Is a Nine-Day Winning Streak in Emerging Market ETFs Too Much?

April 1, 2014 by Jon C. Ogg

Russia
Source: Thinkstock
How long should a winning streak really last in the stock market? A casual market observer might think the market has a 50-50 chance of being up or down on any given day, so what about when a market rises for nine straight days? Now, compound this nine-day winning streak with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (NYSEMKT: EEM) as the key emerging markets exchange traded funds (ETF).

After closing at $39.41 on March 18, 2014, the last down day in the market was on March 19, when this ETF closed down handily on active volume at $38.57. The difference here is massive as there has not been a losing day since:

  • March 31, 2014: $41.01
  • March 28, 2014: $40.74
  • March 27, 2014: $40.42
  • March 26, 2014: $39.90
  • March 25, 2014: $39.81
  • March 24, 2014: $39.36
  • March 21, 2014: $38.98
  • March 20, 2014: $38.74
  • March 19, 2014: $38.57
  • March 18, 2014: $39.41

What is happening is a backing off of the rate-hike timing, better economic data, hopes of a China stimulus, a decreasing of tensions with Russia over Crimea and Ukraine, and the S&P 500 Index hitting all-time highs. Another driving force is that many emerging markets have been battered.

In 2013, the iShares China Large-Cap Index (NYSEMKT: FXI) was down 2.1% and the WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (NYSEMKT: EPI) was down 9.3%. Even the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped Index (NYSEMKT: EWZ) fell by a whopping 17.5% in 2013. And the Market Vectors Russia ETF Trust (NYSEMKT: RSX) managed to drop almost 1% in 2013, but this was battered during the height of tensions with Russia and the West.

Keep in mind that the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (NYSEMKT: EEM) is dominated by the following 10 nations with a total weighting of 87.90%:

  • China 17.95%
  • South Korea 15.84%
  • Taiwan 11.94%
  • Brazil 11.01%
  • South Africa 7.73%
  • India 6.67%
  • Mexico 5.12%
  • Russia 5.09%
  • Malaysia 3.88%
  • Indonesia 2.66%

If the gains of 0.6% to $41.25 on the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets hold up on Tuesday, then the emerging markets ETF streak will be nine days, going into a key unemployment report in three trading days.

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