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Chamath is naming the neoclouds he thinks get paid if open models take the top three spots, with Nebius and IREN leading his list. The data he is quoting shows open models at 78.4% of token volume on Vercel's AI Gateway.

Prediction: within 12 months, top three models will be open source. Economic winners will be the American clouds that serve them: Nebius Iren Baseten Together Fireworks https://t.co/IMXjkJxP37 [Quoted @rauchg]: Looks like today may be a record day for token volume % of open models on Vercel AI Gateway: 🟦 Open 78.4% 🟨 Closed 21.6% While spend 💲 usually tells a different story, #3 and #4 today are Moonshot AI & DeepSeek. Adding Z⁠.ai, their combined spend surpasses OpenAI (#2). https://t.co/vFMh3xEt83
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Chamath is betting the value in AI shifts from model owners to the inference clouds serving open weights, and he named four of them. The data he is quoting shows open models at 78.4% of token volume on Vercel's gateway.

Prediction: within 12 months, top three models will be open source. Economic winners will be the American clouds that serve them: Nebius Baseten Together Fireworks https://t.co/IMXjkJxP37 [Quoted @rauchg]: Looks like today may be a record day for token volume % of open models on Vercel AI Gateway: 🟦 Open 78.4% 🟨 Closed 21.6% While spend 💲 usually tells a different story, #3 and #4 today are Moonshot AI & DeepSeek. Adding Z⁠.ai, their combined spend surpasses OpenAI (#2). https://t.co/vFMh3xEt83
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