GDP and Jobless Claims Both Head Higher
December 20, 2012 by Jon C. Ogg
As far as GDP is concerned, this was yet another revision, and the final one (supposedly) to the third-quarter figure. Third-quarter GDP was revised higher to 3.1% from the prior 2.7%. Dow Jones and Bloomberg both were calling for 2.8% growth. The GDP deflator, the price index, was kept the same at 2.7%, and that matched the Bloomberg estimate from its pool of economists.
Weekly jobless claims are heading the wrong direction if the Fed’s 6.5% unemployment threshold for low rates is going to get any reprieve. Weekly claims rose by 17,000 to 361,000 last week, and that was after the prior week was revised higher by 1,000 claims. Dow Jones had an expectation of 361,000 and Bloomberg was slightly lower with a consensus of 359,000.
The GDP figure was revised higher, but this also reflects the data that had come in for the period of July to September. That was before the election, before the fiscal cliff and before some of the European resolutions had been more clear.
We do not expect the markets to be rocketed higher or lower on either one of these reports this morning.
JON C. OGG
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