Four Problematic Dividend Hikes: Target, Best Buy, FedEx, Caterpillar

June 15, 2014 by Jon C. Ogg

Stock Split ImageInvestors still love dividends and stock buybacks. On top of these corporate governance and return of capital strategies in general, investors really love when they are holding a stock where the payouts are rising. Dividend hikes are supposed to be good in that they represent management’s confidence that the new payout rate can be maintained for years into the future. So, what happens when you see companies with problems raising their dividends?

This last week we saw two really odd dividend hikes that seemed out of place, followed by two other dividend hikes which were less problematic but still with issues. Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) had its annual meeting, and delivered what just felt like a crazy dividend hike. Things are not exactly great yet at Best Buy Co. (NYSE: BBY) either, but the electronics and appliances retail giant also boosted its dividend.

Then there is the case of FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), where things are great at one and still questionable at another — despite a stellar performance.

24/7 Wall St. has ranked these in order of how problematic these dividend hikes are, with the most problematic first.

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Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) is one where we gave a more detailed outlook, but the hike here just seems like management decided it better go for bust or go home. The retail giant is not past its woes of a massive security breach, and the company canned its CEO. Still, its dividend was raised to $0.52 from $0.43 per share — a payout boost of some 21%, at a time when it is still recovering.

Target’s $57.23 share price and the new payout generates a dividend yield of more than 3.6%. This is excessively higher than other retailers in the S&P 500 Index.

Maybe Target is merely trying to signal that the drop from a high above $73 is just making this an accidentally high dividend. The question is whether people believe it. At $57.23, the consensus analyst price target is only $59.33. Very few analysts and investors expect to see the stock back above $70 any time soon.

Best Buy Co. (NYSE: BBY) raised its dividend to $0.19 from $0.17, on a per share and per quarter basis. With a $28.64 price, the new dividend yield is 2.65%. This might not be high in terms of DJIA stocks, but this is getting up there for a retailer. Now consider that the $28.64 price is compared to a 52-week range of $22.15 to $44.66.

Best Buy’s turnaround here was up handily from the absolute lows, but the company does not seem to be able to escape its earnings and revenue woes just yet. And this means that best Buy is betting all of its eggs on a strong Christmas season, because the fourth quarter is worth 50% more in revenues over other quarters and is worth exponentially more in earnings.

At $28.64, Best Buy’s consensus analyst price target is $32.67. Very few analysts and investors expect that $40 and higher share price to come back any time soon.

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FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) raised its payout to $0.20 from $0.15 this last week. While this is a 33% payout hike, FedEx still has a stubbornly low dividend yield of 0.6%. Its $140 share price compares to a Thomson Reuters earnings expectation of $6.68 per share this year and $8.77 per share next year. The $0.80 annualized payout rate would need to be raised threefold before coming close to rivaling that of UPS.

FedEx is still prevented from raising its payout too much, but at some point investors should start to demand more. That being said, its $140.27 share price compares to a 52-week range of $94.60 to $144.99. Thomson Reuters has a consensus price target of $154.78.

The real problem for FedEx is not that it can’t afford the payout hike nor that it is overstepping its bounds. It just simply needs to catch up to UPS and the market. After all, who really cares about a 0.6% payout?

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) is probably the least problematic dividend hike for shareholders of these four companies. Still, Caterpillar’s share rise may be far ahead of its real business recovery with flattish emerging market demand. The industrial equipment giant hiked its payout by 17% up to $0.70 per quarter from $0.60. This generates a yield jump from 2.2% to just over 2.6%.

A $2.80 annualized payout may seem low against $6.21 in expected earnings per share, but it still represents a 45% payout ratio — higher than Caterpillar has offered before. Many of Caterpillar’s growth markets and segments remain questionable, and Caterpillar likely has much of its cash outside of the U.S. due to its huge international sales presence.

At $106.77, Caterpillar rose much more than the early 2014 bull-bear scenario would have projected. Its 52-week range is $80.86 to $109.50, and the consensus analyst price target is now up to almost $112.

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Again, dividend hikes are generally good. These four dividend hikes just all stood out as having some questions to them. Serious questions are there on two of the dividend hikes, and two of the dividend hikes come with at least some questions to consider.

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