U.S. Department of the Treasury

Why the Return to an Inverted Yield Curve May Bring More Premature Recession Calls

The media seems to love reporting on anything and everything that might signal the next recession. If you went in a time machine back to the end of summer 2019, ...
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How $253 Trillion in Total Global Debt Measures Against the United States

It is no secret that the nations of the world have accumulated mountains of debt over time. It is also not just the nations and central banks that have accumulated ...
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Why No Major Interest Rate Changes Should Be Expected in 2020

Interest rates and inflation in America remain low by historical standards. As 2019 has now faded away and turned into 2020, investors, business owners and borrowers need to pay attention ...
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The October FOMC Meeting May Be the Last Rate Cut of 2019

The last week of October is going to be an important one for the global financial markets. As Europe and Japan have trillions of dollars worth of negative yields on ...
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Backward and Forward, San Francisco Fed Paper Assesses Negative US Interest Rates

The lowest interest rates can ever go is zero-point-zero percent. That's how things work in a vacuum. In the real world, negative interest rates are alive and well, and we ...
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Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Get Treasury Greenlight to Start Keeping Profits

Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of the Treasury published its plan to reform the relationship between the department and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-sponsored entities (GSEs) ...
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Evaluating the Trickle-Down Effect of Federal Funding Squeezes for States and Local Governments

With the deficit in the United States now over $22 trillion, there may come a day when deficits and credit actually matter again. Until then, Europe and Japan are operating ...
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When Will $1 Trillion Deficits Start to Matter?

With another round of Presidential candidate debates on the docket, it's time to talk about deficits. Realistically, it seems no one in Washington, D.C. has any great plans about how ...
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Overhauling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Won’t Be Easy or Cheap

Two government-sponsored entities (GSEs) hold about half of the nation's mortgage debt. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as the GSEs are known, were placed under Department of the Treasury conservatorship ...
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Defying Logic: Germany Sells 30-Year Bonds for Negative Yields

The media loves pointing to the inverted yield curve, negative interest rates and the imminent recession. There might be a reason why it matters, even if the media keeps jumping ...
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While Negative US Interest Rates Are Possible, Odds of Reality Look Less Than Zero

Many articles have pondered the short-term and long-term impacts of negative interest rates around the globe. Some of these concerns are recent, while some have persisted for years. One recent ...
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The Big Trade War If: What If China Decides to Sell its $1.11 Trillion in US Treasuries?

With the United States and China trade war becoming more fierce, the stock market tanked and the bond market rallied on news that China devalued its currency and is blocking ...
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China Lowering US Treasury Debt Holdings Brings More Risk to China Than US

The belief has become widespread that trade wars, particularly deep and long-lasting ones, result in no winners. The United States and China are now involved in the beginnings of a trade ...
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Does $66 Trillion in Government Debt Mean the World Is Drowning in Debt?

It is far from a secret that the United States and other nations around the world have what sounds like an insurmountable debt load. With trillions and trillions owed to ...
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Federal Reserve Payments to Treasury Decline With Balance Sheet Shrinking

The Federal Reserve announced on Thursday that it had sent payments of approximately $65.4 billion back to the U.S. Treasury from its estimated net income in 2018. The Federal Reserve ...
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