue per user and declining prepaid, both of which should persist for another few quarters. Sprint also now has a greatly improved liquidity position (vendor and handset financing). The company also has some price increases kicking in starting in February. We are upgrading S to Perform, and believe M&A is possible. The price increases and expense reductions are positive for the sector.

Independent research firm Argus has only a Hold rating on Sprint, but the firm’s primary point is that it sees signs of progress from Sprint’s December quarter. Despite a revenue drop, Argus also said that Sprint has made solid progress in subscriber retention and in new subscriber acquisitions. Its raised guidance was a boost as well, but the earnings guidance was said to be partly aided by this and has been due by cost cutting and financial engineering. Argus said:

Although we believe that Sprint has turned a corner, it remains uncertain if it can catch its larger rivals in an intensely competitive wireless market. We are narrowing our Fiscal Year 2015 loss forecast to $0.37 from $0.38 per share and maintaining our Fiscal Year 2016 loss forecast of $0.28 per share.

Sprint will have to create an organic turnaround as regulators will likely oppose any combination among the big four national wireless carriers — a significant challenge given white-hot competition and the commanding positions of industry leaders Verizon and AT&T. While T-Mobile had appropriated the industry challenger mantle, Sprint has come out with its own aggressive “Cut Your Bill in Half” promotion. Still, we question whether Sprint can upgrade its network fast enough to boost subscriber retention and match the customer experience provided by competitors.

S&P Capital IQ has a Hold rating, but it still has an upside price target of $4.00 (down from $5.00) on Sprint. S&P’s report said:

With Sprint undergoing a network overhaul, its free cash flow could continue to be pressured in the near term. This risk is only partly offset by our view of the company’s strong balance sheet and operating expense reductions.

We positively view revenue stabilization and postpaid net additions of 501,000 (366,000 phone). We applaud turnaround efforts/traction from leasing programs and lower churn (1.62%). We see greater focus towards reducing costs.


Merrill Lynch has an Underperform rating on Sprint. The research team there has a $2.60 price objective and said that their own view of Sprint’s guidance was not very enlightening. The revenue was under the firm’s target but the adjusted EBITDA was above the Merrill Lynch estimate. The firm’s view is that greater leased devices, lower transformational costs and expense cuts drove the EBITDA beat. Its investment rationale is as follows:

We believe Sprint shares are overvalued based on what is known about the combined Sprint/Clearwire/Softbank’s strategy and our forward looking estimates. Prior to being acquired, legacy Sprint traded at 5.7x forward EBITDA and now trades at a higher multiple. The net change in the competitive climate has been negative in the intervening time, and our growth expectations have not changed materially, leading to our Underperform rating.

As a reminder, a lot of Sprint’s upswing could easily be attributed to some serious short covering. The new short interest for mid-January was not out at the time this report was issued, but Sprint had over 200 million shares listed as short for each of the past three reports from 2015.

Trading at $3.05, Sprint has a 52-week range of $2.18 to $5.45. It has another thing going for it, if it ever becomes truly profitable on a consistent basis: its accumulated earnings deficit at the end of last September alone was approaching $6 billion, according to Google data.

Take This Retirement Quiz To Get Matched With A Financial Advisor (Sponsored)

Take the quiz below to get matched with a financial advisor today.

Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests.

Here’s how it works:
1. Answer SmartAsset advisor match quiz
2. Review your pre-screened matches at your leisure. Check out the
advisors’ profiles.
3. Speak with advisors at no cost to you. Have an introductory call on the phone or introduction in person and choose whom to work with in the future

Take the retirement quiz right here.